NFL Player Prop Bets Week 1:

There are a whole lot of ways to bet on the NFL nowadays and player props are one of the most popular. My VSiN colleague Matt Williams shared his player props and I wrote up my favorite First Touchdown Scorer picks for this week, but I also wanted to throw out some NFL player props for Week 1 for your consideration.

These lines are from DraftKings and are accurate at time of publish, but make sure you do what you can to shop around for the best odds if you have multiple sportsbooks at your disposal. If you don’t consider using some of your bankroll to increase the number of accounts you have so that you can line shop at various books. You may find differences of several yards in markets like these.

 

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Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 1

Justin Herbert Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-105)

An adjustment has obviously been made to this line now that Herbert will be running first-year OC Greg Roman’s offense, but I don’t think that it is big enough. Herbert has averaged 39 pass attempts per game in his four seasons in the NFL, but Roman’s offenses have ranked 31, 31, 32, 29, 31, 32, 32, 32, 9, and 28 in pass attempts in his 11 seasons as an OC. The lone outlier was the 2021 season in Baltimore and that was when the Ravens were really short-handed with Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray as the premier backs.

Herbert missed the almost the entirety of the preseason with plantar fasciitis and returned to practice just a couple of days prior to the final preseason game. I don’t think Jim Harbaugh wants to put a lot on his plate at the outset and the offensive line additions over the offseason point towards wanting to run the rock a lot. I know this line has been moved accordingly based on all of those factors, but I think it is a relatively light day for Herbert.

Ja’Lynn Polk (NE) Over 30.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

For starters, this is an example of shopping around, as I’m trading one yard for 15 cents of vig. His receiving yards prop is 29.5 at -130. I think it’s entirely possible he gets a carry. There aren’t a whole lot of playmakers on the Patriots roster and putting the ball in Polk’s hands by any means necessary could be a sound strategy. He had four carries for 32 yards last season with the Washington Huskies and 69 catches for 1,159 yards.

Game state is a big factor here, as the Patriots are likely to be trailing throughout the game, thus more likely to throw the football a lot. New England invested a second-round pick in Polk, so I think he’ll feature prominently in the offense and he’s got good size at 6-foot-2 to win some battles on the outside.

Cody Barton (DEN) Over 7.5 Tackles + Assists (-130)

A little vig on this one, but Barton will have the opportunity to get a lot of stops in this game. Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb seems committed to running the football and the linebackers are extremely active in Vance Joseph’s defensive scheme. Leading tackler Alex Singleton is lined at 10.5 with 177 combined tackles to his name from last season. Josey Jewell was second, but he’s now gone.

Jonathon Cooper is used as the pass rusher, as he led the team with 8.5 sacks last season. That leaves Barton to fill the hole left by Jewell. In his final season with the Seahawks in 2022, Barton had 136 stops. He had 121 in just 13 games for the Commanders last season. He only has two sacks over his five-year NFL career, so he’s a stay-at-home type of guy and I think he’ll be tackling intruders with regularity on Sunday.

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