NFL Player Props Week 10:

The Prop Shop is open across the NFL once again, as we have a new set of games and players to bet on. Four teams are on byes this week, leaving us with 12 games on Sunday and one game on Monday. There was a ton of player prop action for the Thursday Night Football game and a lot of Overs came through, so you know bettors will be looking to build off of those successes this weekend.

Overs are definitely more fun to bet than Unders, but the money spends all the same, so don’t hesitate to look for spots to fade a player that may be overvalued. I’ve pondered them all for Week 10 and here are the ones I like the most.

 

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Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 10

D’Andre Swift (CHI) Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)

Remember when Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron told us that they’d be evaluating Roschon Johnson more as things went forward? Well, that hasn’t happened. Swift had a 53% snap share in Week 3 against the Colts. Otherwise, he’s seen at least 62% of the snaps and that even includes last week’s blowout loss against the Cardinals. He had 16 carries for 51 yards.

Based on the line this week against the Patriots and his snap share, I think he gets to 18 or higher here. This line is definitely adjusted up, as his season average is 15.6 carries per game, but he had at least 16 totes in each of his last five games and had 21 carries in the win over Carolina. He had 18 carries for 129 yards in the Commanders game that the Bears led throughout.

New England has allowed 6.4 plays per drive, the sixth-most in the league, and they also have the sixth-highest conversion rate against on third down. Swift has 120 carries on first or second down this season. If the Bears are able to do better than their season average on third down, new sets of downs mean more carries for Swift.

Sam LaPorta (DET) Under 3.5 Receptions (-120)

The Lions have found tremendous success on offense all season long. Surprisingly, it hasn’t included LaPorta, who only has 22 catches on 26 targets in eight games. He’s gone Over this number in three of his five games, but the weird thing is that he’s gone Over in the blowout wins over the Seahawks and Titans. It feels like maybe Ben Johnson uses blowouts to pad Jared Goff’s numbers and tries to stay balanced with close games.

LaPorta is seeing the field a lot, too, so that makes it even more surprising that his involvement has been limited. The Texans have only allowed 24 receptions to tight ends this season. That is the fewest in the NFL and 10 fewer than any other team with nine games played. As you would expect, they have also allowed the fewest receiving yards to TE with 181, 63 fewer yards than anybody else (Lions).

Kyle Pitts (ATL) Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Pitts draws a great matchup here against the Saints. New Orleans has allowed the most yards after catch (YAC) in the NFL by a pretty extreme amount. Pitts is second to Bijan Robinson on the Falcons in YAC, even though he has fewer catches than Darnell Mooney, Drake London, and Ray-Ray McCloud.

The Saints have allowed 505 yards to tight ends, which is the ninth-most in the NFL, even though they are 14th in TE receptions allowed. We have seen the reps for Pitts drop a little bit over the last two weeks against the Bucs and Cowboys, but I think business picks up here. The Saints are actually seventh in Dropback EPA and 11th in Dropback Success Rate thanks to some takeaways and a low number of passing touchdowns against, but they seem to have a blind spot covering TE.

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