NFL Player Props
It is so great to have the NFL back and be able to look for those diamond-in-the-rough bets to make, especially when it comes to the player props market. As sports betting increased in popularity, supply had to grow to meet demand. Now, we have large amounts of both and that means the opportunity to find some good value plays on individual performances.
We also have some awesome tools here at VSiN to help with your prop betting picks, including our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections, exclusively available to our Pro Subscribers. Whether you use them as confirmation of a play that you already like or scan through to find the biggest edges, it is just another weapon in your arsenal against the sportsbooks while trying to build up that bankroll.
I also have my First Touchdown Scorer predictions posted for this week, which includes a tracking spreadsheet of 1st TDs for every team and each individual player.
As always, shop around for these Week 1 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, September 10 and are from DraftKings.
Here are my favorite Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets:
Juwan Johnson (NO) Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Game state would suggest that the Saints will be throwing a lot in the second half here, as the Lions are a touchdown favorite in the season lid-lifter for both teams. Tyler Shough was an accurate thrower in his nine starts with a 69.2% completion rate. In those starts, when he was targeting Johnson, the big tight end had an 82% Catch Rate, so when he was targeted, he usually caught the football.
Johnson did only go Over this number in five of Shough’s nine starts, but he averaged 58 receiving yards per game, so when he did go Over, he went Over significantly. Shough had a 69% completion rate when trailing last season, so he was good at taking what the defense gave him in terms of checkdowns and Johnson should be a focal point in that department.
Without Jordyn Tyson, and with Alvin Kamara looking more likely to play, but at less than 100%, Johnson should get a good enough number of targets to get to 42+ yards.
Bucky Irving (TB) Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-109)
Irving and the Bucs have yet another new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson, whose Falcons were eighth and 12th in rush attempts over the last two seasons. Even though the Falcons went 8-9 both of those seasons, they still had a higher distribution of runs vs. pass attempts.
Irving went Over this number in eight of 10 games last season, though Week 1 was not one of them, as he had 14 rush attempts. The other one was in Week 17 when he only had nine carries against Miami. An old-school guy like Todd Bowles will probably endorse trying to play keep away from an offense led by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, which likely means running the ball at a bit higher of a clip.
By comparison, previous OC Josh Grizzard ran the ball on 44.2% of the offensive plays. Robinson had a 45.6% running play rate in 2024 and 45.5% rate in 2025. Irving doesn’t have to worry about Rachaad White anymore and I envision Kenny Gainwell to be used more as a receiving back/pass-blocker.
Jacoby Brissett (ARI) Under 22.5 Completions (-124)
A little bit chalky here, and the expected game state based on the spread should help Brissett’s case here, but I’m not sure how many offensive plays the Cardinals will actually run. The Chargers faced the second-fewest plays on defense last season with just 56.8 of them per game. Given their ability to play a ball-control game, and with an Arizona defense that doesn’t look like it will provide much resistance, the Chargers should have big advantages in plays and time of possession.
When new DC Chris O’Leary was on the staff as safeties coach in 2024, the Chargers allowed a 65% completion rate against. Last season, though, that improved to 60.8%, fifth in the league. With some personnel changes and some adjustments from Jim Harbaugh, O’Leary should be able to continue the path he predecessor blazed in terms of breaking up passes.
O’Leary was the DC at Western Michigan last season and the program was fourth in the nation in sacks and fifth in sacks per game. I’m guessing O’Leary will be aggressive with the Chargers defense as well, which should force Brissett into some hurried throws.
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