There are a lot of reasons to be excited about Week 1. The fact that we simply have the NFL back is one of them. From a betting standpoint, though, the early part of any season is usually the best time to have success. Things really tighten up quickly, especially in a market as scrutinized as the NFL. Right now, bettors and bookmakers are both dealing with plenty of unknowns with these teams. Even though the NFL features a lot of the same names and faces year in and year out, there are a lot of new coaches and coordinators and some new starting quarterbacks. All of those things create some variance.
Week 1 numbers have been up since the spring and have moved around a bit as a result of what we saw in the preseason, so these spreads and totals should be pretty good indicators of how the market rates these teams. But, that doesn’t mean that those positions are correct or accurate. There are still some good value bets to be made out there with your NFL Week 1 picks.
Here are mine for this week:
Jets vs. Titans Prediction
Pick: Titans -1.5
Robert Saleh’s second kick at the coaching can starts with the team that fired him during the 2024 season. Saleh was just 20-36 over 56 games as the head man with the Jets and he found a soft landing spot by returning as the defensive coordinator for the 49ers. Now, he’s got another shot and he’ll surely be out to prove something here.
On the other side, Aaron Glenn starts Year 2 after getting outscored by more than 200 points last season. The Jets were hapless on offense with just 4.4 yards per play, even though they ran for 4.6 yards per carry. We’ll see if Geno Smith can provide any stability for the offense, but I wouldn’t say I’m convinced, even though the Jets replaced OC Tanner Engstrand with longtime coach Frank Reich. The 36-year-old Smith has thrown 32 interceptions over the last two seasons and has been sacked 105 times. With a solid defensive mind in Saleh, I would fully expect the Titans defense to be the side that looks markedly better at the outset.
Cam Ward improved as last season went along. Through Week 8, he had thrown six interceptions against just five TD passes. From that point on, he had a 10/1 TD/INT ratio and completed 62% of his passes. I find Brian Daboll to be a good fit here and Ward has a bevy of skill-position options, including Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson, two guys he did not have last season. Tennessee strikes me as a team that could improve quite a bit. I’m less sold on that for the Jets.
Bears vs. Panthers Prediction
Pick: Bears -3 (-115)
This is definitely one of the most public sides of the week, but I expect the Bears to get off to a good start here against the Panthers. Carolina has had ample injury issues so far, with Ikem Ekwonu and Nic Scourton going down very early in camp. Now starting LB Pat Jones missed practice on Monday.
The loss of Rico Dowdle seems big to me, given that he had 4.6 yards per carry, while Chuba Hubbard only had 3.8 and no carries longer than 14 yards. Bryce Young has some weapons at WR and reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Tet McMillan is his best one, but I’m worried about his time to throw in this one with Ekwonu out and rookie Monroe Freeling going through some growing pains per the camp reports.
Continuity is the story for the Bears, as they bring back a large chunk of last season’s team on both sides of the ball. I do like the additions of Devin Bush at LB and Garrett Bradbury at C, as both areas were positions of need and the Bears filled them. I don’t think Carolina is any better with the pieces that they brought in and that was a team that was comfortably outgained on a per-play basis and only scored on 34.5% of their offensive possessions, which ranked 27th.
While I am concerned with the Bears and the loss of OC Declan Doyle, who seemed to really help the team make halftime adjustments, I am confident that Ben Johnson will get this team off to better starts this season.
Commanders vs. Eagles Prediction
Pick: Commanders +4.5; Under 44
Taking both of these separately here, as the total has already moved down three points from where it was in the spring and summer, with a lot of that coming from the reports out of Eagles training camp. Jalen Hurts seemed to struggle grasping Sean Mannion’s offense and the loss of AJ Brown could prove to be a bigger deal at the outset of the season because Makai Lemon missed so much practice time.
We know that the Eagles will have a good defense, so the Under provides a little bit of protection, but with points potentially at a premium, getting the 5.5-point head start is attractive as well. We’ll see what he has left in the tank, but Stefon Diggs should be a highly motivated WR2 next to Terry McLaurin and I really like Chig Okonkwo in a new place after I feel like the Titans didn’t use him enough.
The Commanders invested a ton in the defense and are looking to rush the passer more under new DC Daronte Jones. The Eagles should find success doing that and also made some nice additions in the offseason, especially with Jonathan Greenard. The Laremy Tunsil injury and the musical chairs played at the center position in camp are worrisome, but I’m not sure that the Eagles are in sync enough on offense to take advantage of any good fortune that comes their way.
Daniels has some upgraded weapons this season and Jacory Croskey-Merritt had one of the top Success Rates as a runner per Pro-Football-Reference, so I think that the Washington offense can do enough to stay competitive in what I do expect to be a low-scoring game.
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