NFL MVP Best Bets for 2023

By
Zachary Cohen
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625
 

Best bets for the 2023 NFL MVP

Last season, Patrick Mahomes took home the second Most Valuable Player award of his six-year NFL career. Mahomes did it by throwing for 5,250 yards with 41 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions while adding another 358 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs were the top-seeded team in the AFC, going 14-3 on the year and ultimately earning a 38-35 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. 

 

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Mahomes is once again favored to win this award, and it’s hard to argue with his candidacy. However, it’s also difficult to ignore voter fatigue. Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021, but that is something that has only happened six times in NFL history — with Peyton Manning being responsible for two instances. 

Voters generally want to try and spread things out to create new narratives, and it’s not like there’s a shortage of options when looking for players that can win. The talent pool at the quarterback position is incredibly rich these days, with multiple teams having signal-callers that are capable of taking home an award like this one.   

Who is the best of the bunch when it comes to the chalkier options?

Mahomes is listed at +700 to win MVP next season, with Joe Burrow (+750), Josh Allen (+800) and Jalen Hurts (+800) sitting right behind him. We already made a small case for why Mahomes isn’t the right pick here, but are any of them worth a play? We can get behind a bet on Allen. 

Last year, Allen was the preseason favorite to win MVP. The 27-year-old ultimately failed to get the job done, but he still turned in an MVP-worthy season. Allen threw for 4,283 yards with 35 touchdowns and 14 picks last year, and he also rushed for 762 yards with seven touchdowns. Those numbers were good for third place in MVP voting, and there are reasons to believe that Allen will play a lot better in 2023-24. 

Not many people want to come out and say it, but the Bills’ receiving core wasn’t all that good last season. Sure, Stefon Diggs is a bonafide superstar, but Gabriel Davis didn’t live up to expectations as the team’s second wideout. And Buffalo really seemed to miss having a target-eating option in the short-to-intermediate portion of the field. But the Bills ended up using the 25th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on tight end Dalton Kincaid. The Stanford product has all the makings of a Pro Bowl-caliber player, and he should open up this offense in a whole new way. 

With Kincaid in the mix, it wouldn’t be surprising if Allen were to cut down on his interceptions while also doing a better job of increasing his passing efficiency. And when you combine that with his ability to run the football, it’s hard not to love him as an MVP bet. 

 

Is Aaron Rodgers worth betting in his first season with the New York Jets? 

After 18 seasons with the Green Bay Packers, Rodgers was traded to New York in the offseason. He’ll enter the year with a lot of eyeballs looking in his direction, and that’s a good thing as long as he can perform at a high level. 

Rodgers threw for 3,695 yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season, and he did so with a miserable supporting cast. Rodgers’ top wideouts were Allen Lazard and rookie Christian Watson, who entered the league with concerns over how soon he’d be able to produce. Now, he’ll be throwing to a legitimate star in Garrett Wilson, and Lazard comes over as the team’s second-best wideout. The Jets also have guys like Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman Jr., Denzel Mims and Randall Cobb in the mix. So, there’s depth at the wide receiver position, and Rodgers should be able to take advantage of that. New York also has talent in the backfield, which will only make things easier on the passing game. 

Rodgers has a lot of familiarity with the system New York is putting in place, as Nathaniel Hackett was essentially handpicked to be the future Hall of Famer’s offensive coordinator. The two loved working with one another in Green Bay, and Hackett is going to build everything around Rodgers’ strengths. That means there won’t be much of a learning curve here. Rodgers should be ready to rock from day one. 

If New York wins 10 or 11 games and ends up in the playoff picture, how can Rodgers not be the pick to win this thing? Everybody loves a good story, and this would definitely qualify as one. So, while there are reasons to doubt Rodgers’ ability to turn in an MVP-worthy season at this point in his career, just remember that narratives drive voting. And if Rodgers is in the conversation, his name might carry enough weight to push him to a win. At +1400 odds, you might want to bank on that. 

 

Is Trevor Lawrence ready to make a push? 

Last season, we debated whether Justin Herbert was ready to join the league’s elite and contend for MVP. This year, Lawrence is the young gun that seems poised to make the leap. The 23-year-old threw for 4,113 yards with 25 touchdowns and only eight picks last season, and he also performed at a high level in the postseason. 

Jacksonville now gets Calvin Ridley back from a season-long suspension for sports gambling. In Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram, Lawrence has one of the better groups of pass catchers in football. The former Clemson star should benefit from Ridley’s presence immediately. 

