NFL Player Props Week 16:

The player prop markets are on the move for Week 16, as we have plenty of injuries and plenty of interesting situations to think about. It is the time of the year where coaches may look at some other guys in hopes of planning for the future, while we also have players looking for key benchmarks that trigger incentives or give them a better chance at some free agent dollars. A lot of motivations are selfish at this time of the year and that can be a big betting angle to think about.

We also may have some teams limiting snaps for players or at least erring on the side of caution with guys that are banged up. There is a lot to process and think about for this week and beyond when it comes to the prop markets, so stay vigilant and consider all of the variables.

 

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Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 16

Aidan O’Connell (LV) Over 244.5 Passing Yards (-115)

O’Connell gets his fifth start here and first one against an objectively inferior team, as the Raiders are favored in this game. His other starts have been against the Steelers, Rams, Chiefs, and Buccaneers. While his numbers haven’t been great, and he’s been replaced due to injury or ineffectiveness at times, this is a good opportunity for him.

The Jaguars are 32nd in Dropback EPA this season and, frankly, they’re dead last by a large margin. Jacksonville has a Dropback EPA of 0.291 and the 31st-ranked team has a 0.181 Dropback EPA. They’ve been awful. They haven’t been good against the run either, but the Raiders don’t have much of a running game these days with 3.6 yards per carry.

Also, at this stage, the evaluation for O’Connell is pretty important I would say. Not that they view him as a starter going forward and they shouldn’t, but he’s more worthy of an evaluation than the backs. Game state has played a role, but the Raiders do have 526 pass attempts against 303 carries. O’Connell should have the chance to put up some numbers.

Keenan Allen (CHI) Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The game state would suggest that Chicago is trailing here, as the Bears are a big home underdog to the Lions. Over the last few weeks, Allen has been getting a lot of looks. He has 41 targets over the last four weeks and 23 receptions accounting for 271 yards. Allen also has four touchdowns in that span for what it’s worth.

With Caleb Williams likely to have to put the ball in the air, I trust Allen, who has gone over this number in three of the last four games to be the reliable possession receiver that he is. The Lions are also in adjustment mode on defense based on all of their injuries, which should be a positive for the Bears offense here as well.

Kendre Miller (NO) Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Kendre Miller does not appear to be in Darren Rizzi’s doghouse to the degree that he was when Dennis Allen was the head coach, but I don’t think we’re going to see him have a big game against the Packers. Green Bay is a top-10 defense by Rush EPA and 11th by Success Rate. It makes sense to force Spencer Rattler to throw by flooding the box.

Miller had a 47% snap share last week, which was his highest of the season. Alvin Kamara played 45% of the snaps last week and Miller was still only able to find nine carries. He actually did really well with 46 yards. I would expect Miller’s snap share to increase, but that doesn’t mean that the Saints will be looking to run a lot as a 14-point underdog.

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