NFL Player Prop Bets Week 4:

Week 4 in the NFL features a lot of really interesting matchups from a prop standpoint. You’ve got some big spreads where game state has a really good chance at coming into play, but we’ve also seen a lot of underdogs barking very loudly this season. So that game state hasn’t really come to fruition, as the favorite has been forced to play the whole game and run things as they normally would.

We’re also another week removed from the preseason and I do believe that offenses will get better and more efficient with each passing week. After all, we saw a success rate of nearly 62% in the red zone last week, so teams definitely got better in that department. For the First Touchdown Scorer market, you can check out my write-up here. For this week’s player props, you’ve come to the right place.

 

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Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 4

Andy Dalton (CAR) Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The Andy Dalton Revenge Game in Charlotte! I think the Red Rifle will have to take a lot of shots in this game.

Game state has played a part, but the Bengals have the second-fewest rushing attempts through three weeks. Only the Raiders have fewer. The ball is going to be in Joe Burrow’s hands and his weapons are going to be very tough to stop. Carolina is 25th in Dropback EPA and 30th in Dropback Success Rate on defense. The Panthers rank dead last in Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference and have allowed the sixth-highest adjusted net yards per pass attempt. So, I think the Bengals are going to want to throw and throw often.

To keep pace, the Panthers are going to need to deploy Dalton. He threw 37 times and had 319 yards in the win over the Raiders, who are the worst run defense in the league by yards per carry allowed, so you know what Dave Canales wants to do on offense. With the bad weather out of the Carolinas well in advance of the game and some pretty ideal throwing conditions (80s, sunny, light wind), I think Dalton gets the volume he needs.

Also, the Bengals aren’t getting much pressure thus far and they are 29th in Dropback EPA and 28th in Dropback Success Rate on defense after Jayden Daniels shredded them last week.

Stefon Diggs (HOU) Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

It is my belief that last week’s blowout loss to the Vikings was a good thing for Diggs and QB CJ Stroud. The game state required Houston to throw a lot, and so Diggs had 10 catches on 12 targets for 94 yards. He had 10 catches for 70 total yards the first two weeks. I don’t envy the position that Stroud is in because he has so many guys to share the ball with and a lot of mouths to feed.

Stroud already had a rapport and some chemistry with Nico Collins and Tank Dell. I imagine he was searching for that with Diggs, as the two barely played together during the preseason. We haven’t seen the big plays from Diggs that we are used to, but we might this week. The Jaguars secondary is crushed with injuries. Also, Collins and Dell may not play this weekend. Those two things should open the door for the Diggs breakout game that we’ve been waiting for.

Najee Harris (PIT) Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)

Harris has had at least 17 rushing attempts in each game this season and has gone over this number twice. It is not a coincidence that Harris has had this level of workload and the Steelers are 3-0. Harris has 18 first-half carries and 37 second-half carries, with the game state playing a big role.

I like the Colts this week, so I think there’s some correlation to this. The Steelers haven’t really had to have the ball as much in Justin Fields’ hands or using Jaylen Warren in those late-game situations. This could be the week that they do. The Colts are a play-on team for me and the run defense has been pretty good, as they rank seventh in Rush Success Rate against and 11th in Rush EPA against.

If the Colts are able to pull the modest upset and be ahead in the second half here, then this one should hopefully be in good shape.

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