NFL Post-Bye Week Betting Systems:
Two weeks ago, I introduced the first of a two-part series analyzing trends and systems surrounding the bye week in the NFL. That piece dealt with the pre-bye week data. In this follow-up piece, I will be dealing with the post-bye week analysis.
This week presents the first opportunity to wager on teams coming out of their bye week. There were four teams off last week, the Lions, Chargers, Eagles and Titans. You’ll want to look at the trends for those four in time for this weekend’s games, and then hang on to the rest of this piece for future reference. We will continue to cover these trends as well as everything else we track in our weekly NFL Analytics Reports.
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So far, our pre-bye week systems have been performing reliably, particularly those dealing with teams going into their bye weeks against divisional opponents, as the Dolphins got an outright win at New England on Sunday. For years I have reasoned that the bye week is always one of the most impactful variables on each team’s schedule. Essentially, the bye week breaks up the routine in the NFL, and professional athletes’ performances can vary greatly when there are breaks in routine. These variances naturally offer up great wagering opportunities. Where the bye is placed and how the teams react in and out of that week off can often make a difference of one or two wins.
Clearly, the three-week period involving a team’s bye week (in, off, out) is huge. Since the NFL moved to a 17-game regular-season schedule in 2021, the bye weeks have generally been pushed back to later in the season, thus making it perhaps even more important. So, let’s get to the data, first a group of league-wide systems you’ll want to digest, and second, team-by-team post-bye week trends, along with their scheduled post-bye week game for 2024.
One interesting thing to note before we go further, San Francisco faces four teams this year that are coming out of their bye weeks. Theoretically, that would have to be considered a disadvantage.
Post-bye week system #1
Play on any road favorite coming out of its bye week. (Record: 107-45 SU and 90-58-4 ATS since ’99, 60.8%, +26.2 Units, 17.7% ROI, Grade 65)
Potential 2024 plays (check point spreads closer to games): 10/13 Detroit, 10/13 LA Chargers, 10/20 Kansas City, 11/10 San Francisco, 11/17 Green Bay, 11/24 Tampa Bay, 12/15 Baltimore
Post-bye week road favorite subsystems:
Road favorites vs. non-conference opponents. (Record: 33-15-3 ATS since ’00, 68.8%, +16.5 Units, 34.4% ROI, Grade 68)
Potential 2024 (check point spreads closer to games): 10/20 Kansas City, 12/15 Baltimore
Road favorites vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 32-16 ATS since ’02, 66.7%, +14.4 Units, 30% ROI, Grade 68)
Potential 2024 plays (check point spreads closer to games): 10/13 LA Chargers, 11/17 Green Bay
Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 22-18 SU and 25-13-2 ATS since ’15, 65.8%, +10.7 Units, 28.2% ROI, Grade 66)
2024 Plays: 10/13 Philadelphia, 10/20 LA Rams, 11/24 Carolina, 12/1 Atlanta, 12/1 Buffalo, 12/1 NY Jets
Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 40-18 SU and 33-23-2 ATS since ’99, 58.9%, +7.7 Units, 13.8% R.O.I., Grade 59)
Potential 2024 plays (check point spreads closer to games): 10/13 Tennessee, 11/17 Las Vegas, 11/24 Carolina, 11/24 NY Giants, 12/1 Cincinnati, 12/1 Jacksonville
Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 27-18-2 since ’10, 60%, +7.2 Units, 16% ROI, Grade 59)
Potential 2024 plays (check totals closer to games): 10/13 LAC-DEN, 10/13 TEN-IND, 10/20 LAR-LVR, 10/20 MIA-IND, 11/17 LVR-MIA, 11/24 CAR-KC, 11/24 NYG-TB, 12/1 CIN-PIT,12/15 BAL-NYG, 12/15 DEN-IND, 12/15 ARI-NE
Post-bye week system #5:
Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 18-7-1 ATS since ’14, 72%, +10.3 Units, 41.2% R.O.I., Grade 64)
Potential 2024 plays (check point spreads closer to games): 10/13 Philadelphia, 12/15 Houston
Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 19-9 SU and ATS since ’19, 67.9%, +9.1 Units, 32.5% ROI, Grade 62)
2024 Plays: 10/13 Detroit, 10/20 Miami, 10/27 Chicago, 10/27 Dallas, 11/10 San Francisco, 11/24 Tampa Bay, 12/15 Indianapolis, 12/15 Washington
Post-bye week system #7:
Play on teams coming off their bye week and facing the Chargers. (Record: 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS since ’08, 93.3%, +12.9 Units, 88% ROI, Grade 68)
2024 Plays: 12/1 Atlanta
Post-bye week system #8:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 31-10 since ‘21, 75.6%, +20 Units, 48.8% ROI, Grade 70)
