We’re just three weeks into the NFL season and we already have to talk about bye weeks. This Sunday is the first time that two teams will be playing pre-bye week games, with Kansas City and Carolina being the first group to get the week off. The Chiefs visit the Raiders in a battle of 3-0 AFC West teams, while the Panthers take center stage on “Sunday Night Football,” hosting Detroit.

The weeks before and after a team’s bye week have proved to be very telling. They are important because they affect routines, momentum and player injury availability as well. Historically, some franchises and coaches have been very good at dealing with bye weeks and others not. Furthermore, some teams have seen their performance levels vary greatly when going into the bye week as opposed to coming out. As such, the various bye week scenarios can make for great wagering opportunities.

Since the league went to a 17-game schedule, the byes have been spread out. This year, there are teams with pre-bye week games in the first weekend of October and others with pre-bye week games in the first week of December, all the way into Week 13. 

Today I will address the pre-bye week trends and systems. In two weeks, I’ll follow up by delving into the post-bye week trends and systems. The qualifying trends and systems will also be included in our weekly NFL Analytics Reports. 

The NFL is a routine-laden league, and anything that can break that routine for a team can offer bettors an opportunity. And I have found that the bye week is the most influential schedule situation. Each team gets one, and where it is placed and how the teams react in and out of that bye week can often make the difference of one or two wins.

This article will cover pre-bye week trends for all 32 teams. Before we go team-by-team, here are 10 league-wide pre-bye week systems that you’ll want to take advantage of over the next couple of months:

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play ON any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 58-25-1 ATS since 2013, 69.9%, +30.6 Units, 36.7% ROI, Grade 72)
2026 Plays: 10/4 KANSAS CITY, 10/18 JACKSONVILLE, 10/18 LA CHARGERS, 11/1 PITTSBURGH, 11/8 PHILADELPHIA, 11/15 GREEN BAY, 11/15 LA RAMS, 11/29 NY JETS

Pre-bye week system #2:
Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 40-16-2 since 2013, 71.4%, +22.4 Units, 40% ROI, Grade 72)
2026 Plays: UNDER the total in 10/4 KANSAS CITY-Las Vegas, 10/18 JACKSONVILLE-Houston, 10/18 LA CHARGERS-Kansas City, 11/1 PITTSBURGH-Cleveland, 11/8 PHILADELPHIA-NY Giants, 11/15 GREEN BAY-Minnesota, 11/15 LA RAMS-Arizona, 11/29 NY JETS-Miami

Pre-bye week system #3
Play ON favorites of seven points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 80-6-1 SU and 58-27-2 ATS since 2002, 68.2%, +28.3 Units, 33.3% ROI, Grade 70)
Potential 2026 Plays: 10/11 CINCINNATI?, 10/11 DETROIT?, 10/18 BUFFALO?, 10/18 JACKSONVILLE?, 10/25 HOUSTON?, 11/1 PITTSBURGH?, 11/8 CHICAGO?, 11/15 CLEVELAND?, 11/15 LA RAMS?, 11/29 BALTIMORE?, 11/29 INDIANAPOLIS?, 11/29 LAS VEGAS?

Pre-bye week system #4
Play ON home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes in Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 79-41-2 ATS since 2010, 65.8%, +33.9 Units, 28.3% ROI, Grade 68)
2026 Plays: 11/1 PITTSBURGH, 11/8 CHICAGO, 11/8 PHILADELPHIA, 11/15 ATLANTA, 11/15 CLEVELAND, 11/15 GREEN BAY, 11/29 INDIANAPOLIS, 12/6 ARIZONA

Pre-bye week system #5
Play ON home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 39-24-3 ATS since 2015, 61.9%, +12.6 Units, 20% ROI, Grade 64)
Potential 2026 Plays: 10/4 CAROLINA, 10/11 CINCINNATI, 11/15 ATLANTA?, 11/15 CLEVELAND?, 11/15 GREEN BAY?, 12/6 ARIZONA

Pre-bye week system #6
Play ON any road team heading into their bye week on Monday night. (Record: 26-20 SU and 29-15-2 ATS since 1996, 65.9%, +12.5 Units, 28.4% ROI, Grade 65)
2026 Plays: 10/19 WASHINGTON, 12/7 DALLAS

Pre-bye week system #7
Play AGAINST any home team in the +4.5 to -4.5 line range heading into their bye week on Monday night. (Record: 13-7 SU and 16-4 ATS since 1996, 80%, +11.6 Units, 58% ROI, Grade 65)
2026 Potential Plays: NONE – no teams play pre-bye week home games on Monday night this season

Pre-bye week system #8
Play ON any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 33-8-1 SU and 28-13-1 ATS since 2009, 68.3%, +13.7 Units, 33.4% ROI, Grade 67)
2026 Potential Plays: 10/25 NEW ORLEANS?, 10/25 NY GIANTS?, 11/8 DENVER?, 11/15 NEW ENGLAND?, 11/15 SEATTLE?

