NFL Player Props
A lot of the usual suspects had big games in Week 1, but there were others who stood out that got off to better starts than expected. Every week gives us a chance to analyze snap counts, usage rates, targets, carries, and all of the other prop betting options that are available. Dustin Swedelson already gave us some of his favorite player prop bets that lined up with our OptaAI projections.
We also have some awesome tools here at VSiN to help with your prop betting picks, including our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections, exclusively available to our Pro Subscribers. Whether you use them as confirmation of a play that you already like or scan through to find the biggest edges, it is just another weapon in your arsenal against the sportsbooks while trying to build up that bankroll.
I also have my First Touchdown Scorer predictions posted for this week, which includes a tracking spreadsheet of 1st TDs for every team and each individual player.
As always, shop around for these Week 2 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Friday, September 18 and are from DraftKings.
Here are my favorite Week 2 NFL Player Prop Bets:
Caleb Douglas (MIA) Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Perhaps last week was a fluke, as Douglas, the rookie wideout from Texas Tech, had five catches for 94 yards, but it’s pretty clear that he’s high up on the pecking order. The Dolphins had 56 offensive snaps and Douglas was out there for 51 of them. Only Malik Washington (55) had more snaps outside of the offensive linemen and QB Malik Willis. So, Douglas is going to be out there with chances.
The game state should also help here, as the Dolphins project to trail throughout the game again, and probably by even more than they did last week against the Raiders. Douglas didn’t have any drops on seven targets and caught five passes for 59 yards before contact. With the 49ers probably playing soft zone in the second half, Douglas should have some room to work.
Our OptaAI projections have Douglas down for 48.19 receiving yards.
Jonathon Brooks (CAR) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
While the Panthers were busy giving up a million points and a million yards to the Bears, we got a glimpse of how the playing time might go at the running back position. Even with ample opportunities to get Brooks, who missed the entire 2025 season and only had nine carries in 2024, some reps and some time with the starting offense, it didn’t happen. Brooks had just 13 snaps and only four carries.
He did have an explosive play in the passing game and maybe that will get him some more playing time in third-down situations, but Chuba Hubbard had a 70% snap share and it’s pretty clear that Dave Canales and Brad Idzik have more trust in the more proven player. That may change as the season goes along, but this looks like Hubbard’s backfield right now.
Our OptaAI projections dramatically disagree with 44.11 rushing yards for Brooks this week, so we’ll see if I win or the machines win.
Matt Gay (LV) Over 5.5 Kicking Points (-119)
Klint Kubiak is a very sharp offensive mind and it’s no secret as to why he got this job. He’s there to help Ashton Jeanty and Fernando Mendoza develop. Unfortunately, he’ll be without Brock Bowers again this week, but the Raiders should be able to put themselves in scoring situations, even against a better team in the Chargers.
The Raiders gained 50+ yards on four of their first six drives, including a 93-yard TD drive. But, they slowed down the pace and went into a bit of a shell with the lead over their final five possessions, with three of them going for negative yards. I don’t think Kubiak wanted to show too much in a game that they had in hand. Gay, who was 2-for-2 on FGs and 3-for-3 on PATs, gets to kick inside again here at SoFi Stadium and he’s kicked at a 91.1% success rate in domes in his career, going 51-of-56.
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