MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
We are down to just two weeks left in the 2026 MLB season, and there is still a ton left to sort out in the playoff pictures in both leagues. Of course, as always, the bullpens are going to have a huge say in both who makes the playoffs and then who thrives while there. They have been a huge factor in September, as several teams have climbed in the standings lately in large part because of their ability to close out games. In this week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update, I will go over some of that and discuss some of the highlights we have seen recently.
In terms of the playoff picture, Toronto and Cleveland are currently locked in a battle for the final AL wild card spot and are among the top movers on the list below in terms of their bullpen ratings. The Guardians are also in the running for the AL Central Division crown and start a huge series with the team they are challenging on Monday. Interestingly, the teams share identical team bullpen ratings. Meanwhile, some of the former elite bullpens in the league have leveled off lately, and the likes of Milwaukee, Boston, Atlanta, and San Diego could have some concerns in that regard as we approach October. In fact, all four of those teams’ bullpen ratings have dropped substantially over the last month or so. The Red Sox are still #1 on my bullpen rankings, but they have had their share of difficulties of late.
It may be a sign of the upcoming postseason being up for grabs, but as of Monday, there are a season-high seven teams that currently boast Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings of between 21-30. That is a season high, and all seven teams on that list have the playoffs in their sights. Of course, there are also a season-high four teams with ratings of -24 or worse. This season has seen some bigger separations than I have grown used to. Among the teams with some particularly bad ratings right now, Seattle (-16) and Texas (-24) have made things very difficult for themselves in terms of reaching the postseason because of their late-game failures.
Speaking of late-game failures, this past week was one of the worst of the season overall for bullpen performances. In fact, the average drop for team bullpen ratings this week was -1.5 per team, and 12 of the league’s 30 teams dropped by 3 rating points or more. You probably noticed if you were wagering the games consistently over the past seven days.
Since the last MLB Bullpen Systems update two weeks ago, the results of said systems have been modest overall, with some thriving, some performing below their normal levels. With that said, before I present all of the updated system numbers, here are some of the best highlights from the last two weeks:
– Correlation system #3, the one indicating to back teams with elite starters AND bullpens performed remarkably over the last two weeks, going 34-12 for +17 units. Although this one has been a little slower than usual this season, it is based on a solid foundation that the combination of great starting and relief pitching is worth investing in. It is now up over 26 units over the last month and is on the verge of finally going profitable for the season.
– Our big FADE CORRELATION system angles, 1, 2, and 4, have all continued to thrive, and each is at least -7% ROI for the year. If you consider the average loss percentage is about 7%, playing each of these angles have proven advantageous for the season. If there is a champion for the season of the three, it appears to be Correlation system #2, which suggests that not even a strong bullpen can make up for a poor starting pitcher. Fading teams in this situation has lost -19.3% ROI!
– Hopefully you have noticed it long before this article, but “Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks.” This system has been incredibly reliable this season, in both the two-game and three-game thresholds. On 2-game winning streaks, worse bullpen teams are 182-214 for -44.78 units (ROI -11.3%). On three-game winning streaks, the ROI is even lower, 79-102 for -23.29 units and a solid ROI of -12.9%.
It has been an impressive run since the All-Star Break for almost every one of the systems we provide for you on a daily basis in our MLB Analytics Reports. I trust that if you are reading this piece, you are also utilizing those daily gold mines to your advantage.
I will bring you our final MLB Bullpen Systems update of the season in two weeks, and I will discuss my thoughts on each of the bullpens for the playoff teams at that time. However, without further ado, here are the various system records with just two weeks left in the 2026 season that we will track every day. Note that on occasion I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The EASIEST way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20, went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and an ROI of 0%. For 2026, this EASY system has underperformed by recent standards and despite a better run out of the break, the season-long record is 1015-910 in all for -79.69 units, and an ROI of -4.1%.