2024 Plays: 10/13 DET-DAL, 10/13 LAC-DEN, 10/20 KC-SF, 10/20 MIA-IND, 10/27 CHI-WAS, 10/27 DAL-SF, 11/10 PIT-WAS, 11/10 SF-TB, 11/17 CLE-NO, 11/17 GB-CHI, 11/17 SEA-SF, 11/24 ARI-SEA, 11/24 TB-NYG, 12/15 BAL-NYG, 12/15 IND-DEN, 12/15 NE-ARI, 12/15 WAS-NO
Post-bye week system #9:
Play against teams coming off their bye week after a loss to a divisional opponent before the bye. (Record: 25-15 SU and 26-11-3 ATS since ’08, 70.3%, +13.9 Units, 37.6% ROI, Grade 62)
2024 Plays: AGAINST LA CHARGERS 10/13
Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games in which a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 30-14-1 UNDER since ’92, 68.2%, +14.6 Units, 33.2% ROI, Grade 62)
2024 Plays: UNDER the total in 10/13 PHI-CLE
* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season, not playoffs.
Arizona Cardinals Post-Bye Week Game: 11/24 at Seattle Seahawks
· Arizona has gone 10-3 ATS in its last 13 post-bye week road games, including 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four
· The Cardinals are on a 6-3 Under the total surge in post-bye week games vs. divisional rivals
Atlanta Falcons Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
· Atlanta is on a 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS run in its last 20 post-bye week games
· The Falcons are 11-4-1 Under the total in their last 16 post-bye week home games
Baltimore Ravens Post-Bye Week Game: 12/15 at New York Giants
· Baltimore has lost four straight post-bye week games ATS after a 9-3 ATS run prior
· The Ravens are 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS in their previous eight post-bye week games vs. NFC foes
Buffalo Bills Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. San Francisco 49ers
· Buffalo is on a 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS run in post-bye week games, and is 20-10-2 ATS dating back to ’93
· The Bills are on a 4-0 Under the total run in post-bye week games, allowing just 15.5 PPG
Carolina Panthers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/24 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
· Carolina has gone just 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 post-bye week home games but did win last year
· Before last year’s 15-13 win over Houston, the Panthers’ prior nine post-bye week games all went Over the total
Chicago Bears Post-Bye Week Game: 10/27 at Washington Commanders
· Chicago is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 post-bye week games, outscored by 12.8 PPG in the nine losses
· The Bears are on a 4-0 Over the total surge in post-bye week road games, allowing 40.8 PPG
Cincinnati Bengals Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
· The Bengals are on a 3-0 SU and ATS surge in post-bye week games after losing their prior five
· Cincinnati has gone 4-0 Over the total in its last four post-bye week divisional games, allowing 36 PPG
Cleveland Browns Post-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at New Orleans Saints
· Cleveland is 5-8 SU and 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 post-bye week games but did beat San Francisco last year, 19-17 at home
· The Browns are on a 10-3 Over the total surge in post-bye week road games
Dallas Cowboys Post-Bye Week Game: 10/27 at San Francisco 49ers
· Dallas is on a 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS run in post-bye week games
· The Cowboys are 16-3 Over the total in post-bye week games since ’05
Denver Broncos Post-Bye Week Game: 12/15 vs. Indianapolis Colts
· Denver has gone 18-7 SU and 19-6 ATS in post-bye week games since ‘00
· The Broncos are on a 12-4 Under the total surge in post-bye week games
Detroit Lions Post-Bye Week Game: 10/13 at Dallas Cowboys
· Detroit is 8-3-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012, however, one of the losses was a 24-6 decision at Dallas in ’22
· The Lions have gone 15-5 Under the total in post-bye week games since ’04
Green Bay Packers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at Chicago Bears
· Green Bay is 9-1 Under the total in its last 10 post-bye week road games
· The Packers are on a 6-1 SU and ATS post-bye week run versus divisional opponents
Houston Texans Post-Bye Week Game: 12/15 vs. Miami Dolphins
· Houston has gone 4-1 Under the total in its last five post-bye week home games
· The Texans are just 1-5 ATS in their last six post-bye week games overall
Indianapolis Colts Post-Bye Week Game: 12/15 at Denver Broncos
· Indianapolis has gone 15-4 SU and 14-4-1 ATS in its last 19 post-bye week games overall, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five
· The Colts are 5-1 Over the total in its last six post-bye week games, scoring 32.2 PPG
Jacksonville Jaguars Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Houston Texans
· Jacksonville is on a 9-5 ATS post-bye week run at home but did lose 34-3 last year to the 49ers
