NFL Picks
The following are the NFL picks from the 2025 VSiN NFL Betting Guide. These include season win totals, player props, and even Week 1 lines.
Matt Youmans
Rams Over 9.5 wins (-130) and to win NFC (11/1)
On a snowy January day in Philadelphia, Matthew Stafford had a shot to stop the Eagles’ run to the Super Bowl. The Rams advanced to the Philadelphia 21-yard line with 1:25 to go, but the drive died after Stafford was sacked on third down and fired a fourth-down incompletion in a 28-22 loss. Considering the Eagles crushed the Commanders and Chiefs in their next two games, the Rams made a statement about being a team on the rise. Stafford, 37, still has what it takes to win another Super Bowl and should be more productive as a passer this season with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua forming a dynamic receiver duo. Kyren Williams returns after rushing for 1,299 yards and 14 touchdowns. The defensive front seven, featuring linebackers Jared Verse, Byron Young and Omar Speights, and linemen Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner, is stronger with the addition of run-stuffing nose tackle Poona Ford via free agency. In coach Sean McVay’s eight years, the Rams own four NFC West titles and six playoff appearances. Last season, after starting 1-4, the young Rams grew up and rallied to finish 10-7. Repeating as the division winner won’t be easy, mostly because the 49ers face a softer schedule, but the Rams have the coaching and talent on both sides of the ball to win it all.
Broncos Over 9.5 wins (+110) and to win AFC West (+350)
After evaluating the preseason games last August, it became apparent to me that almost everyone was underestimating Denver’s depth and talent, including rookie quarterback Bo Nix, and there was a sharp play to be made with Over 5.5 wins. After starting 0-2, Sean Payton coached the Broncos to a 10-7 finish. The time to buy low is history, and the schedule is much more difficult, but I remain dedicated to backing a Denver team that returns 20 starters and made key additions to a roster that suddenly ranks among the strongest in the NFL on both sides of the ball. A sophomore slump for Nix is a possibility, but he’s surrounded with more talent and Payton’s offense should improve after ranking 10th in scoring at 25 PPG. The Denver defense, which led the league in sacks (63) and ranked third in scoring (18.3 PPG), is the real deal. The Broncos, who were a blocked field goal away from sweeping the Chiefs last year, have the best defense and deepest roster in the NFL’s toughest division.
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Dave Ross
Cowboys Over 7.5 wins (-130) and to win NFC East (8/1)
Yes, call me a homer all you want but I’ve already played the Cowboys. Three years in a row, this team under “Big Mike” won 12 games and I cashed all of those tickets. Last year was a no play for me because the books finally adjusted. And once Dak Prescott went down, the season was over.
Now, with Big Mike gone, the books are underselling this team big-time. If Prescott stays healthy, I think they’re also a good play to win the division. (Yes, that’s in pocket, too.)
Why? If Brian Schottenheimer is half as good as his dad was, this is an eight-win team at minimum.
I loved the subtle offseason moves. Of course, everyone is talking about George Pickens at wide receiver, but I’m looking at Tyler Booker coming in and starting right away on the younger, revamped offensive line. If there’s one thing this team has traditionally done well, it’s draft offensive lineman — and I think that’s all Prescott really needs. A run game will help, too. I believe the Cowboys addressed all of it in free agency and the draft.
The defense will be as good as Micah Parsons can be, and he can be the ultimate game wrecker when he’s not busy podcasting.
Lions to win NFC (+550) and Super Bowl (11/1)
Everyone is selling Detroit and I get it. Both coordinators are gone, and the center unexpectedly retired. Now the whispers of “Can Dan Campbell really coach?” are starting again.
Yes, he can.
The best thing he’s done? Establish a culture of winning. That is sometimes the hardest thing to do in football. He’s done it and then some. And they still have elite offensive talent. And don’t look now, but they’re going to get back around 4-5 defensive studs that were on IR at the end of the year.
This team will be loaded for Bear, Packer and Viking.
Bengals to win AFC (10/1) and Super Bowl (20/1)
The division is brutal. The conference is brutal. But I do think the Bengals are flying below the radar. Look, they may have to win every game 38-35, but they may be good enough to do so. Just kidding. Of course, they’ve got to be better defensively, but that’s where Al Golden comes in. Sure, this isn’t Notre Dame, but his track record is pretty damn good.
Zac Taylor has the offense humming. Ironically, he may be on the hotseat. This is my “Maverick” selection. They are either going to win the battle or crash and burn. I’m banking on the former rather than the latter
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Dave Tuley
Lions to win NFC North (+135), Over 11.5 wins (+125) and to win Super Bowl (+1325)
I know these sound chalky for me, but I see value with the Lions at plus-money to win the NFC North and Over 11.5 season wins, and as of the deadline for this VSiN NFL Betting Guide, they were still being offered as high as +1325 to win the Super Bowl at Circa Sports (for the sake of comparison, 11-1 at William Hill, 10-1 at DraftKings and 8-1 at Westgate). There were definitely times last season when the Lions were the best team in the NFL and went 15-2. We don’t expect 15 wins again, but going Over 11.5 just needs a dozen wins so even a regression of three victories gets us there. The Lions are the two-time defending division champs, so the only reason they’re not odds-on favorites is because the division did so well overall last year, but I’ll still take the plus-money there, too.
Texans to win AFC South (+105) Over 9.5 wins (+110) and to win Super Bowl (34/1)
I was high on the Texans last year and they were among the top AFC teams (though a cut below the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens) all season, but didn’t really challenge for the AFC’s top seed and first-round bye. They won the AFC South and routed the Chargers 32-12 in the wild-card round before losing 23-14 to the eventual AFC champion Chiefs. It’ll be just as tough of a fight this year, but there were many times in my horse handicapping career where I would jump on a horse at nice odds. If it lost, I wouldn’t throw out my opinion and instead bet them again in their next out, often at better odds (like I did last year where I had Dornoch in the Kentucky Derby but stuck with him in the Belmont, where he won at 17-1). It’s better to be on a horse/team early as opposed to later when everyone is on the bandwagon and kills the price. So, I can’t pass up 30-1 or better on the Texans this season in case it was just a matter of being on them too early. And just like last year, when I still made money on them to win the AFC South and go Over their season win total, I like both those bets again at plus-money as I don’t see the Jaguars or Colts closing the gap in the division.
