New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
The Sunday afternoon NFC wild-card game is between two teams that have done it with mirrors all season as their records — Vikings 13-4 and winners of the NFC North; Giants 9-7-1 — far exceed their statistics as they’ve both had a knack for winning close games.
These teams met just three weeks ago in Week 16 when the Vikings beat the Giants 27-24 but failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites in a back-and-forth game in which the Giants outgained the Vikings 445-353 but needed a touchdown and two-point conversion to tie the game with 2:01 left before Greg Joseph kicked a Minnesota-record 61-yard, game-winning field goal as time expired.
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The line for Sunday’s rematch is the Vikings -3. Some books opened -2.5, but those were bet quickly to -3, which was the margin of victory in that first meeting. The Over/Under is wavering between 48 and 48.5 points, just under the 51 in that game and right around where it was before Joseph’s winning kick.
Over the course of the season, the Vikings had the more potent offense, ranking No. 7 with an average of 361.5 yards and 24.9 points per game led by the Big 3 of quarterback Kirk Cousins, running back Dalvin Cook and superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Their issue all season has been a defense that is No. 31 in yards allowed per game, giving up 25.1 points per game for a point differential of -3 despite the lofty record.
The Giants have been a middling team statistics-wise at No. 18 on offense and No. 25 on defense. The offense revolves around running back Saquon Barkley, who was fourth in the NFL with 1,312 rushing yards and 10 TDs, plus 91 receptions out of the backfield for another 721 yards and four TDs.
The side and total look pretty solid if you believe this plays out like the first meeting.
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