MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, September 22.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees — Game 1
Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez is pitching to loads of contact, getting only 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings, yet has a 2.94 ERA with a 3.98 fielding independent and 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed. Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon also appears due for regression, as he has a 2.95 ERA with a 3.69 fielding independent while doing the opposite of Martinez: getting 9.8 strikeouts and issuing 4.5 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Game 1 Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
6:35 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Both starting pitchers are not getting strikeouts at this advanced stage of their careers, as Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer owns a 6.07 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings while getting only 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings, though he has improved in the second half of the season with a 4.26 ERA since the All-Star Break. Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt is allowing only 0.9 home runs per nine innings, but is also getting only 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings and has a 4.64 ERA.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Orioles Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
6:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante pitches to a lot of contact with 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.70 ERA this season. He is backed up by a Cardinals bullpen that is 24th in ERA at 4.52, while their offense is third in road scoring with 5.25 runs per game. Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones has a 4.17 ERA with 10.8 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Pirates Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
6:45 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox
Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick has been superb this season with a 2.57 ERA, 9.4 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings, but does have to face a Red Sox lineup that leads the American League in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 4.7 runs per game. The Guardians offense is 26th in scoring overall this season with 4.2 runs per game, but since August 1 is sixth in scoring with 4.8 runs per game. Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle owns a 3.02 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings, but that ERA rises to 3.55 at home.
Pick: Guardians vs. Red Sox Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.4
7:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees — Game 2
Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has been one of the most balanced and steady pitchers in the league, posting a 2.78 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts and 1.6 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that is eighth in ERA since July 1 at 3.57. Max Fried has a 2.63 ERA with 8.5 strikeouts and 0.3 home runs per nine innings allowed, but is supported by a lineup that is 25th in scoring since June 15 with less than 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Rays Moneyline +118 and Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays +101 and Total 7.3
8:05 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers
Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea has struggled of late, posting a 4.74 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings, with at least four runs allowed in five of his past six starts. Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has a 4.67 ERA this season, though his 3.89 fielding independent, 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings and only one home run per nine innings point toward positivity. He is supported by a bullpen that, since July 1, is 27th in ERA at 5.11, while the Mets are 21st in this span with a 4.41 ERA. Since August 1, the Mets are eighth in the league in scoring with over 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Mets vs. Rangers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
10:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers will take the wholesale approach on Tuesday, with Roki Sasaki likely to contribute in some form or capacity for a team that, since August 1, is 11th in bullpen ERA at 3.54. The Padres give Michael King the start, who owns a 3.03 ERA but a much higher 4.16 fielding independent with 3.4 walks and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Dodgers lineup that, despite having injuries, is fourth in the league in scoring with five runs per game.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -134
