NFL Survivor
The Survivor train rolls on for some. It fell off the tracks a long time ago for others. Those who are still alive have tough decisions coming down the pike, especially as the better, more trustworthy teams are crossed off the list of available selections. There are only so many teams that are consistent in the NFL and those entrants still standing probably don’t have many of them left.
Fortunately, depending on your pool and your connections, there may be some ways to monetize your investment now, either by selling off a piece or pairing up with somebody who has teams available that you do not. That’s what the Survivor Sweat marketplace can do as a service for those in Circa Survivor. If you are in a private pool, consider talking to the others who are still alive or consider some hedging opportunities.
We’ve had some bloodbath weeks, but last week was not one of them, as the Seahawks held serve as the most popular team and the Falcons were the only team to eliminate an entry. Our Circa Survivor dashboard by Jason Latus has an incredible amount of information, including the teams remaining for the 609 entries that are still alive. That is just 2.4% of the field, as we started with 25,017 way back when. Each $1,000 investment still standing is now worth more than $41,000.
Alright, you have the tools. You have some options. Now it’s time to look at this week’s possibilities.
The anthology written about Survivor contests in the 2020s will lead with the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have wiped out large swathes of the field in recent seasons and nearly did it again this past week, outlasting the Titans 43-36 in overtime. Despite those transgressions, 53% of remaining Circa Survivor players rolled the dice with Joe Burrow & Co. and had years stripped from their lives.
There are only 610 entries left of the 25,017 that started. The Circa Grandissimo had 77 entries and is down to three. Nobody was eliminated last week, but all three had the Bengals, so it was a downright scary day. Our Circa Survivor dashboard has all kinds of awesome bells and whistles to help you keep an eye on who has who left and which entries appear to be in the best shape.
This week, we have an enormous road favorite on Thursday night that most of the field has already taken. There are some really tough decisions to make because the big favorites this week are mostly teams that have holiday considerations. If your Survivor rules don’t have that wrinkle, then you probably have a lot more options at your disposal than those who are playing with that rulebook.
The goal here will be to continue sharing information on the contest as a whole, but also to share my insights on the week at hand. Even though this article “entry” was knocked out a while ago, I am keeping in mind the likely availability that remains, so as to present relevant notes and nuggets.
Once again, we’ll be using the Survivor tools from PoolGenius to plot out a course for the season and evaluate the pool picks each week.
Week 10 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Giants (-2.5) over Commanders
Can I interest you in rolling the dice? The Giants do have three better spots than this according to PoolGenius – Week 12 at Indianapolis, Week 15 vs. Cleveland, and Week 18 vs. Philadelphia. The tie in the standings is a result of the first meeting between these two teams, a game where the Giants ran 24 more plays and outgained the Commanders by 30 yards. Washington’s 6.3 YPP were more impressive than New York’s 4.9, but most of the gap was a result of nine carries for 103 yards from Jayden Daniels.
It’s a short week and the Giants are at home. Since the start of the 2022 season, so I’m trying to remove any COVID considerations, home favorites are 40-17 on Thursday Night Football. Teams that are favored by three or less are 10-8. So, it’s not exactly an ideal position, but trying to sneak the Giants through to have a casual Sunday seems appealing.
Also, 92.1% of the Circa Survivor field has the Giants available per our dashboard, so that’s all the more reason to write about them here since they are a viable option. PoolGenius has them at 52% and our projections have them at 55.1%.
Seahawks (-6.5) over Raiders
You can’t fault the Raiders for turning half of a season of Kirk Cousins into a pretty valuable draft pick, but the timing of the trade certainly makes life hard on No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. He’ll start his NFL career with the Seahawks, Broncos, and Browns before the bye week.
It hasn’t been the cleanest season offensively for Seattle, but the Seahawks are fifth in EPA/play on defense per RBSDM, fourth in Dropback EPA, and third in Dropback Success Rate. Surely Mendoza starting will create a bit of a buzz at Allegiant Stadium, but even at 4-5, it feels like the Raiders’ playoff hopes have gotten infinitely harder to achieve.
Even though Seattle was really popular last week, 58% of the remaining Circa Survivors still have the Seahawks available. That is mostly because they play on Christmas against the Rams, so contestants have held them back in case they are needed then. PoolGenius has the Seahawks at 74% this week and our dashboard says 71.4%. I’ve already used them for the purposes of this article and I don’t repeat teams.
