NFL Survivor
Another week of carnage in Survivor pools is behind us. For those who are still standing, including our own Matt Brown and Matt Youmans, the picks get tougher and more stressful from this point forward. Survivor Sweat actually power-ranked Brown’s remaining entry fourth out of 660. Our deeply-detailed Circa Survivor dashboard from Jason Latus has a different opinion on the best remaining entries, but needless to say that everybody still standing is in a good spot, as the rise of Survivor marketplaces can lead to some guaranteed equity from a $1,000 starting position.
As noted on our dashboard, those $1,000 entries still alive are now worth an implied value of $37,905. That pales in comparison to what Circa Grandissimo entries are worth, as there are only three of them left out of the 77 that started. Each one of those has an implied value of $2,566,666. Surely discussions are being had among those parties about everybody getting something for their time and effort, while also keeping some kind of carrot to chase.
The goal here will be to continue sharing information on the contest as a whole, but also to share my insights on the week at hand. Even though this article “entry” was knocked out a while ago, I am keeping in mind the likely availability that remains, so as to present relevant notes and nuggets.
Once again, we’ll be using the Survivor tools from PoolGenius to plot out a course for the season and evaluate the pool picks each week.
Week 8 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Jaguars (-10) over Colts
Jacksonville is in a good spot here. The Colts are a mess and the Jags are off of a bye after coming home from London. This line and their win probability is basically right on par with Cincinnati, a team that has destroyed a lot of hopes and dreams in this contest over the years. Those who are shy about using Cincinnati have to think about Jacksonville.
In this article, I took the Jags in Week 1 against the Browns. Even though I’ve “lost”, I’m not repeating teams in the spirit of the contest and to keep the article information fair and transparent. A lot of people took Jacksonville in Week 1, but there haven’t been a lot of other strong places to use them since. This is easily the best one since that season opener.
Jacksonville is not a holiday team. Per our Circa Survivor dashboard, 37.6% of the remaining entries have the Jaguars available. That’s a pretty good chunk of the field and it sure does seem as though entries scared of taking the Bengals have a great backup plan.
Our Circa Survivor dashboard has the Jaguars at 76.6% to win, while PoolGenius has 79%.
Cowboys (-7) over Cardinals
It hasn’t been the smoothest ride for the Cowboys this season, but they did beat the Eagles on Monday Night Football last week to ride a little bit of a high into this week’s early kickoff against the visiting Cardinals. Arizona is probably a little bit better than many of us expected, but they’ve still allowed over 200 points through seven games and four of their five losses are by 12+ points, so they’ve been uncompetitive more often than not.
Arizona’s getting outgained by 1.5 yards per play on the season. They are 25th in offensive points per drive and 30th in defensive points per drive. This is an objectively bad football team, despite that random win over the Rams. The Cowboys have been outgained on a per-play basis, but continue to thrive on offense with 2.97 points per drive, which is second in the league.
Unfortunately, Dallas has a bad defense, but the Cowboys should get a little bit of a respite again this week against the Cardinals, much like they did last week against the Eagles.
As usual, though, the holidays are under consideration and Dallas looks like the top Thanksgiving team right now against the hobbled Eagles, who they just beat on the road. They get them at home on Turkey Day and are 72% per PoolGenius to win that game. They are 75% this week and also in Week 11 against the Titans, but you have to save them if the holidays are something you need to worry about. The Rams are the only other team with an implied win probability over 60% for the Thanksgiving “week” per PoolGenius.
The Cowboys are certainly an option for Circa Survivor players. In fact, 91.5% of the remaining entries have them, but many will save them for Thanksgiving in hopes of getting there. Our numbers have them at 71.8% to win this week, while PoolGenius has 75%.
Patriots (-7) at Dolphins
Road favorites in divisional games are often scary, but going up against Miami has been a really popular path in this contest thus far. Kudos to the Dolphins, who will not be the inverse of the 1972 Dolphins by going winless. But, they’re facing a much better opponent here this week than they did last week.
There is a pretty compelling case for taking the Patriots this week. Per PoolGenius, the only game with a higher implied win probability is in Week 18 with the Dolphins up at Foxboro. That is a long time to wait. PG has the Patriots at 60% in Week 14 against the Vikings and 63% against the Jets in Week 16. That makes this a pretty good spot to use them.
Even though the Patriots already played the Jets, I didn’t use them in this article. Our Circa Survivor dashboard says that 31.7% of the remaining entries have the Patriots left. So, again, for those scared of the Bengals, the Patriots or Jaguars look like very reasonable options.
Commanders (-6) over Eagles
This is the wild card of the week and a very, very interesting proposition. The entirety of the Circa Survivor field has the Commanders available. We have them at 64.5% to win. PoolGenius is more aggressive at 69%. This is one of two games where the Commanders project to be favored the rest of the way. They are not a holiday week team. They are off of a bye.
Is that a gamble worth taking? A team that is 1-4-1 on the season? I don’t know. I don’t think we’ll see a lot of people try it, but there is a method to the madness here. Again, as I’ve repeatedly said, with Circa Survivor rules, you need to take 20 of the league’s 32 teams to win. I do still think this contest goes the distance, even with so many entries already out. Sneaking through a team like the Commanders really strengthens your standing later if you can keep the Patriots, Bengals, Jaguars, etc.
This brings me to the weekly question in Survivor. Do I prioritize going 20-0 or 1-0? Given all the upsets and calamity we’ve seen so far, I think a shorter-term mindset is how most are operating. Those who are willing to embrace a little bit more gamble could go this route.
NFL Week 8 Survivor Pick
Bengals (-10.5) over Titans
There is a lot of PTSD for Survivor players with this Cincinnati team. The 2024 version lost in Week 3 as a 7.5-point favorite against the Commanders and also in Week 1 as an 8-point favorite against the Patriots. For good measure, they lost to the Browns as an 8.5-point favorite in Week 18 last season. They have lost six times laying a touchdown or more since Halloween 2021.
Alas, they are the optimal team to take this week. No holidays. Biggest favorite on the board. Off of a win and a recent bye week. Way better on offense. The Titans have mustered just 1.49 points per drive, which ranks 31st. They’ve only managed 4.6 yards per play. They are 31st in points and 32nd in yards.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are fifth in points per drive, four in points, 13th in yardage, and have scored on 47.5% of their offensive possessions. The Titans have scored on 29.9% of theirs. Even though Tennessee’s defense has played admirably despite the total lack of help from the offense, including 10 giveaways, the Bengals are at home, pretty rested and healthy, and should take care of business. Given that 84.4% of the remaining Circa Survivor entries have them available, this will be the most popular pick and it’s tough to disagree.
Our Circa Survivor dashboard shows an 82.2% win probability for the Bengals. PoolGenius shows 80%.
Pick: Bengals
Teams Used: Jaguars, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals, 49ers, Texans
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