NFL Player Prop Bets Week 3:

All of the talk this week in the NFL has been about the low scores and the poor quarterback outputs. Bettors surveying the prop markets are surely taking that into consideration, not only as they evaluate offense around the league, but also as they look for spots where over-adjustments have occurred.

I do think offense around the league will take a step forward the deeper we get into the season, as play-callers alter their formations and schemes to better attack the defenses that they are seeing and also as quarterbacks get more and more reps with their pass-catchers. I think there’s some uncertainty right now on both sides of the counter and that usually leads to good opportunities for the bettors looking to pick off lines that are amiss.

 

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Along with these, I’ve also done my First Touchdown Scorer picks for Week 3.

Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 3

Deshaun Watson (CLE) Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Watson has been under this number in two games thus far and still will not have the services of David Njoku for this week’s game. My belief is that Kevin Stefanski is going to find the most weaknesses in the run defense of the Giants. First-year DC Shane Bowen has not schemed up his Giants defense well against the run, allowing over five yards per carry through the first two games.

Even in the first game, where Sam Darnold seemed to be cooking, he only threw for 208 yards and that included a long of 44 to Justin Jefferson. Aaron Jones ripped off 6.7 yards per pop in that one. I expect that the Browns, who will get Jack Conklin back and potentially have both Dawand Jones and Jedrick Wills at their disposal, will use a lot of D’Onta Foreman and Jerome Ford in this one.

As it stands, Watson has the third-lowest Air Yards Differential (average Intended Air Yards from his average Completed Air Yards) per NFL NextGen Stats and leads only Will Levis and Caleb Williams in that department.

Also, if the game state holds up as the spread indicates, the Browns should be looking to run out the clock and shorten the game in the second half. With that in mind, I also like D’Onta Foreman Over 40.5 Rushing Yards.

Lamar Jackson (BAL) Over 9.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

The Ravens are desperate. You’ve heard that narrative all week, but it’s true. They badly need a win here and Jackson is the type of player who attempts to take over when his team needs him the most. In the season opener against the Chiefs, Jackson ran 16 times for 122 yards, as his team came up just short. He only ran five times against the Raiders, as his team had control for the most part throughout, except for the final minutes of the fourth quarter.

I would anticipate he runs more here, both out of necessity to avoid the pass rush from Micah Parsons and others, but also because this is a spotlight, must-win game for his team. Jackson only went over this number in seven of 17 games last season, but six of the 11 where he didn’t were games that the Ravens won by 14+ points. I don’t see a blowout happening here, but I do see Jackson taking matters into his own hands more frequently.

Over 6.5 Punts in Bears vs. Colts (-115)

This isn’t a player prop per se, but one that I noticed at DraftKings this week. The Bears have punted 12 times in two games, while the Colts have punted six times. Collectively, these teams are 15-for-49 on third down, so that’s just 30.6%. The Bears defense is still a solid unit, despite little help from the offense. And Anthony Richarson’s inaccuracies make it a bit tough for the Colts to move the sticks.

This is a pretty low number all things considered, as the only other game this low is Lions/Cardinals, which projects to be a big-time shootout.

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