Back in the day, Week 2 was a major overreaction week. But, we have all evolved. Bettors and bookmakers have become more patient, as what we see with one data point isn’t necessarily what we are going to get. That said, you don’t want to completely disregard what was in front of your eyes, but it is important not to put too much stock into it until we see what’s real and what’s not. As a result, I don’t think we’ve seen a lot of lines significantly altered from where the lookahead numbers were, except for some games with injuries.
With Week 2 upon us, the lines settled in, and a better idea of who’s in and who’s out with regard to injuries, I’ve put together my favorite picks after going 2-2 in this article last week, as the Commanders scored the late TD to cover, but it also pushed the game Over the total for a split with juice.
Saints vs. Ravens (-8.5, 46.5) Prediction
Pick: Saints +8.5
The Saints go from one tough road game to another, as they’ll head to Baltimore after falling a point short against the Lions. The per-play stats from that game are a little bit misleading, as Tyler Shough threw the ball 56 times, 17 more than Jared Goff, but it was a better performance for the Saints defense than the 31 points allowed would suggest, as they held the Lions to 5.1 YPP. They didn’t have much of an answer for Jahmyr Gibbs, but Goff only had 206 passing yards on 39 attempts.
New Orleans did a lot of good things in that loss. Going 4-for-5 in the red zone was solid, along with 8-of-17 on third down in the first game of Kellen Moore’s second season. Ryan Wright punted the football very well and helped the Saints in the field-position battle, even though three turnovers really hurt, including the two early in the first half.
I would expect Brandon Staley’s defense to be solid over the course of the season and that unit will need to be going up against a Ravens bunch that dropped 41 on the Colts and ran up 7.9 yards per play. Staley’s defense was good at limiting big passing plays last season and in Week 1 and a similar effort would go a long way here, since the Ravens led the league last week with 17.9 yards per catch and were fifth with 5.5 yards per carry.
The Colts had the most yards after catch last week with 169 against this Ravens defense and that will be what the Saints need to do to keep this game close or sniff the possibility of an outright upset. Yards after the catch look like a big deal in Moore and OC Doug Nussmeier’s offense and might be a difference-maker here.
Commanders vs. Cowboys (-4, 50.5) Prediction
Pick: Cowboys -4
It looked like Preseason Week 4 for the Cowboys against the Giants. Dak Prescott wasn’t sharp, the ground game found very little footing, and Dallas committed nine penalties for 90 yards in setbacks. But, there were some silver linings. The Cowboys were 8-for-11 on third down and Prescott wasn’t sacked at all. While the end result was disappointing and new DC Christian Parker’s debut was a bit of a dud, I’d expect a better effort this week.
Dallas was potent with the football, scoring touchdowns on three of their seven drives. The game against the Giants only featured 14 total drives with the teams combining to go 17-of-22 on third down, and with the Giants playing at a super slow pace. The Cowboys scored on their only two possessions in the second half, but couldn’t get off the field.
While the Commanders covered against the Eagles and had a shot to tie on a two-point conversion, they managed just 4.4 yards per play. Jayden Daniels was just 18-of-34 for 164 yards. With a first-time OC and play-caller in David Blough, the early returns were a bit lackluster. Washington was also just 5-of-15 on third down.
While the Eagles only scored 24 points, they had 5.4 yards per carry and six yards per play against Daronte Jones’ defense. They held Philly to just 10 first downs, but gave up multiple explosive plays through the air and on the ground, including three 31+ yard passes. Prescott isn’t the running threat that Hurts is, but he is an objectively better passer and he should be able to pick apart the Washington secondary.
I’m not sure that the offense is in a position to keep up in Blough’s second game with the playsheet.
Colts vs. Chiefs (-6.5, 46.5) Prediction
Pick: Chiefs -6.5
Chalky, Joe Public here, but the Chiefs looked really strong on both sides of the ball in the Monday Night Football opener against the Broncos. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry ran roughshod over the Colts and Daniel Jones did not look very comfortable at all. Patrick Mahomes did and that may be the deciding factor here in this game.
Jones was just 19-of-31 for 166 yards in a game where the Colts trailed badly and needed to throw the football. Jonathan Taylor got his, as he almost always does, but I would fully expect Steve Spagnuolo to have the right kind of approach in this game.
I’m not sure that the Colts and DC Lou Anarumo can fix the run defense in a week. Kenneth Walker III ran for over 170 yards in his KC debut and it seems like he found a really good landing spot after leaving the Seahawks. The Colts were actually second in the NFL last season in yards per carry allowed, but they clearly missed their three 100+ tackle guys from last season, Zaire Franklin, Nick Cross, and Germaine Pratt.
Not only that, but the Colts allowed the most yards after catch of any team last week. Not only did they fail to stop the run with those significant losses, they also couldn’t bottle up the Ravens in the passing game. Those sound like two very bad characteristics against an Andy Reid team.
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