Pre-bye week system #9
Play AGAINST any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than seven points (Record: 47-8 SU and 37-17-1 ATS since 2008, 68.5%, +18.3 Units, 33.9% ROI, Grade 67)
Potential 2026 Plays: 10/11 MIAMI?, 10/18 LA CHARGERS?, 10/19 WASHINGTON?, 10/25 NY GIANTS?, 11/1 TENNESSEE?, 11/8 TAMPA BAY?, 11/15 ATLANTA?, 12/6 ARIZONA?, 12/7 DALLAS?

Pre-bye week system #10
Play ON any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral-field game (Record: 19-2-1 SU and 16-6 ATS since 2008, 72.7%, +9.4 Units, 42.7% ROI, Grade 67)
Potential 2026 Plays: 10/18 JACKSONVILLE?, 10/25 NEW ORLEANS?, 11/15 NEW ENGLAND?

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye-week games from the regular-season schedule, not playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals Pre-Bye week game: 12/6 vs. PHILADELPHIA
· Arizona is on a 10-3 ATS surge in pre-bye week games
· The Cardinals are on a 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS streak in pre-bye week games at home

Atlanta Falcons Pre-Bye week game: 11/15 vs. KANSAS CITY
· Atlanta has gone 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 pre-bye week games overall
· The Falcons are on a 1-4 ATS skid in pre-bye week home games vs. AFC foes

Baltimore Ravens Pre-Bye week game: 11/29 at HOUSTON
· Baltimore has won its last four pre-bye week road games while going 3-1 ATS
· The Ravens are on a 9-4 Under the total run in pre-bye week games

Buffalo Bills Pre-Bye week game: 10/18 at LAS VEGAS
· Buffalo is on a run of 14-5 Over the total in pre-bye week games
· The Bills are on a 7-3 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes, averaging 28.7 PPG in those games

Carolina Panthers Pre-Bye week game: 10/4 vs. DETROIT
· The Panthers are on a stretch of 10-3 ATS in pre-bye week games, including an upset as double-digit home dogs vs. the Rams in 2025
· Carolina is on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS streak in home pre-bye week games, scoring 30.8 PPG

Chicago Bears Pre-Bye week game: 11/8 vs. TAMPA BAY
· Chicago has won three straight pre-bye week games SU and ATS overall, and is 11-7 ATS in its last 18
· The Bears are on a 10-4 Over the total surge in pre-bye week games since 2012

Cincinnati Bengals Pre-Bye week game: 10/11 at MIAMI
· Cincinnati has gone 7-3 SU and ATS in its last 10 pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes
· The Bengals are on a 5-2 Over the total surge in pre-bye week road games

Cleveland Browns Pre-Bye week game: 11/15 vs. HOUSTON
· Cleveland is on a 3-12 SU and ATS slide in pre-bye week games, including 2-6 SU and ATS in home games
· The Browns are 7-2-1 Under the total in pre-bye week home games since 2012

Dallas Cowboys Pre-Bye week game: MON 12/7 at SEATTLE
· Dallas has lost back-to-back pre-bye week games SU and ATS after five straight ATS wins prior
· The Cowboys are 12-5 SU and ATS in pre-bye week road games since 1993

Denver Broncos Pre-Bye week game: 11/8 at CAROLINA
· Denver is 11-3 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 pre-bye week games overall
· The Broncos are on an 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS surge in pre-bye week road games

Detroit Lions Pre-Bye week game: 10/11 at ARIZONA
· Detroit has won three straight pre-bye week games SU and ATS after losing the prior four
· The Lions have been a pretty bad pre-bye week road team since 1993, 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS, including a 29-0 loss at New England last time out in 2022

Green Bay Packers Pre-Bye week game: 11/15 vs. MINNESOTA
· The Packers have lost three straight pre-bye week games ATS after four straight wins prior
· Green Bay is 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS in pre-bye week home games since 1999

Houston Texans Pre-Bye week game: 10/25 vs. NY GIANTS
· Houston boasts a 16-8 SU and 17-7 ATS record in pre-bye week games since its inception in 2002, including 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS at home
· Houston has gone 8-2-1 Under the total in its last 10 pre-bye week games

Indianapolis Colts Pre-Bye week game: 11/29 vs. NY GIANTS
· Indianapolis is on an 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS run in pre-bye week games overall, but has gone 2-0 SU/0-2 ATS the last two seasons
· The Colts have gone 8-0 Over the total in the last eight pre-bye week games vs. NFC opponents, with those games producing 57.1 PPG