Broncos to make playoffs (-105) and possibly win AFC West (+350)
The Broncos improved from 8-9 in 2003 to 10-7 last year and made the playoffs before losing to the Bills in the wild-card round. Rookie Bo Nix replaced Russell Wilson as the starting QB and the team was competitive all season. They finished third in the AFC West but still have upside and I believe they should be favored to make the playoffs again. I’m tempted to grab +350 on the Broncos to win the division, but not sure that’s as good of betting value as they would have to leapfrog not only the Chiefs but also the Chargers. But I wouldn’t talk anyone out of it.
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Jensen Lewis
49ers to win NFC (10/1) and Super Bowl (20/1)
The 49ers head into the 2025 season with cautious optimism, fueled by a favorable schedule and the return of key contributors — but shadowed by lingering injury concerns. With an opponent win percentage of just .415 based on 2024 results — the lowest in the league — the path to a bounce-back season is there for the taking.
Offensively, San Francisco remains dangerous. Quarterback Brock Purdy anchors a group that includes a hopefully healthy Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and a revamped receiving corps led by Brandon Aiyuk (returning from ACL surgery), Jauan Jennings, and rookie Ricky Pearsall. If Aiyuk regains form, the passing attack could be among the league’s best.
On defense, the return of Robert Saleh’s scheme and a younger, retooled line around Nick Bosa may help fix last year’s struggles against the run. Six primetime games and a favorable late-season stretch — five of their final eight games are at home against teams that had losing records in 2024 — give the 49ers a chance to build momentum.
Injuries were the story of 2024. McCaffrey appeared in just four games and Aiyuk was lost after Week 7. On defense, the departures of Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw leave depth concerns, while safety Malik Mustapha’s ACL recovery likely rules him out for Week 1, putting early pressure on rookies to contribute. Special teams also remain a question mark and must improve under new coordinator Brant Boyer.
If healthy, Purdy could flirt with 4,500 passing yards and McCaffrey is a prime Comeback Player of the Year candidate. Rookies like cornerback Mykel Williams and linebacker Alfred Collins will need to make immediate impacts. Saleh’s return is key to shaping a young defense with upside.
Health is the variable that will define this team. If the 49ers stay out of the medical tent, a 12-win season and NFC West title are well within reach. If injuries return, so could the struggles. Still, with talent on both sides of the ball and an easy schedule, a playoff return feels not just possible, but probable — with dark horse potential if everything clicks.
Chargers to make playoffs (-140), win AFC (12/1) and win Super Bowl (25/1)
Expectations are high for the Chargers entering 2025, with Jim Harbaugh’s strong first season setting the tone for a team aiming to contend. A tough schedule — the 11th hardest in the league (.522 opponent win rate) — opens with a high-profile international showdown against the Chiefs in São Paulo, Brazil.
The defense remains the foundation, finishing first in points allowed (301) last season. Anchored by Derwin James and Khalil Mack, the unit now adds promising rookies Myles Cole (edge, Texas Tech) and Payton Wilson (linebacker, NC State). On offense, Justin Herbert leads with his elite decision-making — when protected — and second-year sensation Ladd McConkey, coming off an 82-catch, 1,149-yard rookie season, adds explosiveness to the passing game.
The additions of Najee Harris and Mekhi Becton aim to revitalize the run game, especially under OC Greg Roman’s physical, run-heavy scheme. A late-November bye offers a well-timed reset for the playoff push.
Still, concerns linger. The offensive line’s interior remains shaky (20th in run block win rate), which could again expose Herbert, who was sacked four times in last year’s playoff loss. The receiver room lacks depth beyond McConkey, with Mike Williams still inconsistent and Josh Palmer now gone. The team will also travel a league-high 37,086 miles, with difficult back-to-back matchups late in the year (Eagles, Chiefs in Weeks 14–15) challenging their durability.
Losing Joey Bosa and cornerback Kristian Fulton (signed with Chiefs) creates pressure on the edge and in the secondary, where Donte Jackson and rookie contributors must step up to maintain last season’s elite performance.
If Herbert stays healthy and the run game clicks, he could top 4,500 passing yards and the Chargers should push for 10–12 wins. A wild-card berth — or even an AFC West title — is within reach, provided they survive the travel grind and capitalize on key home primetime games.
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Steve Makinen
Falcons Over 7.5 wins (-140)
Last year the Falcons had a bold strategy of signing veteran QB Kirk Cousins and then opting for a QB (Michael Penix) in the first round of the draft. The two moves were supposed to go hand-in-hand, with Cousins not only keeping the seat warm and the team in contention, but also helping to get Penix ready for the challenges of the NFL. When Cousins struggled beyond expectation, the plan was accelerated, with Penix eventually taking over late in the season. He looked every bit the part of a potential future star, leading the team to a near playoff-clinching win at Washington in Week 17. Atlanta eventually settled in at 8-9 after the final two losses in overtime, but Penix had proven himself by guiding the offense to 32 PPG in his three starts. With the left-hander now locked in as the answer at the game’s most crucial position, he is surrounded by a plethora of young and talented stars at the skill positions, namely Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. His team also falls into a unique season-to-season system showing that since 2009, there have been 43 teams that had negative turnover differentials and won less than six games against the spread. All but seven of these teams improved their outright winning percentage as well, by an average of about 20%, and 13 of them qualified for the playoffs. The NFC South has a lot of question marks in my opinion, and Atlanta looks ready to ascend.
Jaguars Over 7.5 wins (-125)
New head coach Liam Coen has a big job to do, as after leading the Jaguars to back-to-back 9-8 seasons that included a playoff win, things unraveled last season for predecessor Doug Pederson, who was consequently fired. What makes this situation better than a lot of others however, is that Jacksonville was 10-7 ATS, a sign that they were playing competitively. On another good note, this franchise has had a tendency for bouncing back quickly after rough seasons recently, as they went from 3-14 to 9-8 from ’21 to ’22, and from 3-13 to 10-6 from ’16 to ’17. It can be done. The biggest challenge for Coen, having last worked with QB Matt Stafford as OC for the Rams, will be to get QB Trevor Lawrence back up to speed after an injury-riddled ’24 campaign. His numbers weren’t bad in 10 games, but if Coen can get anything resembling the Rams’ passing attack going, the Jaguars have the weapons outside to produce a lot offensively. Getting back to the nice point spread mark last year, this franchise will qualify for a very strong bounce back system in ’25: Since ’93, 46 teams have lost 8+ games in “close loss” format, that being one possession or less (8 pts). Of those, 39 improved the next season, with a combined average IMPROVEMENT of a hefty 3.97 wins per season. In addition, there have been 18 teams since 2009 that had a negative or even turnover differential yet still managed to win double-digit games against the spread. Eleven of those teams reached the postseason the next year. This is a team that has assembled some nice talent in a division ripe for the picking. Wipe the slate completely clean for Jacksonville in 2025.
