NFL MVP 2025 Odds, History, and Predictions

NFL MVP 2025

When it comes to the NFL MVP award, history is clear: quarterbacks have dominated the honor, especially in the modern era. Since 1957, quarterbacks have claimed this trophy 48 times — far outpacing any other position. In fact, over the last 25 years, Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback to break the quarterback stranglehold — and it took a near-record-breaking season for him to do so. In the last decade, this has really been a showcase for elite quarterbacks, with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen being the last three winners.

If you need another reason to view this as a quarterback-only market, how about looking at the season Saquon Barkley had in 2024? The running back rushed for 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns for an Eagles team that won the Super Bowl. He also had 33 catches for 278 yards and two scores as a receiver out of the backfield. If that wasn’t good enough for a skill position player to win MVP, is there any reason to look away from the quarterback spot in 2025? Running backs have barely had success when looking at the recent history of this award, and wide receivers and defensive players never get any recognition. 

Given that historical context, let’s look at some quarterbacks that could be worth betting to win the MVP award this upcoming season. 

Lamar Jackson (+550) 

Jackson’s 2024 season was impeccable. He threw for 4,172 yards with 41 touchdowns and only four interceptions, and he also rushed for 915 yards and four touchdowns. On top of that, Jackson led the NFL in passer rating (119.6) and QBR (77.3). Jackson was also PFF’s highest-graded quarterback (94.9) — and sixth-best quarterback since 2006. 

In pretty much every way imaginable, Jackson topped his 2023 MVP campaign. Unfortunately for him, that wasn’t enough for him to win it in back-to-back years — or to add to a trophy room that already includes a 2019 MVP award. 

Allen did have an awesome season for the Bills, so it’s hard to say he wasn’t deserving of his MVP honors. But it definitely felt like voter fatigue did Jackson in. Well, now that Jackson isn’t the reigning MVP entering the 2025 season, perhaps voters will be open to giving him the award for a third time. 

The Ravens are odds-on favorites to win the AFC North, and this is once again looking like a team that will contend to win the AFC — and possibly the Super Bowl. That means Baltimore should win a ton of games. When you combine that with the fact that Jackson should put up astronomical numbers, it’s hard not to like him at +550 odds. 

Baltimore also went out and added DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason. At 33 years old, Hopkins’ best days are certainly behind him, but he’s still a big body that should give the Ravens a jump-ball, box-out threat that they’ve lacked in recent years. This is the best group of skill position players that Jackson has ever had. 

Jayden Daniels (+850) 

While PFF had Jackson as the best quarterback in football last year, Daniels was fifth in his rookie season. The Offensive Rookie of the Year threw for 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns and only nine interceptions, and he also rushed for 891 yards with six scores. 

Of course, we have seen some sophomore slumps out of some high-level quarterbacks, with C.J. Stroud being a very recent example. But Daniels feels like he’s going to rise above that. 

Teams might have more film to work with when trying to slow Daniels down, but Daniels’ skill set could render some of that useless. He’s accurate to every part of the field, he’s bold in attacking tight windows and he’s a flat-out special runner. 

The Commanders have also invested in Daniels’ success, trading for an elite pass-blocking left tackle in Laremy Tunsil and a dangerous play-making weapon in Deebo Samuel. Daniels will now have more time to throw, and he’ll have a real group of pass catchers to work with. When you combine that with the fact that Washington improved its defense, it’s hard not to like Daniels as a legitimate MVP threat. 

It’s not crazy to think the Commanders are in for an 11- or 12-win season. Washington won 12 games last year, and this roster is better than it was a year ago. Also, while you can use the sophomore season against Daniels, he’ll also have a better understanding of how to beat opposing defenses. He’s also going to be more comfortable in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, which should open up a little with improved personnel. 

If the Commanders do hit double-digit wins again, Daniels should get more MVP buzz now that he’s not a rookie. This is a dynamic player that is ready to crash the table with the other top-tier quarterbacks in this league. 

Baker Mayfield (40-1)

Mayfield is a compelling dark horse candidate. Last year, the fiery signal caller posted career-best numbers: 4,500 passing yards (third in the NFL), 41 touchdowns (tied for second), a 106.8 passer rating and a league-leading 71.4% completion rate. Those marks not only reflect elite efficiency but also highlight his ability to be the engine of a top-five offense that averaged 29.5 points per game — and finished fifth in EPA per play (0.133). 

Mayfield’s leadership and improved decision-making — cutting down on turnovers while maintaining aggressive play — have been central to Tampa Bay’s offensive resurgence. 

Working against Mayfield is the fact that he’ll be working with his third offensive coordinator in as many years. Dave Canales did so well with the Buccaneers that he got the head coaching gig for the Panthers. Liam Coen then took Tampa Bay’s offense a step further, earning himself the Jaguars job. Now, it’ll be Josh Grizzard, the Bucs passing game coordinator last year, calling the shots. However, Grizzard would be foolish not to keep things extremely simple in 2025. He’ll stick to what has worked with Mayfield, and that should mean another outrageous year for the former No. 1 pick. 

