I’m going to wrap up my three-part series this week on expanding the trends offered in the VSiN NFL Analytics Report by looking at the starting quarterbacks for the league: various franchises. Up till now, I’ve examined the tendencies of the teams themselves as well as their head coaches, and clearly there have been some definitive angles that have developed that bettors need to consider in their handicapping. The same goes for starting quarterbacks, as those who man the sport’s most important position have an obvious impact on the betting results of games. Try to work these into your handicapping routine, but if you feel you don’t have the time, relax, as going forward, for the Analytics Report each week, we will be fitting these new trends to that week: games, pointing out each and every time they will apply.

Just like the head coach article from earlier this week, note that even though the current team is listed for each trend, the data used to develop the angle may or may not include previous team(s) that quarterback has been with. Also, if a QB is not listed, most likely the sample size wasn’t big enough or the angles definitive enough to consider it a tendency. Obviously, there could be some overlap with the team and head coach stories from earlier.

 

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Key data point – these records only include games in which that quarterback played as the starter in that game.

THOSE TRENDS DESIGNATED IN BOLD ITALICS ARE IN PLAY FOR THE WEEK 9 GAMES

* ARIZONA: Kyler Murray is 11-1 SU and ATS in the last 12 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* ARIZONA: Kyler Murray is 6-3 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last nine games as a road underdog to the AFC
* ARIZONA: Kyler Murray is just 1-7 SU and ATS in his last eight starts as a favorite
* ARIZONA: Kyler Murray is 7-0 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022 

* ATLANTA: Kirk Cousins is 19-11 SU and 8-22 ATS as a home favorite since 2019
* ATLANTA: Kirk Cousins is 18-11 SU and 20-7 ATS with his team coming off a road loss since 2015
* ATLANTA: Kirk Cousins is 20-7 Over the total as a single-digit home favorite since 2019
* ATLANTA: Kirk Cousins is 11-2 Over the total in the last 13 games as a divisional road underdog
* ATLANTA: Kirk Cousins is 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS in the last eight games as road favorite 

* BALTIMORE: Lamar Jackson is 26-8 SU and 22-11 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
* BALTIMORE: Lamar Jackson is 22-11 SU and 11-21 ATS as a single-digit home favorite since 2018
* BALTIMORE: Lamar Jackson is on a 7-4 SU and 10-1 ATS run as an underdog of +3 to +7 points
* BALTIMORE: Lamar Jackson is on runs of 8-1 SU and 8-0 ATS vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* BALTIMORE: Lamar Jackson is 8-4 SU but 2-10 ATS in the last 12 games vs. poor teams with winning percentage <=33% 

* BUFFALO: Josh Allen is 33-18 Under the total on the road since 2018
* BUFFALO: Josh Allen is on 18-5 SU and ATS surge vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG
* BUFFALO: Josh Allen is 21-10 Under the total with his team coming off an outright loss since 2018

 * CAROLINA: Bryce Young is 2-17 SU and 5-13 ATS in the last 18 starts as an underdog
* CAROLINA: Bryce Young is on 7-0 Under the total run with his team coming off a double-digit loss 

* CINCINNATI: Joe Burrow is on 8-9 SU but 15-2 ATS run as an underdog of +3 to 7 points
* CINCINNATI: Joe Burrow is 10-7 SU and 14-3 ATS in the last 17 starts vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* CINCINNATI: Joe Burrow is 13-2 Under the total versus non-divisional AFC foes since 2022
* CINCINNATI: Joe Burrow is on a 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS surge, with his team coming off an outright road loss 

* CLEVELAND: Jameis Winston is on 12-2 Over the total surge vs. poor teams with point differentials of -4.5 PPG or less
* CLEVELAND: Jameis Winston is on 5-6 SU and 1-9 ATS skid as a home favorite of -3 to -7 points
* CLEVELAND: Jameis Winston is on 7-0 Over the total streak as a short underdog of less than +3-points
* CLEVELAND: Jameis Winston is on a skid of 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG 