Raiders Over 6.5 wins (-145)
How much difference does stability at head coach and quarterback mean to a NFL franchise? In my opinion, it means more than you can imagine, and what happens in Las Vegas this year for the Raiders will stand as evidence of it. After juggling coaches and QBs over the last few seasons, this franchise finally gets some solid foundation in two of the most critical areas of team building as they bring in HC Pete Carroll and QB Geno Smith, who worked together in Seattle as recently as two years ago. Just simply looking at the similar veteran QB signings of late, the combined success rate of the last 32 qualifying veteran QB players was 230-221-1 SU (51%) & 217-221-14 ATS (49.5%). That’s a record above .500 with nothing else considered. Last season, the Raiders lost eight games by double-digit margins, but none by 20+. Those are actually good signs of teams ready to bounce back. Over the L31 seasons, there have been 78 teams that have lost at least eight games in a season by double-digit margins. Of those, 59 IMPROVED the next season, and by an average of 3.68 wins per year. Regarding turnover issues last year, Smith should help that improve, and since 2020, there have been 15 teams that endured a turnover differential of -0.6 per game or worse and did not make the playoffs. All but two of those teams improved the next season. The average regular season win improvement was 3.8 wins per season for the other 10 teams. In the draft this past April, Las Vegas also added explosive RB Ashton Jeanty out of Boise State. Between him and Smith, this offense should be MUCH improved. This is a pretty low win total for a team that now has some juice.
Saints Under 6.5 wins (-190)
I had the pleasure of attending a late season Monday night game at Lambeau Field this past season when the Packers clobbered an overmatched Saints team 34-0. It was almost as if New Orleans wasn’t in the same league. They started QB Spencer Rattler that game and the offense was abysmal. It seems as though Rattler could be in line to be the full-time starter in ’25 after Derek Carr’s sudden offseason retirement, although supposedly rookie second-round draftee Tyler Shough has shown some promise. Whoever it winds up being, this looks like it’s going to be a big job for new head coach Kellen Moore, and a big chance for a guy who has led some of the more prolific offenses in the league over the last seven years as a QB’s coach and coordinator, including a year ago for the Super Bowl champion Eagles. The Saints come off a season in which they failed to score 20 PPG for just the second time since 2005. They also allowed their most points per game in a season since 2016. There was also talk in the offseason of trading some of the franchise’s biggest stars in an effort to accelerate the rebuild, including WR Chris Olave and an aging RB Alvin Kamara. After what I saw under the lights in Green Bay, combined with what was a challenging offseason, to me, the Saints have the feel of a team that might be heading for the first draft pick next April.
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Scott Seidenberg
Bills AFC #1 Seed (+195) and Most Wins (+350)
A lot is set up nicely for the Bills. The schedule of opponents is relatively easy compared to the rest of the league and the spacing of the games as well as travel could not have broken down any better. Buffalo travels the least amount of miles of any team this coming season and they will play just one game outside the Eastern time zone all year when they travel to Houston in Week 12. Sure, they begin the year with the Ravens and have to play four primetime games in the first six weeks, but their short-week game on TNF comes after playing the Jets, and it’s also at home which gives them less of a disadvantage. Speaking of being home, the toughest games for Buffalo will all be in Orchard Park with the Ravens in Week 1, Chiefs in Week 9, Bengals in Week 14 and Eagles in Week 17. The Bills should have no problem navigating this cake of a schedule and finish with the #1 seed in the AFC and the most wins in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey Comeback Player of the Year (+350)
Okay first off, let’s start with a reality check. While it’s cute to look at players who underperformed last year as potential winners of this award, the league specifically made sure the voting goes to only those who missed time for injuries, not performance. After Joe Flacco won the award a few years ago, the league released a statement saying, “The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season. The decision to provide this guidance was made last December but could not be implemented for the 2023 awards because the season was almost completed.”
Now that that’s out of the way, we look at players who missed significant time due to injury, and the first and most obvious name is Christian McCaffrey. Frankly, I don’t get how he is not the overwhelming favorite to win this. C-Mac played in just 4 games last year, and while you want to be hesitant with a guy coming off injuries, perhaps the time off helps a player who is used as much as he is in this offense. McCaffrey is a perennial Offensive Player of the Year and MVP candidate, and in his limited time in the 49er offense, has put up over 2400 rushing yards, 1100 receiving yards, and scored 31 touchdowns in 31 games played. The 49ers also must feel confident about McCaffrey’s ability to come back from injury, as they traded away backup RB Jordan Mason and did not draft a RB early in the draft. It’s easy to see C-Mac have his normal role, if not a bigger one in this 49er offense now without Deebo Samuel. McCaffrey should bounce back to All-Pro form and be a clear winner of this award.
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Pauly Howard
Lions Under 10.5 wins (-120)
Both coordinators are gone and the genius Ben Johnson takes his creativity and imagination to Chicago. The Lions will play 11 of their 17 games against teams coming off playoff berths, with seven on the road. This is the most difficult schedule I have seen. They play three first-place teams from last season, and going into the Sunday slate on the divisional round six teams were left. The Lions play five of them on the road. Dan Campbell is Coach of the Year if they win 11 games.
49ers Over 10.5 wins (+115)
The Niners are 9-3 in their last 12 meetings with the Rams and face an easy schedule this year. Injuries have killed this team in the last 3-4 years, so I am betting on health being the biggest key. They will be better than Arizona and Seattle and cannot have a repeat of the special teams disaster last year. San Fran lost six games by one score and will bounce back with a close of 6-2 or 7-1 at the end of the season. Brock Purdy got paid and should have a big year like two years ago when he was the favorite to win MVP before a Christmas Day meltdown against Baltimore.
Rams to win Super Bowl (22/1)
The Rams gave the Eagles all they could handle in a blizzard and had first-and-goal for the win.
They have a good coach, organization and talent, and could win the division — with a bye perhaps. This price is way too high. They swept the 49ers last year and McVay owns Arizona and Seattle also. Grabbing Davante Adams will be huge and take pressure off Matt Stafford and Puka Nacua.
Saints to finish with worst record (+500)
When someone who covers the team says don’t bet a dime on the Saints, you have to listen. Mike Detillier from WWL knows his stuff and thinks this team will struggle — along with rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. With a new coach and the worst team in the division, while also considering Cleveland and Tennessee should be better, I will go with New Orleans to have the worst record/fewest wins.