This percentage ROI loss still outperforms the average bettor loss for playing every game, which for this season to date is about -7.1%. That is an “advantage” of almost 3% simply by taking the team with a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating every game. Furthermore, we are winning 52.7% of our games. That said, betting almost every game is a tough strategy regardless, even with the new dime lines factored in. It’s usually the case that easiest isn’t always best, although the nearly dead-even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for bigger edges, and at this point I can’t honestly advise playing every game on the easiest system. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 62-55 for -10.26 units for an ROI of -8.8%.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. For the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 91-131 for -42.79 units and an ROI of -19.3%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but have been roaring back recently, including 34-12 for +17.04 units over the last two weeks! For the season, they are 290-203 start for -0.91 units and an ROI of -1.9%. This one has two weeks of games left to get in the black.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a couple of weeks left, they are now 150-223 start for -26.12 units (-7% ROI) after losing about 36 units over the three months.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
BACK teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are just under the profitability line at 206-167 for -1.01 units, but at -0.3 ROI, still way better than the average loss.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 104-56 for -20.38 units, ROI -12.7%!
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 44-22 but for -9.73 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-2025 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 43-26 start for -15.62 units, and an ROI of -22.6%!
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The ’26 season has been slower than usual, 304-369 for -24.98 units, ROI of -3.2%.
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For ’26 so far, these teams are 248-180 for +35.33 units, an ROI of +10.8%.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 182-214 start for -44.78 units (ROI -11.3%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the ‘26 results so far show a record of 79-102 for -23.29 units and a solid ROI of -12.9%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 159-184 for -0.03 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It is on the ’26 Bullpen System Reports once again and, with two weeks left, owns a record of 190-155 for -17.53 units.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 113-98 for -4.64 units. This angle also has gained solid momentum since the break, however, including 17-6 for +11.58 units over the last four weeks.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 9/13)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. BOSTON: 3.13
2. NY YANKEES: 3.21
3. ATLANTA: 3.43
4. SAN DIEGO: 3.43
5. MILWAUKEE: 3.48
6. CLEVELAND: 3.61
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. ATHLETICS: 5.44
29. WASHINGTON: 5.12
28. KANSAS CITY: 5
27. COLORADO: 4.98
26. CINCINNATI: 4.85
25. MINNESOTA: 4.85
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. BOSTON: 1.17
2. NY YANKEES: 1.2
3. ATLANTA: 1.2
4. TAMPA BAY: 1.21
5. SAN DIEGO: 1.23
6. ARIZONA: 1.23
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.52
29. ATHLETICS: 1.5
28. COLORADO: 1.5
27. MINNESOTA: 1.5
26. WASHINGTON: 1.46
25. CINCINNATI: 1.46
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.29
2. LA ANGELS: 9.89
3. PHILADELPHIA: 9.79
4. LA DODGERS: 9.76
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.48
6. SAN DIEGO: 9.39
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CLEVELAND: 10.29
29. LA ANGELS: 9.89
28. PHILADELPHIA: 9.79
27. LA DODGERS: 9.76
26. PITTSBURGH: 9.48
25. SAN DIEGO: 9.39
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
1. CLEVELAND: 0.87
2. DETROIT: 0.95
3. SAN DIEGO: 1
4. TORONTO: 1.06
5. ARIZONA: 1.14
6. BOSTON: 1.2
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
30. COLORADO: 2.21
29. KANSAS CITY: 1.77
28. MINNESOTA: 1.72
27. CINCINNATI: 1.7
26. WASHINGTON: 1.66
25. PHILADELPHIA: 1.61
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, momentum, and even manager strength of usage.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday (8/31):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. SAN FRANCISCO: +9 points
2. DETROIT: +5
2. CHICAGO CUBS: +5
4. TORONTO: +4
4. CLEVELAND: +4
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. COLORADO: -12 points
2. MILWAUKEE: -10
3. PHILADELPHIA: -8
4. WASHINGTON: -6
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 9/14)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. BOSTON: 30
2. SAN DIEGO: 29
3. NY YANKEES: 27
4. CLEVELAND: 24
5. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 24
6. MILWAUKEE: 23
7. TORONTO: 21
8. HOUSTON: 17
9. ATLANTA: 16
10. PITTSBURGH: 12
11. TAMPA BAY: 11
12. LA DODGERS: 10
13. NY METS: 10
14. ARIZONA: 9
15. BALTIMORE: 9
16. DETROIT: 7
17. CHICAGO CUBS: 5
18. MIAMI: 1
19. MINNESOTA: 0
20. SAN FRANCISCO: 0
21. LA ANGELS: 0
22. PHILADELPHIA: -5
23. ATHLETICS: -13
24. CINCINNATI: -14
25. KANSAS CITY: -15
26. SEATTLE: -16
27. TEXAS: -24
28. COLORADO: -24
29. ST. LOUIS: -25
30. WASHINGTON: -29
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
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