* DALLAS: Dak Prescott is 30-5 SU and 27-8 ATS in divisional games since 2017
* DALLAS: Dak Prescott owns a poor 22-28 SU and 16-34 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016
* DALLAS: Dak Prescott is 17-6 SU and ATS when his team is playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2016
* DALLAS: Dak Prescott is 11-1 Over the total with his team coming off a home win since 2022
* DALLAS: Dak Prescott is 9-0 Over the total with his team playing as home favorites of more than 7 points since 2021
* DALLAS: Dak Prescott is on 2-10 SU and ATS skid as a single-digit underdog

* DETROIT: Jared Goff boasts an incredible 15-8 SU and 19-4 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2021
* DETROIT: Jared Goff is 10-10 SU and 17-3 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2021
* DETROIT: Jared Goff is 12-5 SU and 14-3 ATS in divisional games since 2021
* DETROIT: Jared Goff is on a 9-0 SU and ATS streak with his team coming off an outright loss
* DETROIT: Jared Goff is 7-5 SU but 3-9 ATS as a home favorite of more than 7-points since 2018 

* GREEN BAY: Jordan Love is on 10-3 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win

* HOUSTON: CJ Stroud is on 10-2 Under the total surge vs. teams with winning records
* HOUSTON: CJ Stroud is 12-4 Under the total in the last 16 games with his team coming off a win 

* INDIANAPOLIS: Joe Flacco is 19-4 Under the total with his team coming off a divisional loss since 2012
* INDIANAPOLIS: Joe Flacco is 17-6 Under the total in starts versus divisional foes since 2016
* INDIANAPOLIS: Joe Flacco is 11-2 Over the total in December games since 2016
* INDIANAPOLIS: Joe Flacco is 17-1 SU but just 5-13 ATS as a home favorite of more than 7 points since 2010 

* JACKSONVILLE: Trevor Lawrence is on 8-0 UNDER the total streak with his team coming off a loss to a NFC foe
* JACKSONVILLE: Trevor Lawrence boasts a 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS record with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2022
* JACKSONVILLE: Trevor Lawrence is on 0-6 SU and ATS skid vs. teams with poor defenses allowing >=27 PPG
* JACKSONVILLE: Trevor Lawrence is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with his team coming off an upset win since 2022

* KANSAS CITY: Patrick Mahomes is 14-10 SU but just 5-18-1 ATS following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points since 2020
* KANSAS CITY: Patrick Mahomes is on 10-2 SU and 12-0 ATS roll as a road underdog
* KANSAS CITY: Patrick Mahomes boasts a 27-9 SU and 23-11 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
* KANSAS CITY: Patrick Mahomes is 18-3 SU and 16-5 ATS in his last 21 tries when his team has won at least the last three games ATS
* KANSAS CITY: Patrick Mahomes is 9-0 Under the total in the last nine games when his team is playing opponents with elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG 

* LA CHARGERS: Justin Herbert is on 10-0 Under the total streak when his team is playing on normal rest (7 days)
* LA CHARGERS: Justin Herbert is 11-4 Over the total in the last 15 games when his team is coming off a non-divisional AFC loss
* LA CHARGERS: Justin Herbert is 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021 

* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 32-61 SU and 33-58 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
* LA RAMS: Matthew Stafford is 4-15 SU and 3-15-1 ATS in his last 18 November starts
* LA RAMS: Matthew Stafford is 8-28 SU and 12-23 ATS as a home underdog since 2011
* LA RAMS: Matthew Stafford is 19-10 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* LA RAMS: Matthew Stafford is 8-1 SU and ATS in his last nine December starts

* LAS VEGAS: Gardner Minshew is on 0-7 SU and ATS skid as a road underdog of +3 to +7 points
* LAS VEGAS: Gardner Minshew is on 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS surge vs. teams with poor offenses scoring <19 PPG
* LAS VEGAS: Gardner Minshew is 8-1 Over the total in the last nine following up a game where his team scored <=14 points

* MIAMI: Tua Tagovailoa is on 12-4 SU and ATS surge with his team coming off a home win
* MIAMI: Tua Tagovailoa is 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
* MIAMI: Tua Tagovailoa is 1-7 SU and ATS in his last eight starts versus teams with winning records 

