NFL Week 1 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
We open up another NFL season this week, and like you, I am as excited as ever for the betting possibilities. However, just for the sake of authenticity, I have trended downward personally, and it may have to do with taking too many games. As I’ve taken more, my percentage has dropped. In fact, three years ago I had one of my best seasons ever, going 87-61-2 ATS, good for 58.8% and 19.9 units of profit. In 2024, after an incredible Super Bowl performance in which I hit six of eight best bets, including two massive underdog wagers, I finished 94-87-3 for +0.52 units. Keep in mind that in Weeks 8 and 9 of the 2024 season, I experienced the worst two-week stretch in my betting life, going 2-16 ATS. Without that skid, it would have been a phenomenal season of another almost 20 units of profit. Then, last year, playing a record 195 games, I went just 96-97-2 ATS.
With that in mind, I’m going to try limiting my games to about 7-9 per week this season to see how it goes, with the variance based upon how much I like the board. For this week, I’m going with nine since I’ve had essentially six months to study the card. Hoping to get off to a good start in 2026, here are my Week 1 best bets, with almost exclusive credit going to the VSiN NFL Analytics Report. Quite honestly, I’d be lost without it.
Thursday, September 10, 2026
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams (Total 48.5)
There’s something about these critical early-season divisional tilts that tend to have me leaning towards Unders on totals. In Week 1 a year ago in Seattle, San Francisco really stepped up defensively, holding the Seahawks to just 230 yards of offense in a 17-13 win. That helped the 49ers extend to a run of 9-2 Under the total in Week 1 games. I would think they are hoping this matchup with the Rams in Australia goes the same way.
The line also figures to have a say in the way San Francisco approaches this game too, as head coach Kyle Shanahan is 29-18 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017. Thinking back to late last season too, this 49ers offense wasn’t exactly clicking, as it put up just 32 points in the final three games, and one of those was a road playoff victory. They have made several changes on that side of the ball this season and are dealing with some concerning nagging injuries too.
On the other sideline, most experts are expecting the Rams to have one of the league’s premier defenses this season, although they will be without Aaron Donald for this one. They also got very few preseason reps for their offensive starters. Travel and unfamiliarity with the surroundings should also play a role, and I believe that’s why 73% of the handle at DraftKings is siding with the Under. When 56% or more of the number of bets has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last three seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 62-54 ATS (53.5%). Game intensity, location, matchup, and strengths all point me to a lower-scoring game.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Give me UNDER 48.5 in 49ers-Rams
Sunday, September 13, 2026
Cleveland Browns (+8.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall public opinion suggests bettors think Jacksonville will remain a team on the rise and Cleveland will be as bad as ever. The public is rarely right, particularly early in the season, and this game has the same feel as last year’s Raiders-Patriots Week 1 tilt where no one gave Las Vegas a shot.
From the sound of it, there are a lot of Browns players on offense that are excited for the new season under first-year head coach Todd Monken. If you aren’t familiar, he has led the Ravens offense the last three seasons, putting up big numbers. While it’s hard to trust an offense that put up more than 20 points just twice in its final 10 games last season, the new regime and the optimism of those running the new system give reason for hope. They also turn back to a veteran QB who has had success in this league when starting regularly, DeShaun Watson. Plus, Jacksonville has the look of a team that may have caught lightning in a bottle last season.
I’m turning to a couple of systems on this one. First, NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 56-24-5 ATS (70%) since 2004. This is, of course, the Browns. Second, laying big points is rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 11-34-1 SU, but they are 32-13-1 ATS (71.1%) in Week 1 since 2013. There is also 78% of the handle at DK on the Jaguars here. What is the definition of a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Well, over the last three years, when a “super-majority” handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 13-25 ATS (34.2%) for -14.5 units and an ROI of -38.2%.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Give me the Browns +8.5 to make this one interesting
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
You think that in Week 1, oddsmakers set up lines in what could be trap spots? To me, this Pittsburgh line feels like one of those games where they are just baiting you to take the Falcons since they are getting “more than a field goal.” In the Mike Tomlin years, Pittsburgh was usually a team I didn’t like to rely on as a home favorite, since they’ve consistently produced in the underdog role for years. However, under Tomlin, there was a strange dynamic with the lines set at exactly -3.5 at home. They were 6-1 SU and ATS in such games since 2016, with an average victory margin of 19.8 PPG. One of those was the Falcons in 2018, a 41-17 decision. That is part of a five-game SU and ATS winning streak for the Steelers in head-to-head play.
Do you think that will change with a new head coach and a very veteran roster? I don’t think so, and as it is, retread head coaches have been more proficient at covering point spreads at home since 2020. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 59-52 ATS (53.2%). Road/Neutral games – 57-60 ATS (48.7%). This combination of head coach Mike McCarthy and QB Aaron Rodgers is certainly going to be fun to watch.
