NFL Player Prop Bets Week 6:

We have 13 games worth of player props to take a look at for this weekend, as four teams are on a bye and the 49ers and Seahawks already completed their Thursday Night Football matchup. There are a lot of angles to consider with the prop markets and, frankly, a lot of ways to try and gain potential edges.

Nothing comes easy in sports betting, but it really does seem like attacking the prop markets is going to be more fruitful than trying to beat the game straight up betting spreads at -110. Maybe that isn’t the case for everybody, but it seems to be the case for a lot of people and thinking about injuries, game state, and usage can give you a nice head start.

 

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Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 6

Caleb Williams (CHI) Over 265.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-115)

We start in London, where the Bears get the home team designation, but clearly are not for the game against Jacksonville. This is the first of two weeks across the pond for the Jaguars, who are an annual participant of the NFL’s London games.

Per rbdsm.com, no team has a larger gap between Dropback EPA and Rush EPA on defense than the Jaguars. They are dead last in Dropback EPA and 11th in Rush EPA. In other words, they’ve been a more effective defense against the run than the pass. Everybody knows it, too. Even though the Jags have trailed a lot, so the game state would suggest running the ball to speed up the game and bleed clock, the Jags came into this week with 187 pass attempts against and 129 rush attempts against.

They’ve allowed the most passing yards in the NFL among teams that haven’t played yet this week. The secondary is getting healthier, so maybe these metrics will turn a little, but I still think Shane Waldron and Matt Eberflus will plan to throw the ball. The running game is subpar as it is, so I think the ball will be in Williams’ hands a lot.

The Jags have allowed 5.6 yards per carry to QB thus far, so if Williams is around his usual five rushing attempts, that should be another 28-30 yards when his passing yards O/U is 243.5.

Jerome Ford (CLE) Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

Ford and D’Onta Foreman have been in some semblance of a timeshare this season, but Ford has 48 carries to 29 for Foreman. The Eagles run defense has been porous this season, giving up five yards per carry. I know that Kevin Stefanski is a throw-first type of play caller, but I also think he’s smart enough to recognize that he can’t keep using Deshaun Watson to the degree that he is.

With a banged-up defense, but a healthier offensive line that will include Jack Conklin for the first time, I think we see a little more balance from Stefanski. To me, that means more carries and touches for Ford, who has played at least 58% of the offensive snaps in four of Cleveland’s five games. The Eagles have been poor against the pass, too, but Stefanski is well aware that his pass offense isn’t on par with the others that Philly has faced. 

Think about it – Ford has only gone over this number once this season, but his line is set over it this week, in a game where the Browns are expected to be trailing and the game state should be conducive to throwing. That says something about the Eagles defense and the Browns offense.

Foster Moreau (NO) Under 9.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

A little bit of a tricky one here, as Moreau may only need one catch to get over this number, but there are a lot of potential factors to keep his output low. Let’s start with game state. The Saints are playing rookie QB Spencer Rattler and the Falcons have flipped into a sizable favorite. In the two games with huge leads, Moreau had 77% and 80% of the snaps. In the last two games, which the Saints have lost, he’s seen his snap share down to 57% and 53%.

Juwan Johnson has been seeing the field more and more, as Moreau is more of a run-blocking type of TE. He only had 25 targets in 15 games last season with the Saints and has eight in five games so far. I’m not sure that you’ll see Rattler composed enough to go through his progressions and find Moreau on any designed routes. In fact, it’s more likely that Moreau is used in pass pro while he’s out there to give Rattler a better chance.

Being a run-blocking TE, the game state might hurt him here. Also, Johnson has eight targets and seven catches the last two weeks with the Saints trailing. Unless they leave Moreau in there more frequently in hopes of protecting Rattler if the game plays to expectation, I just don’t see him involved much.

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