AFC South Exactas:
Houston – Jacksonville – Indianapolis – Tennessee (+900)
Houston – Indianapolis – Jacksonville – Tennessee (12/1)
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Kelley Bydlon
Cowboys Over 392.5 Points Scored
The Cowboys are a team I’m very interested in this season. While I don’t think they are a true contender in the NFC, or even their own division, I do think they are being slept on a bit by bettors (definitely not by ESPN). While there are concerns on the defensive side of the ball and the offensive line, a healthy Dak Prescott will be back, and he’s now surrounded with an impressive group of weapons in CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson. While I’m still considering an Over play on their win total, the route I’ve decided to go early is betting Over their team total points scored for the season at over 392.5. Yes, they fell below this last year, but Prescott only played eight games, and this team had easily cleared that mark in the three seasons prior. Considering they are only favored in six games, as of now, and I do have concerns with their defense, there is a good chance this offense is playing some catch-up late in games which could lead to more points.
Giants Under 5.5 wins (-120)
This was the first bet I made this offseason. Juice has moved a tad, but I still think it’s a play. They have the toughest schedule in the league and I think they get absolutely beat up in the division. I have no idea what’s going to happen at the quarterback position, but I don’t expect any of the three of them to find too much success with this roster. However, Jameis Winston would at least make things fun…just had to throw that in.
Bills Most Regular Season Wins (+450)
Yeah, they’re the favorite in this market, but if you can get 4-1 or better on the Bills to have most regular season wins, it’s a must play for me. You’d think the defense can only improve after last season, they have an MVP at quarterback who has played 16+ games every season since he became a full-time starter (he doesn’t get hurt), they have the fifth-easiest strength of schedule (based off win totals) entering the season, and I am down compared to the market on almost every other team in their division.
Now, if you have concerns about that Week 1 matchup against Baltimore, that’s fair. You can always jump in at a better price after that game if you think they lose and still want a piece. But part of this bet for me is them winning that Week 1 game.
Seahawks To Finish Fourth in NFC West (+120)
I THINK this is the only team future bet I’ll end up on in the NFC West. I’ve been considering some bullish plays on the Rams, and do lean to them winning the division, but I do think it will likely be tight with the 49ers. One of the teams I thought people were low on last year was Arizona. Now, the expectations have ticked up this offseason, but I think their win total is about right, and if I like all three of the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals, the Seahawks are an easy fade look for me in the division. I don’t necessarily think they are terrible, but they are the odd man out. I have enough questions and concerns about the coaching staff and quarterback position to put them behind the others.
*Week 1: Cardinals -4.5 (-115)
This is still up at FanDuel/Boyd. Most shops have gone to 6 on this game against the Saints. I expect the Saints to be the worst team in the NFL this season, and the first week of the year with a rookie QB likely starting probably won’t be their high point. On the flip side, I am high on the Cardinals this season. I rarely make Week 1 bets this early, but anything under 6 is a player here for me.
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Greg Peterson
Week 1: Cowboys +7
Many people are bearish on the hire of Brian Schottenheimer because he isn’t a sexy name for the Cowboys, but he might be just what the team needs to be at their best on offense. The Eagles will have a lot of pressure on them after winning the Super Bowl and the Cowboys may not be deep, but they have a bunch of top end talent and until injuries pile up, can provide some unexpected value with that talent.
Steelers Under 8.5 wins (-110)
The Steelers have the circus coming into town with Aaron Rodgers, who did not sign with the team until early June. A north of 40-year-old quarterback needing to learn a new system with not a lot of chemistry with his teammates, two years after a catastrophic injury, isn’t good to start with. While Mike Tomlin is an amazing coach and dealt with the headache of Antonio Brown very well, this will be played out in the media much more. This is also a brutal division with a Ravens team that is one of the best in the league, and the Bengals have potential to be dangerous once again. Rodgers will end Tomlin’s streak of a .500 record or better with his giant ego and not being who he once was at his advanced age.
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Will Hill
Steelers Round Elimination Wild Card +330 (DK)
Steeler’ fans are all too familiar with early exits under Mike Tomlin, as they have been ‘one and done’ four of the last five seasons. For all of the praise Tomlin gets for never having a losing year, the 2016 season is the last time his team won a playoff game. With Aaron Rodgers on board, I believe the Steelers still have the defense and the culture to once again possibly eke out 9 or 10 wins and make the playoffs, but not enough upside to win the AFC North, meaning they’d be on the road in the Wild Card Round. If that’s how the season plays out, not only will they be on the road, but they will likely run into one of the many elite quarterbacks the AFC has to offer. Their last three playoff losses have come at the hands of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes. I expect a similar fate this season for the over-celebrated Steelers.
Giants Under 5.5 wins
I get the sense this will be a popular play, and that always scares me, but not enough to keep me off of it. The Cinderella run of 2022 seems like a distant memory now, as Brian Daboll made the playoffs and won a playoff game in his first Giants’ season, but in the two years since has come closer to picking first in the draft than returning to the postseason. This is an obvious pick with one quick look at the schedule. Road games vs. the Commanders and Cowboys, then games vs. the Chiefs and Chargers are just the start of what is a grueling schedule that has only a road game in New Orleans, barring upsets, as a spot to feel good about capturing a win. The aforementioned Daboll is intense, and likely on the hot seat. That combined with a brutal schedule is the recipe for another losing season for “Big Blue”, as a coaching change and another poor record seem to be ahead.
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Tyler Shoemaker
Eagles Under 11.5 wins (-110)
Obviously, the last time we saw Jalen Hurts and Co. they looked like the Monstars vs. the Tune Squad, only that Tune Squad was the NFL dynasty Kansas City Chiefs; however, I often talk about the championship fatigue that comes from winning, and despite some outliers, it’s very hard to come back the following season as hungry and focused to stay at the top of the mountain as you were to get to the top of the mountain. This is probably the most talented team in the league, but I think they’re more in a “fat and happy” spot this season than a hungry one, and they know coasting to a 10-7 season still gets them in the playoffs (probably) and then they can try to flip the switch into playoff mode. Consider this a psychological and “load management” bet for a supremely talented team coming off a Super Bowl win. I don’t have my TSI NFL numbers done yet, but ESPN’s FPI only projects 10.1 wins and TeamRankings.com projects 10.8, so I like this bet a lot for this year.
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Matt Brown
Joe Burrow to win Offensive Player of the Year (50/1)
I know the Offensive Player of the Year Award has become the de facto ‘award for best non quarterback’, but hear me out. Joe Burrow has the best 1-2 punch of receivers in the NFL. He also is likely going to be throwing the ball a ton as the team continues to either keep pace or rally from a deficit, given the lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball. I think the upside here is Burrow eclipsing his league-leading 4,918 passing yards from last season…BUT squeaking into the playoffs. This might be just the formula needed to win the OPOY. The team isn’t good enough for MVP, but the consolation prize is OPOY. I like the number and the route to getting there.