On the other sideline, Atlanta is also beginning a new era under head coach Kevin Stefanski, and he is looking to slow a trend that shows the Falcons as 18-36 ATS (33.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014. Stefanski has named QB Tua Tagovailoa as the starting QB. I don’t like it. I think it limits the offense, one loaded with solid young skill players.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Give me the Steelers -3.5 to take down Atlanta
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (+1.5)
It was a strange trend for Buffalo in the Sean McDermott era. They used to fare quite well against the league’s top defenses, going 28-13 SU and 29-16 ATS versus teams allowing <=19 PPG since 2016. What was strange about it was how badly the Texans and their elite defense beat up on QB Josh Allen in their meeting last year. He was sacked eight times, and the Bills turned it over three times. Oddsmakers have done new head coach Joe Brady no favors in establishing them as a road favorite here. As smaller favorites of -4 or fewer, rookie head coaches have gone 97-73 SU but 71-88-10 ATS (44.7%) over the last decade.
As it is, offense doesn’t tend to travel well from season-to-season: Teams that averaged better than 26 PPG in the prior season are play-against teams in Week 1 of the follow-up campaign, showing a record of 42-26 SU but just 27-41 ATS (39.7%) when not matched up against a fellow high-scoring team since 2013. Instead, it is solid defense that tends to carry over better: Teams that allowed fewer than 20 PPG in the prior season are play-on teams in Week 1 of the follow-up campaign, boasting a record of 30-10 SU and 27-13 ATS (67.5%) when not matched up against a fellow strong defensive team since 2017. With home teams on 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Bills-Texans series, I’ll look for a minor upset here.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Let’s go with Houston +1.5 against Buffalo
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (+3)
By now, it’s been beaten to death that Chicago is the poster child for teams slated to drop significantly this season. After all, the Bears made a meteoric rise in 2025; they were the top turnover team on both sides of the ball, they won a lot of close games, and their defensive numbers were not very strong. Now, while I acknowledge those traits are true indicators of teams that tend to decline, that is not specifically why I am going against them in Week 1. I simply don’t like the pressure that has been put on Chicago for this year by media and oddsmakers alike, and the line for this game, indicating they are a 3-point favorite against a returning divisional champion, puts even more stress on them.
On top of that, the last check I made showed 86% of the handle and 81% of the bets backing them as road chalk. Ugh. Here’s the recent truth about Carolina – it stinks when favored, but is live when an underdog. In fact, since 2015, the Panthers are on an incredible surge of 22-10 SU and 25-6-1 ATS when playing as a dog of +1 to +3 points. At the same time, the Bears are just 28-55 SU and 33-48-2 ATS on the road over the last decade, including 7-9 ATS as road chalk. This is a very unfamiliar spot for head coach Ben Johnson & Co. as they’ve only been road favorites twice since 2021. This head-to-head series also has some potent historical data to digest: underdogs are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between Chicago and Carolina. Let’s say we are giving Carolina 2 points for home-field advantage. Do we really think Chicago is 5 points better? Talk about motivation for the Panthers.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Give me Carolina +3 to cover and potentially win outright
New York Jets (+1.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sometimes the ugliest games on a Week 1 NFL board offer some of the best value. At this point, which of these two franchises, Jets or Titans, has the best chance to change what happened on the field last year? To me, it’s the Jets, who made a huge splash in the NFL draft and brought in a veteran QB to lead what appears to be a much-improved set of skill position players. Geno Smith takes the reins and will immediately benefit from a very interesting trend on how veteran QBs do with new teams: Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 38-34 SU and 48-24 ATS (66.7%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
The Titans have made some changes, primarily in the coaching staff, but their nucleus from a year ago is mostly intact, aside from the addition of WR Carnell Tate. Head coach Robert Saleh has a lot to overcome in Nashville, nothing more prominent than his team. One of the other reasons that Smith figures to have a chance to turn things around quickly for New York is that they were dreadful in turning the ball over last year, and teams that suffered through a season with a turnover differential of -0.9 or worse per game rebound nicely in Week 1 of the follow-up campaign, going 11-8-1 SU and 14-5-1 ATS (73.6%) since 2013 when not matched up against similar. Add the fact that the NY Jets are 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games versus Tennessee, and we could see a rare 1-0 start for NYJ.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: I’ll go with the Jets +1.5 in Tennessee
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (Total 49.5)
I was so tempted to go with the Saints here until I reminded myself that Detroit was one of the teams I thought was best suited to improve on its season record from a year ago for various reasons. This game met several of the top systems I shared for Week 1 in this week’s NFL Analytics report, including the Saints off a 4-6 win season, Detroit laying big points, and the Lions having scored a lot of points last year, which is usually not a good sign of teams covering in Week 1. That said, I can’t go against what has been one of the best scoring home teams in recent memory as they open the season with a fresh slate.