Lawrence will also simply be better with this being his second year in Doug Pederson’s offense. Lawrence dealt with all kinds of nonsense in his rookie season, with Urban Meyer being one of the most disastrous one-year coaches in NFL history. Lawrence needed stability, and Pederson brought that, getting the absolute best out of the young signal-caller. 

In Lawrence’s second year under center, the Jaguars became a playoff team and the quarterback became a Pro Bowler. But Lawrence will be expected to take another sizable step forward in his third pro season, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he joins the MVP conversation. 

At +1400 odds, you can do a lot worse than taking a flier on this play. Lawrence also has the luxury of playing one of the easiest schedules in football. He should easily lead the Jaguars to the top of the AFC South standings, and anything more than that is just gravy. 

 

Are there any darkhorse picks worthy of consideration? 

Two darts that might be worth throwing are Geno Smith (+3500) and Russell Wilson (+3500). 

Smith is coming off a year in which he unexpectedly threw for 4,282 yards with 30 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. And while a lot of people expected Seattle to draft his successor in the 2023 NFL Draft, the team went defense with its first selection. Then, the Seahawks got Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba later in the draft. 

Smith now has one of the most explosive groups of receivers in the league, with Smith-Njigba joining the highly productive duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. This offense should be a lot tougher to defend next season, and Smith should be a lot sharper in his second full year as a starter. He also should be rather confident after having signed a three-year, $105 million deal after the season. Smith is no longer looking over his shoulder. This is his show, and the Seahawks have a lot of faith in him. 

Perhaps Smith’s ceiling is making the Pro Bowl, as he did in the 2022 season. But at these long odds, it might be worth putting a quarter-unit on this and hoping for a bit more. It’s hard to ignore just how bad the NFC might be next season, so a better-than-expected year for Seattle just might put Smith in the mix. 

As for Wilson, it’s hard to put into words how big of a failure last season was. “Mr. Unlimited” proved to be nothing but limited in his first year with the Broncos, but let’s not overlook the fact that Hackett looked completely overwhelmed in his first year as the team’s head coach. And Wilson also showed up to Denver in pretty lousy shape. 

Wilson now has one of the game’s brightest offensive minds calling plays for him, as the Broncos brought in Sean Payton during the offseason. Payton has had success with short, immobile quarterbacks before, so even if Wilson never regains his athleticism, there’s still hope he can be effective in this offense. But Wilson has also done a lot of work on his body since the season ended, which should help him regain some of his ability to extend plays.

The Broncos have a ton of talent at the wide receiver position, so it isn’t crazy to think that this can become an explosive offense again. The question is whether Denver has a shot at becoming a playoff team in a stacked division — and conference. The team will need to do so in order for Wilson to have a chance of winning. But if he does look like the Wilson of old, Denver should be a much better team. With that said, it isn’t the worst idea in the world to bet on this. Payton wouldn’t have taken the Broncos job if he didn’t believe Wilson could be fixed. 

 

Should any non-quarterbacks be considered? 

The short answer is no, not really. The last time a quarterback didn’t win MVP was in 2012 when Adrian Peterson — who somehow still isn’t officially retired — rushed for 2,097 yards and 12 touchdowns for the Minnesota Vikings. Since then, there have been some special seasons out of plenty of running backs and wide receivers, but that gears more towards the Offensive Player of the Year award. 

If Cooper Kupp didn’t bring home the MVP after catching 145 passes for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2021, it genuinely feels impossible for a skill position player to win this again. However, if there’s anybody worth betting, it’s Christian McCaffrey at +8000. 

In no way is this us touting McCaffrey as a good pick to win the award. But if you are absolutely desperate for a non-quarterback play, this is it. The San Francisco 49ers still have a strong offensive line, and Kyle Shanahan will find all sorts of ways to get McCaffrey touches. The 49ers also have a lot of question marks at the quarterback position, which puts a lot on the shoulders of the two-time Pro Bowl running back. 

Last year, in 17 games split between the Carolina Panthers and 49ers, McCaffrey ended up rushing for 1,139 yards with eight touchdowns. He also finished the season with 85 receptions for 741 yards and five scores. McCaffrey was unstoppable once he arrived in the Bay Area, too. So, with a full season of playing in this offense, he could put up astronomical numbers. And he’d deserve a lot of the credit if San Francisco were to be one of the NFC’s elite teams again.

 

 

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