Joe Mixon Under 10.5 Rush TDs
Only 10 running backs reached 11 rushing TDs last season (both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts did as well), so right off the bat, this is going against Mixon. And while he did get there last season in just 14 games (11 rush TDs on the dot), he did so without much competition in the backfield. Enter Nick Chubb, the competition. He’s bound to steal at least 100 carries and probably a handful of rushing TDs. Further, Mixon will be 29 when the Texans’ first snap is taken this September. And while Derrick Henry continues to defy Father Time, most running backs do not. Mixon would need another healthy season, while still maintaining the goal line back role full-time to hit this number.
49ers Under 10.5 wins
You know how many teams won 11 games last year? NINE. One of which (the Chargers) got there in Week 18 by beating a four-win, Aidan O’Connell-led Raiders team with less than anything to play for. There are a lot of assumptions being made about the 49ers. The assumption that a 29-year-old Christian McCaffrey, fresh off his latest major injury, is going to be the same player he was before. The assumption that Brandon Aiyuk can handle the WR1 role coming off his own major ACL and MCL injury, and without Deebo Samuel around to boot. The assumption that a defense that has a fraction of the elite personnel it once had, is going to magically right itself because Robert Saleh is back… despite them likely having to start three rookies and two objectively bad players in Pinnock and Elliott. And how about the biggest assumption of them all…that Brock Purdy is anything better than league average? He was tied for 15th this past season in PFF’s passing grade, bettered by the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, and Baker Mayfield. The cake schedule could be the only thing that saves them. That said, the Rams are going to be better. The Cardinals are going to be better. They travel to Tampa and Houston. Maybe Michael Penix is good. Perhaps Bryce Young builds on his end-of-season momentum. And I think everyone likes the Bears this year. I see six no-doubt wins and too much hype for a team we know less about than we think. Play the Rams to win the division while you’re at it.
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Wes Reynolds
Lions Under 10.5 wins (-110)
The Lions 15-2 season came to a surprisingly abrupt end losing at home in the Divisional Round last season to the Washington Commanders. Change is always inevitable and now the Lions are going through it on both sides of the ball.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson had been with Jared Goff since he was acquired in 2021, as had passing game coordinator Tanner Engstrand. Johnson is now the head coach of the Chicago Bears and Engstrand was brought in as offensive coordinator for the New York Jets by its new head coach Aaron Glenn, who also leaves Detroit where he served as defensive coordinator.
John Morton takes over as offensive coordinator in a role where he lasted one season with the Jets in the 2017 season. Kelvin Sheppard is promoted from linebackers coach for his first crack as defensive coordinator. On paper, this duo is clearly a drop-off from their predecessors.
The Lions offensive line, one of the league’s best last season, also undergoes a bit of a makeover as its longtime anchor Frank Ragnow retired and Kevin Zeitler signed with Tennessee. With Graham Glasgow likely moving to the right side, the Lions could potentially start rookies at both center (second-rounder Tate Ratledge) and left guard (fifth-rounder Miles Frazier).
This is also a substantially tougher schedule with trips to Baltimore, Kansas City, Washington, and Philadelphia. Last season, the Lions only played four outdoor games. This season, they are scheduled to play seven.
With the coordinator changes, more difficult schedule, potential regression in close games (7-2 last season), and a division that should be more competitive in 2025, the Lions look to take a step back this season.
Jaguars to win AFC South (+325)
Going into last season, Baker Mayfield was off his career year and then his coordinator Dave Canales left for Carolina. Many, including me, anticipated that regression was coming, but Liam Coen proved us wrong. Under Coen, Mayfield exceeded his career-highs in completions, attempts, passing yards, completion percentage, QBR, yards/attempt, and rushing yards.
Trevor Lawrence is hoping for the same fate as Mayfield under Coen’s tutelage as the 39-year-old begins his first season as Jaguars head coach. He also brings in 29-year-old first-year coordinator Grant Udinski, who was on the Minnesota staff for Sam Darnold’s career season last year.
Lawrence certainly looks to have a better offensive staff to work with and what should be an improved offensive line with the additions of Patrick Mekari (Baltimore) and Robert Hainsey (Tampa Bay). Brian Thomas Jr. was the leading rookie receiver in the league last season and now he has other playmakers around him including Dyami Brown (Washington) and No. 2 overall pick and Heisman winner Travis Hunter.
The defense is not much to write home about, but does have a good tandem of edge rushers — Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen — that need to lead a pass rush to better numbers (34, fifth worst in 2024). However, the Titans are still rebuilding, and the Colts have questions throughout the organization. The Texans as two-time reigning division winners are the obvious favorite, but Jacksonville should have the most firepower of any offense in the AFC South.
Eagles Under 11.5 wins (-110)
The Philadelphia Eagles are the reigning Super Bowl Champions, but as always there is a price to pay for being the hunted in the following season. That price typically entails other teams paying higher dollars for your players. Well, this year for the Eagles, it is teams paying for its coaches, as the overwhelming majority of the offensive staff follows Kellen Moore to New Orleans.
Two years ago, everything fell apart especially late in the season for the Eagles and they were one-and-done in the playoffs. Last year, everything went right and they won the Super Bowl. They were one of the healthiest teams in the league all season, won almost all the close games (8-1 in one score games), and had a permissible schedule with only six games against playoff teams.
This year, they play 11 games versus playoff teams from last year. The Eagles also do not have a stretch of consecutive home games all season while having two back-to-back road spots including at Washington (December 20) and at Buffalo (December 28) before closing at home with Washington. That is a difficult end to a very tough schedule.
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Nick Whalen
Texans to win AFC South (+115)
While the Texans did win a playoff game, last season felt like an overall disappointment after CJ Stroud’s breakout rookie year. Injuries and inconsistency on offense were among the culprits, but I like how the Texans operated this offseason, aggressively pursuing pass-catchers in Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, while mixing in some veteran additions on defense. The offensive line remains a possible concern, but I view last season as somewhat of a baseline for Houston, which is still the highest-floor — and probably highest-ceiling — team in the AFC South. Solving their offensive line issues will be paramount, however.
In terms of winning the division, the Jaguars may be the biggest threat, on paper, but there are a lot of “what if” statements involved in projecting Jacksonville after a disastrous 4-13 season. Meanwhile, the Titans are starting a rookie quarterback and the Colts are wandering in the wilderness with Daniel Jones. Give me Houston at plus money to win its third straight AFC South crown.
Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year (16/1)
In recent years, this has essentially become the non-quarterback MVP award, with three running backs and three receivers taking it home over the last six seasons. Saquon Barkley (+650) is the favorite to repeat — something that no one has done since Marshall Faulk at the turn of the century. Certainly, we know what players like Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase and Derrick Henry are capable of.
But the argument in favor of Robinson is that his best, peak season is still yet to come. After a relatively slow start, Robinson turned it on over the second half of the season, ripping off 824 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns over Atlanta’s final eight games. More importantly, the Falcons seemed to realize that the offense should run through Robinson, who notched north of 24 touches per game in that span, compared to 19 per game over the first half
I like Robinson’s chances to pick up where he left off and firmly establish himself as perhaps the most dynamic back in the league. He may not have 2,000-yard upside, but his ability as a pass-catcher could lead to a monster yards-from-scrimmage season.
Browns Under 5.5 wins (-140)
The Browns were a three-win operation a year ago, and it’s difficult to find much reason for optimism in 2025. Quarterback remains an obvious weakness, and Cleveland did very little outside of the draft to upgrade talent around the roster. Both Mason Graham and Quinshon Judkins are intriguing future pieces, but they don’t move the needle for me when it comes to this season’s outlook. Schedule-wise, the Browns don’t catch many breaks. On paper, they’ll face one of the NFL’s most-difficult schedules, including out-of-division matchups against Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, San Francisco and Buffalo. They do get the Dolphins, Jets, Raiders and Titans — all winnable games — but they’ll need to catch some serious breaks and pull off a few unlikely upsets in the AFC North to have any shot at reaching six wins.
Vikings to Miss Playoffs (-140)
I toyed with the idea of Minnesota U8.5 wins at a better price (+120) but settled on this angle instead. Minnesota has essentially yo-yo’d between overachieving and underachieving in recent years, and last season was clearly an example of the former. Minnesota was 9-1 in one-score games and led the NFL in turnovers forced with 33 – 11 more than their 2023 total. The Vikings blew through their preseason win total en route to 14 wins, though the underlying numbers say they were closer to an 11-win outfit.
Either way, with Sam Darnold moving on after a dream season, the Vikings once again start anew at quarterback with J.J. McCarthy, who is yet to take an NFL regular-season snap. There’s some reason to believe McCarthy could hit the ground running, given his head coach and the pieces around him, but he’s essentially a rookie, and most inexperienced quarterbacks tend to struggle early on.
The Vikings also have one of the league’s toughest projected schedules, including six difficult division games, as well as dates with the Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, Eagles, Ravens, Commanders, Cowboys and Falcons. The Browns and Giants are the only true bottom-feeders on the schedule, and both of those games are on the road.
If McCarthy can give the Vikings even league-average quarterback play, a postseason berth could again be within reach. But the NFC will once again be loaded with talented teams, so the bar to clear could again be 10 or 11 wins. When push comes to shove, I see the Vikings being left out of the playoff field. Minnesota, for what it’s worth, has not made the postseason in back-to-back years since 2008 and 2009, when Brett Favre was slinging the rock to Sidney Rice.
Week 1: Cardinals -4.5 at Saints
First off, I’m not overly high on this Cardinals team, but I am very low on the Saints, who will be in the mix for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. That march toward the No. 1 slot begins in Week 1, when the Saints will be trotting out…Tyler Shough? Spencer Rattler? at quarterback. Kyler Murray is coming off of a disappointing season, but sometimes NFL games are as simple as QB advantages, and Arizona has a massive one here. New Orleans does have some skill-position talent, but the defense took a big step back last season, finishing 28th in yards per play allowed. More than anything, whether it’s Shough or Rattler, I see the Saints really struggling to consistently move the ball on a re-tooled Cardinals defense.
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Stormy Buonantony
49ers Over 10.5 wins (+110) and finish as NFC top seed (+650)
Last year was brutal for the 49ers. It was the definition of penthouse to outhouse, as San Francisco went from nearly winning to losing 11 games and finishing dead last in the NFC West. That colossal disaster was largely due to the fact SF ranked second in the NFL for number of games missed by injured players (226), which included key starters on both sides of the ball.
Looking at this season, it might also be natural to slight SF for the players who will not be back — Deebo Samuel has moved on, as has Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. But I love the makeup of this team.
Kyle Shanahan can continue to utilize his creativity as a play-caller with Christian McCaffrey back healthy, Brock Purdy and George Kittle signed (avoiding any potential marquee training camp drama), a WR room full of potential and the all-important Trent Williams covering Purdy’s blindside.
Defensively, Robert Saleh is back. Say what you want about him as a head coach, but this man is a masterful DC and should re-inject a toughness and stout run-D that’s been missing the last couple seasons. I also think the addition of Bryce Huff isn’t getting enough positive pub. From 2020-22, Huff recorded a 26% pass rush win rate (top-10 in the league). Then, in 2023, the sack numbers increased, having 10 before heading to Philly in FA. He obviously didn’t have the same success with the Eagles, but he had a wrist injury that required surgery. I think he gets back to form playing opposite former DPOY Nick Bosa. I also expect some of the young incoming pieces, namely DE Mykel Williams and DL Alfed Collins, should make an immediate impact.
Now here’s the ultimate icing on the cake: Have you looked at their schedule?! The 49ers on paper have the easiest schedule in the NFL entering this year based on last year’s strength of record and this season’s opponent win total projections. I think they rack up wins, especially early. They should get Over the win total and perhaps even establish themselves as the top seed in the NFC if all goes to plan.
Ashton Jeanty to have 7+ TDs (-140) and 10+ TDs (+260)
I’m not usually the type to pound the table for a season long rookie prop, but I couldn’t help myself. I’m such a fan of Ashton Jeanty, his running style, talent and what he can bring to the Raiders offense. It was a masterful final collegiate season in Boise for Jeanty that saw him lead the FBS in scrimmage yards per game, totaling more than 2,700 all purpose yards, rushing for nearly 1,800 yards on 8 YPC and 29 rushing TDs.
While I’m fully aware NFL defenses and that of the Mountain West Conference are very different, he’s going to an offense in Vegas where he can be the focal point of a completely transformed unit under new HC Pete Carroll and OC Chip Kelly. It’s no secret Carroll is going to want to run the rock.
You’ll notice, however, I’m looking at Jeanty’s scoring potential instead of yards. I still have questions about the Raiders offensive line and him to go Over 1,000 yards this season is -185. Instead, I’m betting him to score. I’m looking at both the standard 7+ Rushing TDs (-140) market and an ALT 10+ TDs. I trust his ability to get yards when needed, break off a big TD run every now and then (complements of some insane contact balance) and to be the go-to guy within 10 yards.