I’m sure we all remember how the Lions crumbled last season, but they certainly didn’t do it on offense. In fact, they continued to put up ridiculous offensive numbers while going 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS down the stretch. With that in mind, I still think New Orleans has a chance to cover and make this game very competitive. The Saints will have to score some points, though. Consider that in its last 40 home games, Detroit has gone 27-13 Over the total while averaging 32.6 PPG. This has also been a historically high-scoring series, with Over the total converting in six of the last seven matchups between the Saints and the Lions. With head coach Kellen Moore one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, and the Saints off a late-season surge where they averaged 24.8 PPG in their last five, this game has the potential for fireworks.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Let’s go Over 49.5 in New Orleans-Detroit
Arizona Cardinals (+9.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Imagine getting behind an underdog a few weeks ago and then seeing some key information to get you hoping that the line doesn’t end up too high. That is what has happened to me in this Arizona-LA game. When I first shared my best bet write-up from the VSiN NFL Betting Guide 2.0, I was backing the Cardinals as +10.5 point dogs.
This is what I wrote. I have three separate angles in my top Week 1 betting systems piece in this guide that say not to dismiss the Cardinals’ chances of being very competitive at LA in Week 1. First off, underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 11-34-1 SU, but they are 32-13-1 ATS (71.1%) in Week 1 since 2013. Second, teams that suffered eight or more close losses in the prior season (eight points or fewer) are also a nice Week 1 option to back the next season, as they have rebounded with a 13-7 SU and 14-5-1 ATS (73.6%) record since 2013 when not matched up against a similar team. And finally, teams that dropped by five or more wins the prior season are a great rebound option for Week 1 of the follow-up campaign, showing a record of 21-17-1 SU and 26-13 ATS (66.7%) when not facing a similar team in the same time frame.
Games like this make betting the NFL very difficult at times. There is no doubt in most people’s minds that Arizona is expected to be the worst team in the NFC this season after losing 14 of their final 15 games of 2025. However, the Cardinals were very explosive on occasion and arguably have one of the most talented groups of young, skilled offensive players in the league. They added to that core in the offseason by bringing in talented Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love. The main question is whether or not they can slow the Chargers enough to be competitive here. Well, considering the LA offense scored just 22 total points in the final three games of 2025, maybe there isn’t any reason for concern? Since writing this, I have discovered that Arizona is 32-21 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2021, but an ugly 2-6 ATS as a double-digit dog. I’m fine with this being -9.5.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Give me Arizona +9.5 in LA
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3)
There might not be a single team in the league that is looking forward to 2026 more than the NY Giants. Not only did last season open the door for a potential long-term nucleus of key players to emerge on both sides of the ball, but in the offseason, the franchise made the move to bring in one of the most successful coaches in the league in recent memory in John Harbaugh. Optimism certainly reigns currently in New York; hence, it’s somewhat of a surprise to see them open as +3 home underdogs to rival Dallas in Week 1.
It’s not like the Cowboys lit the world on fire last year, as they finished 7-9-1 and were the only team in the NFL to allow over 30 PPG. They are expected to be much improved, however, on both sides of the ball as a healthy QB Dak Prescott returns, and several key defensive additions were made. This is a Sunday night NBC contest and should draw significant interest. As of this writing, 70% of the handle and bets at DraftKings were on the visiting Cowboys, and if you follow my DK betting splits systems, you know that bettors have been horrible in divisional games. I’ve always been a believer that road favorites with bad defenses make for horrible bets. We know the Dallas offense will be potent again; the nucleus is intact. We believe the defense will be better based upon changes made in the offseason. I stress the word “believe” because we don’t know for sure. Trusting a road favorite in such a case against the much-hyped rival takes some courage.
Look at two of the strong systems in place here: 1) Divisional home underdogs are 18-14-2 SU and 25-9 ATS (73.5%) in Week 1 since 2009. 2) Teams that averaged better than 26 PPG in the prior season are play-against teams in Week 1 of the follow-up campaign, showing a record of 42-26 SU but just 27-41 ATS (39.7%) when not matched up against a fellow high-scoring team since 2013, home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 21-27-1 SU but 28-19-2 ATS (59.6%) dating back to 2017. Plus, with this being a SNF game, we should also consider that home-field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 21-13 SU and 19-14-1 ATS (57.6%) record since 2019.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Let’s go Giants +3 in a hyped-up MetLife Stadium to at least threaten the upset
For more NFL Week 1 best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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