Rams (-9.5) over Cardinals
It seems like the Rams have finally righted the ship. They’ve ripped off three wins in a row and should be able to make it four with a matchup against Carson Beck and the Cardinals. Ageless wonder Josh Johnson has made his way to yet another football team, so we could see him in this game as well, as Jeremiyah Love continues to be out hurt. The starting WR for Arizona are Reggie Virgil, Simi Fehoko, and Devin Duvernay. I promise those are all real football players.
The Rams are something of a conundrum. They are slated to play on both holiday “weeks” with the Packers on Thanksgiving and the Seahawks on Christmas. Even though PoolGenius has them as the top choice at 83% and our projections have them as the second choice at 77.7%, holding off seems like the best call if you have to consider the holidays.
Our dashboard shows 84.1% of entries holding the Rams still, but that’s because of the holiday considerations.
Bills (-7.5) over Jets
The old JETS acronym is alive and well again, as Just End The Season continues to be the rallying cry. With just two wins in nine tries, it looks like the Jets will drop another one at the Meadowlands this week. The only silver lining might be that it’s not a great spot for Buffalo coming off of a road MNF game to go back on the road again on a short week, but is that really enough of a selling point to believe in the Jets?
As is the case with the Rams, though, the Bills also play on both holiday “weeks,” thus creating a bit of a Catch-22. Buffalo is also projected to be favored in both holiday games – Thanksgiving against the Chiefs at home and Christmas at the Broncos. Then there’s also the fact that the Bills host the Dolphins next week and PoolGenius has them at 91%, the highest win probability of any game that I’ve seen to this point.
The other interesting wrinkle here is that our Circa Survivor dashboard shows 89.3% of remaining entries with Buffalo. That’s 544 of the 609. Again, that’s due to saving them for the holidays, but is it possible that we see some entries, especially ones that have paired up to have more holiday options, roll with the Bills this week or next? They are 77.1% to win per our numbers and 77% per PoolGenius.
Jaguars (-10.5) over Titans
This will be a very popular pick for those who actually have Jacksonville available. Per our dashboard, that is just under 25% of the remaining entries in Circa Survivor. As I’ve said before, I’m not repeating teams in this article, even though the “entry” was knocked out early in the season.
Jacksonville made some big splashes via trade and the bandwagon is crowded. They were always going to be a big favorite in this game against Tennessee, but public perception will probably keep pushing this line further north.
The Titans have one win. They are coming off of the bye and have played tight games in five of their seven losses. This one could get sweaty. With Jacksonville not playing on either holiday “week,” it will be hard not to take them if you have them. That said, they do host Tennessee in Week 12 and PoolGenius has them at 86% to win that one. In fact, except for Week 13 against Chicago, the Jags are 56% or better in every other game, including 81% this week.
Our projections have the Jags at 80.8%. With 24.8% in the field having Jacksonville, that’s 151 out of a possible 609 still standing. I’d expect most of those to be on the Jags.
NFL Week 10 Survivor Pick
Ravens (-4.5) over Chargers
There are a lot of layers here. The first is that taking a Monday Night Football game gives remaining Survivors an extra day to see how Sunday shakes out. If it plays out like last week and nobody gets eliminated, that would be extremely unfortunate. If it plays out like some of the weeks earlier this season, then it will clarify some things about how much the entry is worth and create some hedging opportunities.
Frankly, I just don’t see the winless Chargers coming cross-country to beat the Ravens. This isn’t the Harbowl anymore, but Jesse Minter desperately needs this win. Baltimore has dropped four in a row, but gets a bit of a break with the schedule. The addition of an adult in the QB room in Jacoby Brissett can’t hurt either, as Joe Fagnano and Kedon Slovis are not viable options with Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both out. Other than the QB position, the Ravens are pretty healthy, so the level of underachievement is rather shocking.
It is hard to put into words just how bad the Chargers have been. Here’s one good example, though. Until the fourth quarter TD from Quentin Johnston last week, the Chargers had gone 12 quarters and 37 consecutive drives without a touchdown.
I’m not sure the situation gets a lot better for Baltimore if we wait until Week 16 against the Browns or Week 18 against the Steelers, which are apparently higher win probability games than this one per PoolGenius, which has the game at 64%. Our numbers show 65.7% with 44.2% of the field able to take Baltimore.
Pick: Ravens
Teams Used: Jaguars, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals, 49ers, Texans, Bengals, Seahawks
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