Mayfield’s supporting cast remains strong, as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are back. Godwin might take some time to get right after dislocating his ankle last season, but the team has plenty of talent to work with while he focuses on getting healthy. Jalen McMillan showed promise last year, and the team used a first-round pick Emeka Egbuka. Don’t be surprised if the latter makes his mark right away. The Ohio State product looks like a future star. 

Realistically, if Mayfield maintains or improves his 2024 form and leads the Buccaneers to a division title, he could emerge as a legitimate MVP contender in 2025. Though it would be nice if the NFC South winner is a little better than it has been the last couple of years. Mayfield likely needs to win 11 or 12 games in order to actually have a chance at this. But that’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Now let’s get some other opinions and see who our VSiN hosts and experts like for NFL MVP:

Matt Youmans

Joe Burrow (+650)

Any futures bet on the Bengals is tied to their below-average defense, so it seems smarter to bank on the quarterback and an offense that ranked No. 1 in passing (273 YPG) and sixth in scoring (27.8 PPG). Burrow led the NFL in passing yards (4,918) and touchdowns (43). His injury history is a concern, yet with receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and tight end Mike Gesicki, the pieces remain in place for Burrow to top 5,000 yards. If Cincinnati is a playoff team, and that should happen, Burrow will be a top contender for MVP.

—

Pauly Howard

Brock Purdy (30/1)

In 17 of the last 18 years, a QB has won the award. Ignore other positions. The path is there for the Niners to win 13 games, get the No. 1 seed, and Purdy has great numbers like two years ago.

—

Matt Brown

Matthew Stafford (50/1) 

I have made a case for this bet on several shows on the network, so let’s get it from spoken word into print. I love me some Rams this year, and in turn, love me some Matthew Stafford. Of course, I love the addition of Davante Adams, but I’m not sure enough is being made about this offensive line. I have them as a top-five unit headed into the season, with top-three upside. Destroyed by injuries last year, they’ll enter 2025 healthy, giving Stafford the potential for massive numbers. 

It’s also a ‘make today’ bet as opposed to a ‘wait for a better number’ bet. The Rams play the Texans, Titans, Eagles, Colts, and 49ers in their first five games. While a road game with the Eagles will be tough, a win is not out of the range of outcomes. Taking down a 49ers team that I’m lower on than most, I could see the Rams sitting 5-0 headed to Baltimore with a massive game against the Ravens. If any of this plays out, Stafford’s 50-1 is likely to be 20-1 or shorter. I have a whole Rams portfolio of Stafford, NFC West, and NFC champs. 

—

Kelley Bydlon

Matthew Stafford (45/1)

Here’s my one Rams high-upside play. Yeah, he’s getting older. Yeah, there were rumors of him leaving in the offseason. But Matt Stafford can still sling it, and I love the offseason addition of Davante Adams. I like Cooper Kupp, but this is an upgrade. 

This play is really all about the number though. In reality, I really think MVP will come down to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson once again, but I see a lot of names after those two at the top that I don’t think have that much better of a shot at winning this than Stafford. 

—

Adam Burke

Joe Burrow (+650)

Shop around as always, but Burrow’s +650 price as the third favorite at DraftKings seems pretty attractive. While it was too little, too late last season for the Bengals, Burrow won Comeback Player of the Year on the heels of five straight wins to finish out the season. Admittedly, I am skeptical of new DC Al Golden, so the Bengals are likely going to have to outgun opponents to win games and that should allow Burrow to put up mammoth numbers yet again.

Last season, he led the league in completions, attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns under first-year OC Dan Pitcher. Pitcher is back again and so are Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Higgins nearly had 1,000 yards and missed five games. Seven of Cincy’s eight losses came in one-score games and the schedule is a bit more manageable this season.

It’s not a sexy price or a long shot pick, but the Bengals have a very good shot to win the division this season in my estimation and if Burrow puts up similar or potentially better numbers in the process, this is an alternate way of playing Bengals +230 to win the AFC North.

—

Nick Whalen

Jared Goff (30/1)

This is more about the price, and spinning a narrative, than anything else. Goff finished fifth in MVP voting a year ago — in a stacked field — which feels like it could be his peak, given where he stacks up, reputation-wise, relative to Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. However, part of the narrative with Goff is that he’s being carried by superior talent and coaching. Most of that surrounding talent remains, but with Ben Johnson now in Chicago, the spotlight will be firmly on Goff to prove that he can remain an elite quarterback without (arguably) the best offensive coordinator in football. If Goff can virtually match last season’s production, and the Lions can again push for 14 or 15 wins, his name will have to be in the conversation. Of course, the problem with betting a longer-shot like Goff is it essentially requires other contenders to fall off, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that the likes of Allen, and especially Burrow and Jackson, could struggle to match their ultra-elite 2024 production. If you want to look in another direction, Dan Campbell for Coach of the Year (22/1) follows a similar narrative.

—

Jensen Lewis

Justin Herbert 18/1

—

Sean Green

Jalen Hurts +2000

—

Will Hill

Josh Allen