Jacksonville Jaguars Pre-Bye week game: 10/18 vs. HOUSTON (in London)
· The Jaguars are 2-4 SU and ATS in their previous six pre-bye week International games
· Jacksonville is also on a 4-0 Under the total surge in pre-bye week games overseas, scoring 12.8 PPG

Kansas City Chiefs Pre-Bye week game: 10/4 at LAS VEGAS
· Kansas City has gone 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight pre-bye week games
· The Chiefs are on a 7-2-1 Under the total surge in pre-bye week divisional contests, games producing 32.5 PPG

Los Angeles Chargers Pre-Bye week game: 10/18 at KANSAS CITY
· The Chargers are just 2-10 SU and 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 pre-bye week games
· The Chargers are 10-3 Under the total in their last 12 pre-bye week games

Los Angeles Rams Pre-Bye week game: 11/15 at ARIZONA
· The Rams have gone Under the total in 10 of their last 11 pre-bye week games, including eight straight road/neutral contests
· The Rams are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 57 pre-bye week games vs. divisional rivals, including 2-0 SU and ATS vs. Arizona

Las Vegas Raiders Pre-Bye week game: 11/29 at CLEVELAND
· The Raiders are on a four-game SU and 3-game ATS losing streaks in pre-bye week games
· The Raiders are on an 8-2 Over the total run in pre-bye week games

Miami Dolphins Pre-Bye week game: 10/11 vs. CINCINNATI
· Miami is 7-1 Under the total in its last eight pre-bye week games
· Miami has gone 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six pre-bye week games overall, allowing just 11.7 PPG

Minnesota Vikings Pre-Bye week game: 10/11 at NEW ORLEANS
· Minnesota is on a 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS surge in pre-bye week road/neutral games
· The Vikings are on a 14-3 SU and ATS run in pre-bye week games overall

New England Patriots Pre-Bye week game: 11/15 vs. DETROIT (in Munich)
· The Patriots are on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS surge in pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes
· New England has gone just 1-4 SU and ATS (also 4-1 Under) in the last five road/neutral pre-bye week games, scoring just 12 PPG

New Orleans Saints Pre-Bye week game: 10/25 vs. PITTSBURGH (in Paris)
· The Saints have gone 16-6-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2003
· New Orleans is 5-1 Over the total in the last six pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes

New York Giants Pre-Bye week game: 10/25 at HOUSTON
· The Giants are on a 0-5 SU and ATS skid in their last five pre-bye week road/neutral games
· The Giants are 8-2 Under the total in their last 10 pre-bye week games, scoring just 16.9 PPG

New York Jets Pre-Bye week game: 11/29 at MIAMI
· The Jets are on a 9-3 ATS run in pre-bye week road games, including a 39-38 upset win in Cincinnati in 2025
· The Jets are 14-7-1 Over the total in pre-bye week games since 2004

Philadelphia Eagles Pre-Bye week game: 11/8 vs. NY GIANTS
· The Eagles are an impressive 14-4 SU and ATS in pre-bye week games since 2008. Outright winners have won 25 straight Philly pre-bye week games ATS
· Philadelphia is on a 7-0 SU and ATS streak in pre-bye week games vs. divisional foes, outscoring them 26.6-14 on average
· Outright winners have won 25 straight Philly pre-bye week games ATS

Pittsburgh Steelers Pre-Bye week game: 11/1 vs. CLEVELAND
· Pittsburgh is on an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS run overall in pre-bye week games
· The Steelers have won their last four pre-bye week divisional games SU and ATS

San Francisco 49ers Pre-Bye week game: 10/25 at ATLANTA
· San Francisco has gone a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS since 1997 as a pre-week road favorite, outscoring opponents 33.4-14.7
· The 49ers are on a 5-2 Over the total surge in pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes

Seattle Seahawks Pre-Bye week game: 11/15 at LAS VEGAS
· The Seahawks are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS in pre-bye week games overall since 2011
· Seattle is on winning streaks of six games SU and seven games ATS in pre-bye week non-conference games, average scoring margin 27.7-12.2 in the six wins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pre-Bye week game: 11/8 at CHICAGO
· Tampa Bay has won four straight pre-bye week games ATS after a brutal 2-10-1 ATS skid prior
· The Buccaneers have gone Under the total in their last four pre-bye week games, allowing just 12.8 PPG

Tennessee Titans Pre-Bye week game: 11/1 at CINCINNATI
· Titans are 6-2 ATS in the last eight pre-bye week games as underdogs
· Tennessee has gone 4-8 ATS in its last two pre-bye week road/neutral games

Washington Commanders Pre-Bye week game: MON 10/19 at SAN FRANCISCO
· Dating to 1993, Washington is just 11-24-1 ATS in pre-bye week games overall, including 5-14-1 ATS in road/neutral games
· Washington has gone 3-0-1 Under the total in its last four pre-bye week games, scoring just 13 PPG

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