NFL picks for Week 13 from Matt Youmans

December 2, 2023

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NFL best bets and predictions Week 13

When quarterback Brock Purdy went down with an injury, the 49ers went down without a fight in the NFC title game in Philadelphia. But that was then — more than 10 months ago — and things are different now.

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Purdy is healthy and playing at a high level, running back Christian McCaffrey is on a roll and San Francisco has won three in a row going into Sunday’s rematch with the Eagles, who coasted to a 31-7 win en route to the Super Bowl. Things are so much different that the 49ers are 3-point road favorites against the team with the NFL’s best record at 10-1.

First of all, Philadelphia has been playing with fire and its record is deceiving. The Eagles were outgained in each of their past four games (505-378 by the Bills; 336-238 by the Chiefs; 406-292 by the Cowboys; 472-374 by the Commanders) yet won all four by one score.

The Philadelphia defense was on the field for 92 plays last week in a 37-34 overtime victory over Buffalo, and that defense yielded 341 rushing yards in the past two games and ranks near the bottom of the league in passing yards (255.7) and passing touchdowns (23) allowed for the season. The Eagles’ offensive leader, quarterback Jalen Hurts, has already committed 14 turnovers after turning it over eight times all of last season.

While the Eagles are by no means a mediocre team, they have been lucky late in games, and the 49ers are unlikely to let them off the hook.

Purdy has completed 70.2% of his passes this season, with seven touchdowns and one interception in the past three games. McCaffrey has topped 100 rushing yards in four games. If that’s not enough for a thinning Philadelphia defense to worry about, the 49ers also attack all areas of the field with wideouts Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle.

And here’s something for Hurts to worry about: San Francisco ranks No. 1 in the NFL in scoring defense (15.5 ppg).

The best numbers are long gone and laying a field goal is no bargain, but the 49ers (-2.5) were my first bet this week and I’m sticking with that side.

Pick: 49ers -3

My five sides went 3-1-1 last week, putting the season record in this column at 29-27-4. Four home ‘dogs for Week 13 (home team in CAPS):

PATRIOTS (+5.5) over Chargers

Bailey Zappe will make his first start of the season at quarterback, and the key for Zappe will be avoiding turnovers and watching Patriots running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott do most of the groundwork against a weak LA defense. It’s not easy to bet New England, which is 1-7 ATS in its past eight games, but it’s tougher to lay points on the road with a poorly-coached Chargers team that is 4-7 and out of the playoff picture.

SAINTS (+4) over Lions

It takes courage to bet ugly ‘dogs, and here’s another one. New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr, who could be without his top three receivers, will lean on running back Alvin Kamara to spark an offense that scored 15 points on five field goals a week ago. A Detroit defense in decline could help Carr get back on track. With quarterback Jared Goff slumping, the Lions look like shaky road favorites.

TITANS (+1) over Colts

The absence of running back Jonathan Taylor (thumb injury) might not be a big deal due to the effectiveness of backup Zack Moss, but Indianapolis’ weak run defense will be a problem. Tennessee, which is 4-1 straight up and ATS at home, will get a big effort from running back Derrick Henry and ride him to a narrow win.

PACKERS (+6) over Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes has said he’s fired up for his first start at Lambeau Field, but his receivers have let him down, and the Chiefs are in a tough spot playing back-to-back road games. Green Bay is suddenly playing with more confidence on both sides of the ball after winning three of four, including an upset of Detroit on Thanksgiving. The Packers are on the rise, but there is obviously a huge class difference in these quarterbacks, so Mahomes will outduel Jordan Love when it counts as Kansas City escapes by a field goal.

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