Cowboys Over 7.5 wins (-135)
I might be going full Dave Ross here with this pick, but I really think this could be a buy-low year for the ‘Boys. They went Over their win total three-straight seasons (12-5 each) before dropping to 7-10 last year and exchanging Mike McCarthy for Brian Schottenheimer.
2025 starts with QB1. If Dak Prescott stays healthy, I think Dallas is back in business. Since he entered the league in 2016, he’s played at least 12 games in seven of his nine seasons. The Cowboys have had 8+ wins in every one of those seasons, averaging 10.85 wins per game. He has a new toy and true WR weapon to play with opposite CeeDee Lamb in George Pickens. The run game is still a concern, but I have hopes for an improved OL. Plus, with so many key defensive players back healthy, and Micah Parsons leading the way as a potential sack leader, there’s several reasons to believe that side of the ball elevates.
Lastly, I am aware of the schedule. The Cowboys do have the fifth-most difficult SOS to open the year due to their division and a couple short week games against teams that won 14+ games last year, but a lot of the upper-tier teams they’re playing are also teams I’ve heard arguments for taking a step back in 2025 (Vikings, Lions, Chiefs, Commanders). Let’s not forget they also get the Giants twice, the Panthers, Jets, Cardinals and Raiders as well, who are all teams with a lot of questions. Give me America’s team to put together 8+ Ws.
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Jonathan Von Tobel
49ers Over 10.5 wins (+110) / Over 12.5 wins (+370) / NFC No. 1 Seed (+650)
Everything is in place for San Francisco to bounce back in a big way. Christian McCaffrey is healthy after knee and Achilles injuries limited him to just four games last season. Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a torn ACL, but Jauan Jennings broke out for 975 yards and six touchdowns last season. Ricky Pearsall also showed some promise after getting his season started in Week 7. Brock Purdy has the supporting cast needed to leave his worst season as a starter behind and find his 2023 form once again.
It should also be noted that Kyle Shanahan is a good coach. In four of the last six years, the 49ers have won at least 10 games, have made it to the NFC Championship game four times and won it twice. San Francisco also has the easiest schedule in the NFL by a mile this season. Shanahan will take advantage of that and pile up wins in a monster campaign.
Dolphins Under 6.5 wins (+170)
It is a pivotal season for the Dolphins franchise, but the writing is on the wall for a massive disappointment. Jalen Ramsey is likely gone by the time the season begins, and the noise around a Tyreek Hill trade will not subside. Tua Tagovailoa – who has played fewer than 13 games in four of five seasons – has an abysmal offensive line in front of him on paper. Tagovailoa regressed immensely last season with a career-low ADOT (6.1) and the lowest yards per pass attempt (7.2) since his second year. Miami looks no better on defense. It has a slew of defensive ends recovering from serious injuries. Kade Kohou – a 2022 undrafted free agent – is likely their most consistent corner outside of Ramsey.
There is not much on paper to love about this team in 2025. It does have the ninth-easiest schedule in the league, but if Tagovailoa misses time – and there is little reason to believe he won’t – this team could drop off a cliff. Playing the win total Under is a fine move, but teams usually don’t fall right on their projected win total. If the Dolphins go Under, they will likely miss their current market win total by a decent mark. Six wins or fewer seems more probable than the market believes for this paper-thin roster.
Jaguars (+300) to win the AFC South
This is a play on the price and against Houston in the AFC South. The division is terrible. Houston is an overrated favorite with some clear flaws. CJ Stroud was the most pressured quarterback in the league, and one could argue his offensive line got worse in the offseason. The Texans are also going to rely on two rookies to play pivotal roles at wide receiver. I don’t believe that team deserves to be favored to the degree they are in this division.
That leads me to Jacksonville. Liam Coen is an unknown, but if his offensive system hits, this team has a ton of potential. Brian Thomas Jr. was incredible his rookie season and could thrive in Coen’s offense. So too could Trevor Lawrence. The former first overall pick has regressed each season, but with a litany of offensive firepower and a better scheme, there is a real chance this team takes a step forward. In the AFC South, that step could mean nine wins and a division crown.
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Adam Burke
Broncos to win AFC West (+300)
We’ve been waiting for the Chiefs to wear down for a while now, but I think we may have finally reached that point. Patrick Mahomes was pretty bad by his standards during the regular season. Travis Kelce is clearly getting older. KC basically navigated the regular season thanks to the defense and not the offense.
It seems pretty clear that Sean Payton feels really comfortable with Bo Nix as his QB. And Nix put up some strong numbers last season, including a 29/8 TD/INT ratio over his last 14 games. Things started a little bit slowly, but as Nix grasped the playbook and the speed of the pro game, it all came together well.
This has the potential to be the best defense in the league again and could be even better this season. Denver’s defense was second in percentage of opponents’ drives ending in points and tops in points per drive allowed. DC Vance Joseph is still there and Jahdae Barron is a plug-and-play corner opposite Patrick Surtain II from Day 1. With a group that led the NFL in sacks and was second in yards per carry allowed, Barron just might be the missing piece to take this unit to another level.
Of course I also like Broncos Over 9.5 at -105, which is probably a safer play.
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Mitch Moss
Vikings Over 8.5 wins (play up to -140)
This team played on the final Sunday night of the regular season with a chance to win 15 games and be the No. 1 overall seed. Sam Darnold was their QB. I’ll take my chances with J.J. McCarthy under center as long as Kevin O’Connell is the head coach. I trust this combo to make it work with targets such as Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. KOC is a wizard, and the organization addressed some needs in the offseason to get better. Brian Flores has done a stellar job working as the defensive coordinator since joining the team in 2023. I expect that side of the ball to be a factor yet again this season.
Chase Brown to win Offensive Player of the Year (200/1)
When teammate Zack Moss went down for the season in Week 8 of 2024, Brown went from a nice handcuff to the clear number one option in the backfield. In the eight games following the injury to Moss, Brown averaged nearly 19 carries per game, 5.5 targets, 23.6 touches, and 116.3 yards. He totaled 11 touchdowns on the season. He’s the every down back on one of the highest-scoring offenses in the entire league with an elite QB. I had to take some of this number.