* MINNESOTA: Sam Darnold is 22-8 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
* MINNESOTA: Sam Darnold is 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS in the last 14 starts vs. teams with losing records
* MINNESOTA: Sam Darnold is on 7-1 SU and ATS surge as an underdog 

* NEW ORLEANS: Derek Carr is 8-13 SU and 3-18 ATS vs. poor defensive teams allowing >=27 PPG since 2014
* NEW ORLEANS: Derek Carr is 19-6 Over the total as a home dog of +3 to +7 points since 2014
* NEW ORLEANS: Derek Carr is 5-10 SU and 1-13 ATS as a road favorite since 2020
* NEW ORLEANS: Derek Carr is on 12-1 Over the total run vs. teams with a better record
* NEW ORLEANS: Derek Carr is 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in the last 12 starts vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG
* NEW ORLEANS: Derek Carr is on 8-0 OVER the total streak as home underdog of +3 to +7 points 

* NY GIANTS: Daniel Jones is 32-13 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
* NY GIANTS: Daniel Jones is 9-9 SU and 14-4 ATS as a road underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019
* NY GIANTS: Daniel Jones is 15-16 SU and 20-12 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
* NY GIANTS: Daniel Jones is 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS vs. teams with elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG since 2020
* NY GIANTS: Daniel Jones is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in the last seven following up a game in which his team scored <=14 points

* NY JETS: Aaron Rodgers is 18-5 SU and ATS with his team coming off a divisional loss since 2010
* NY JETS: Aaron Rodgers is 20-7 Over the total as a single-digit road favorite since 2015
* NY JETS: Aaron Rodgers is 12-2 Over the total in January games since 2017
* NY JETS: Aaron Rodgers is 8-12 SU and 5-15 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021
* NY JETS: Aaron Rodgers is 11-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* NY JETS: Aaron Rodgers is on a 7-1 SU and ATS run as a divisional home favorite 

* PHILADELPHIA: Jalen Hurts is 17-4 Over the total with his team coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA: Jalen Hurts is 17-7 Under the total in his last 24 road games
* PHILADELPHIA: Jalen Hurts is 11-1 Under the total with his team coming off an outright loss since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA: Jalen Hurts is 7-3 SU but 0-9-1 ATS in the last 10 games vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG
* PHILADELPHIA: Jalen Hurts is on 12-3 SU and ATS run vs. teams with elite defenses allowing <19 PPG 

* PITTSBURGH: Russell Wilson is 22-14 SU and 26-11 ATS vs. teams with elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2012
* PITTSBURGH: Russell Wilson is 18-3 Under the total as a road favorite vs. non-divisional conference foes since 2013
* PITTSBURGH: Russell Wilson is on 14-4 Over the total surge vs. teams with better records
* PITTSBURGH: Russell Wilson is 10-1 Under the total in his last 11 November starts
* PITTSBURGH: Russell Wilson is on a 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS skid with his team on short rest (<7 days)
* PITTSBURGH: Russell Wilson boasts a 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS record as a home underdog since 2012
* PITTSBURGH: Russell Wilson is 8-0 Over the total in the last eight starts as non-conference road underdog
* PITTSBURGH: Russell Wilson is 7-0 Over the total in January games since 2020 

* SAN FRANCISCO: Brock Purdy is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in the last six starts following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points
* SAN FRANCISCO: Brock Purdy is just 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS in the last 12 vs. teams with lesser records
* SAN FRANCISCO: Brock Purdy is on 8-2 Over the total surge vs. divisional opponents 

* SEATTLE: Geno Smith is just 10-11 SU and 6-14-1 ATS in the last 21 starts vs. teams with lesser records
* SEATTLE: Geno Smith is 7-7 SU but 10-4 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2013 * TAMPA BAY: Baker Mayfield is 11-8 SU but 5-14 ATS as a home favorite since 2020

* TAMPA BAY: Baker Mayfield is on 9-0 Under the total streak as underdog of more than 7-points
* TAMPA BAY: Baker Mayfield is 8-16 SU but 15-9 ATS as a road underdog since 2020

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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