· The Jaguars are 3-0 Over the total in their last three post-bye week divisional games
Kansas City Chiefs Post-Bye Week Game: 10/20 at San Francisco 49ers
· Kansas City has lost its last three post-bye week games versus NFC foes, both SU and ATS
· The Chiefs are 10-3-1 Under the total in their last 13 post-bye week games
Los Angeles Chargers Post-Bye Week Game: 10/13 at Denver Broncos
· The Chargers have gone Under the total in seven of their last 10 post-bye week games
· The Chargers are on a 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS skid in their last 11 post-bye week divisional games
Los Angeles Rams Post-Bye Week Game: 10/20 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
· The Rams are on a 0-3 SU and ATS post-bye week skid after going 10-3-1 ATS in the prior 14
· The Rams are on a 4-1 Under the total run in post-bye week home games
Las Vegas Raiders Post-Bye Week Game: 11/17 vs. Miami Dolphins
· The Raiders are on a 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS skid in post-bye week games overall
· The Raiders are on a 4-1 Over the total surge in post-bye week home games
Miami Dolphins Post-Bye Week Game: 10/20 at Indianapolis Colts
· Miami hasn’t had a post-bye week road game since 2018 but is 8-2 ATS in that situation since ’03
· The Dolphins are 6-1 Under the total in their last seven post-bye week games
Minnesota Vikings Post-Bye Week Game: 10/20 vs. Detroit Lions
· For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye week games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye, 5-9 SU and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14
· The Vikings are on a run of 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in post-bye week games versus Detroit
New England Patriots Post-Bye Week Game: 12/15 at Arizona Cardinals
· The Patriots are on a 1-5 SU and ATS skid in post-bye week games as underdogs
· New England is on a 6-0 Under the total streak in post-bye week games, scoring just 15 PPG
New Orleans Saints Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
· New Orleans has lost five straight post-bye week games ATS
· The Saints are 5-1 Under the total in their last six post-bye week games
New York Giants Post-Bye Week Game: 11/24 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
· The Giants boast a 9-3 SU (6-6 ATS) record in their last 12 post-bye week home games
· The Giants have gone Over the total in eight of their last 11 post-bye week games
New York Jets Post-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Seattle Seahawks
· Like many other situations of late, the Jets have struggled in post-bye week games, 3-12 SU and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15
· The Jets are 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six post-bye week games versus NFC foes
Philadelphia Eagles Post-Bye Week Game: 10/13 vs. Cleveland Browns
· Philadelphia is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven post-bye week games when favored by a TD or more
· Philadelphia is 7-2 UNDER the total in last six post-bye week games vs. AFC foes
Pittsburgh Steelers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/10 at Washington Commanders
· The Steelers are on a seven-game post-bye week game winning streak, as well as a four-game ATS winning streak in such games
· Pittsburgh is 7-1 Under the total in its last eight post-bye week games vs. NFC opponents
San Francisco 49ers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
· San Francisco is on 6-1 Under the total run in post-bye week games
· The 49ers are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight post-bye week games versus non-divisional NFC foes
Seattle Seahawks Post-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at San Francisco 49ers
· In post-bye week games, Seattle has lost its last four SU and ATS after a 6-1 run
· The Seahawks have played poorly in post-bye week divisional games, 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS since ’93
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/24 at New York Giants
· Tampa Bay has gone 4-0 Under the total in its last four post-bye week games
· The Bucss are on a 0-4 SU and ATS run in post-bye week road games
Tennessee Titans Post-Bye Week Game: 10/13 vs. Indianapolis Colts
· The Titans have won eight straight post-bye week games while going 7-0-1 ATS
· Tennessee is 12-4 SU and 11-3-2 ATS in its last 16 post-bye week home games
Washington Commanders Post-Bye Week Game: 12/15 at New Orleans Saints
· Washington is just 4-12 SU and 2-14 ATS in its last six 16 post-bye week games
· The Commanders are on an 0-6 SU and ATS losing streak in post-bye week road games, outscored by 14.2 PPG