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Gill Alexander
Giants Under 5.5 wins (-120)
Easily the quickest bet I made this offseason. I’m not sure how the Giants get to four wins let alone the six it will require to beat me here. In fact, if the Giants can’t figure out a way to beat the Saints at New Orleans on October 5th, we could very well be talking about NYG making a run at having the worst record in the NFL and, in a worst-case scenario, a winless season. Their schedule is just that difficult on paper. The reason I opted for this market, though, rather than those latter two which would obviously provide more bang for the buck, is that Russell Wilson is under center and some degree of respect has to be given to the ability of a veteran quarterback of his caliber to manufacture a couple wins when not expected. Nonetheless, Under 5.5 wins ought to provide ample cushion to make this a largely sweat-free experience.
Bills/Dolphins 1-2 Exacta AFC East (+290)
In recent years, I’ve thought alternate team season win totals provided some of the best value in season-long markets. With those numbers generally priced in a less appealing manner this offseason, I’ve turned to 1-2 preflop division exactas in hopes of at least replacing those opportunities to some degree. These might be somewhat less sexy than 1-2 exactas in MLB divisions over a 162-game schedule, but I like them in the much shorter 17-game NFL season, as well, and of the six divisions, the most straightforward is the AFC East, which eliminates having to handicap who finishes first. Rather than try to determine if, say, Houston or Jacksonville tops the other in the AFC South, or who between the Niners and Rams wins the NFC West crown, for instance, I’ll take the Bills as the clearest of all division winners this upcoming season and pair them with the Dolphins at a relatively nice payoff, as I’m not quite buying into the Patriots preseason hype I’m hearing and don’t believe the Jets can make a credible run. Don’t let me down, Tua.
Broncos to Make Playoffs (-120)
Remember how the AFC had so many more power-ranked Top 10 teams than the NFC did preflop the last few seasons? Now? Not so much. The Commanders and Packers of the world are up and the Dolphins and Browns (yes, remember that?) of the world, just to name two teams in each conference off the top of the dome, are down. You could extend that to Rams up, Steelers down and so on. The point is, regardless of how one feels about Sean Payton, Bo Nix, and the Broncos, the path to the playoffs seems way easier than it did even a year ago. Will there even be a wild card from the AFC East? How about the AFC South? If I spot you whichever team doesn’t win the AFC North between the Ravens and Bengals and even give you the Chargers (and you know how that goes), is there a team you’d rather have at such a low price to make the playoffs than these defense-led, Nix-coached up Broncos? The answer for me is an emphatic no.
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Sean Green
Broncos to win AFC (14/1)
The Broncos check all the boxes for a team to make a leap and win the conference championship. They have one of the best OLs in the game, a legit home-field advantage, a Year 2 QB who is a gamer and one of the best coaches in the league. The Broncos defense was already good and then they used a first-round pick on CB Jahdae Barron, plus they brought in S Talanoa Hufanga and LB Dre Greenlaw. The Chiefs are dealing with a Super Bowl hangover loss and I’m not sold on Herbert or Lamar in the playoffs. The Bills are rightly the favorites, but they have a tortured fan base for a reason.
Nolan Smith to win Defensive Player of the Year (100/1)
Smith really hit his stride as a pass rusher for the Eagles in Year 2, in particular after the bye. Starting from Week 5 on, he logged 10.5 sacks, including four in the playoffs setting a franchise record. Josh Sweat and Milton Williams departing in free agency means even a bigger role for Smith. Teams will continue to have to double team Jalen Carter on the inside and Smith has the pedigree and opportunity to crack this award wide open. Am I a homer? Yes, but this is going to be a fun long shot that has a legit shot to hit.
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Mike Somich
Bills #1 AFC Seed (+195), Most Wins (+350)
Buffalo won the annual schedule lottery in the NFL. I do not think I have seen a road schedule this weak for a team with a first-place schedule in a long, long time. The toughest road game is Houston, where they will be a short dog at worst. Their three toughest games at home all happen to be spaced out: one to open the season, one midseason and one at the end. They play on short rest just twice and are only in primetime three times.
The main competitors for the AFC top seed have to deal with significantly more difficult divisions as well. The Jets, Dolphins and Pats are nothing compared to the AFC North and West.
The Bills are set up to roll and 15 wins is not out of the question. If they lose Week 1, I will bet this back at a better number.
Texans to win AFC South (+110)
Behind the Bills getting the top seed in the AFC, the Texans to win the division is my favorite bet on the board. Their defense is going to be Top 5 in the NFL with two shutdown cornerbacks and a ferocious pass rush. The offense should also see an uptick this season as well with a new offensive coordinator and more aggressive passing game on early downs.
The division also stinks. You can rule out the Titans, the Colts are a mess, and I simply do not trust this version of the Jags to miraculously get things together this season.
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Zachary Cohen
Jaguars Over 7.5 wins (-110) / Browns Under 5.5 wins (-143) / Steelers Over 8.5 wins (+110)
For my thoughts on the Jaguars, Browns and Steelers, check out my AFC North and AFC South division previews. While I gave out eight predictions in those two division write-ups, these are the three I’m actually taking.
I also have Patriots Over 7.5 (-125), Giants Over 5.5 (+125), Panthers Over 5.5 (-120) and Vikings Over 8.5 (-125) in pocket from when win totals first became available. I wrote those up at VSiN.com on April 3rd.
Vikings to win NFC (16/1) / Vikings to win Super Bowl (33/1)
Not only do I like the Vikings to win nine games, but I think this team has the potential to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl — and possibly even win it. I know Minnesota has a difficult schedule, but that means very little to me. This is a team that had an elite statistical profile a year ago, and the roster looks better in 2025 than it did in 2024.
The Vikings were second in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.091) last year, and they really beefed up their defensive line. They signed Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, who should immediately make a difference for Brian Flores’ group. Isaiah Rodgers was another big acquisition for the team, as he’ll pair up with Byron Murphy Jr. to give the Vikings a strong coverage duo. I’m also interested in seeing if Flores can get something out of Jeff Okudah. Once viewed as a future lockdown corner, Okudah hasn’t lived up to his potential in the pros. But if anybody can fix him, it’s Flores. The former Dolphins head coach is the best coordinator in football.
As far as the offense goes, I’m not going to worry about a Kevin O’Connell-led team. I know Sam Darnold had a career year for Minnesota, helping him earn a big payday with Seattle. Now, the Vikings are seemingly left without a quarterback. But J.J. McCarthy won a national title with Michigan, processes the game at a high level and has a much bigger arm than he’s given credit for. With Minnesota having improved along the offensive line, he’s stepping into a great situation. He’ll have time to throw, an elite play caller calling the shots and one of the best groups of weapons in the league. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are good enough to make average quarterbacks look excellent.
If McCarthy isn’t wildly disappointing, the Vikings should be just as good as last year, when they looked the part of a contender in most weeks. So, at their current prices, I’m buying some stock.
