The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games on January 25, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

· Home teams that won 14 or more games in the regular season are 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS (75%) in their last 12 conference championship games.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (+4.5 vs NE), SEATTLE (-2.5 vs LAR)

· Matchups pitting a #1 seed versus a #2 seed in the conference championship games have trended Over the total at a 14-5-1 (73.7%) rate since ’02.
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NE-DEN (o/u at 42.5)

* NFL teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 23-9 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) in their last 33 revenge tries
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+2.5 at SEA)

– Home teams gaining less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt have found the playoffs tough, as they are just 22-27 SU and 17-30-2 ATS (36.2%) since 2002.
System Match (FADE): DENVER

* Under the total is 10-5 in the Rams-Seahawks set at Seattle since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-SEA (o/u at 46.5)

· The outright winner has covered the point spread in all but seven of the last 48 (85.4%) conference championship playoff games. The most recent team to not do that was in 2024, when San Francisco (-7.5) emerged 34-31 over Detroit after a late Lions score secured the ATS win.

· There have been 10 road favorites in the last 26 years of the conference championship playoffs, and those teams are 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS.
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW ENGLAND

· Conversely, hosts favored by less than 7 points are 19-6 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) in their last 25 tries.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE

· Teams that won by 7-points or less in the divisional round are just 4-18 SU and 9-13 ATS (40.9%) in their last 22 road conference title game appearances, including Buffalo’s loss at Kansas City last season.
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS

· In intra-divisional conference championship games of this playoff round, the favorites are on a 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS (57.1%) surge.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE

· Home teams are 15-4 SU and 12-7 ATS (63.2%) in the last 19 AFC clashes, and 12-6 SU and 8-10 ATS (44.4%) in the last 18 NFC tilts.
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DENVER

· Since the 2004 season, home teams that were in the playoffs the prior year are 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS (58.3%) when playing teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior season
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER

· Wildcard teams, or those seeded #5-#7, have gone just 4-11 SU and 6-9 ATS (40%) dating back to 1996 in the conference title games, including just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS the last 14 seasons.
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS

· Matchups pitting a #1 seed versus a #2 seed in the conference championship games have trended Over the total at a 14-5-1 (73.7%) rate since 2002.
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NE-DEN

· #1 seeds are on a 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS (63.6%) surge in conference championship games when hosting any team worse than a #2 seed.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE

· There has been a stark difference when you consider conference breakdown lately, as the last 14 AFC games are 9-5 Under (64.3%) while NFC contests are on a 16-7-1 Over (69.6%) surge.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAR-SEA
UNDER – NE-DEN

· Breaking down the totals for this weekend’s games based upon ranges, totals less than 45 are on a 10-4-1 Over run, while totals in the 45-48 range are on a 10-3 Over surge.
Trend Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NE-DEN, LAR-SEA

· The last 22 times that a home team has won and covered the point spread in the conference title games, that game has also gone Over the total at a 16-6 (72.7%) rate. The last 14 times that a road team covered the point spread in conference title action, Under the total is 9-5 (64.3%). As I indicated last week, in essence, home teams cover with offense, road teams cover with defense.

Stats Generated in Conference Championship Playoff Games

· Hosts that score 30-points or more are on a 19-1 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) surge. Those that don’t reach the 30-point mark are 14-14 SU and 8-20 ATS (28.6%) since 2002.

· Visitors scoring 26-points or more are 13-6 SU and 15-4 ATS (78.9%) when they reach that mark since 1992.  When scoring less than 26 points, the record of the road teams has dropped dramatically to 10-37 SU and 17-29-1 ATS (37%) since 1992.

· Going back to ’03, teams that turn the ball over fewer times in a conference championship are on an impressive 33-5 ATS (86.9%) run.

· Home teams that won 14 or more games in the regular season are 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS (75%) in the last 12.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, SEATTLE

· When just one regular season win separated two conference championship playoff opponents, or the records were equal, the home teams are 16-4 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%) over the last 17 seasons.
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER

· The ability to run the football has been much overrated when it comes to conference championship success. Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 21-27 SU and 22-26 ATS (45.8%) since 2002. However, these teams are on a 14-6 ATS (70%) surge currently.
Trend Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LA RAMS

· Passing yardage has meant much more than rushing yardage in terms of conference championship playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going 30-16 SU and 27-19 ATS (61.3%) over the last 23 seasons in this playoff round, but were 0-2 last year.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LA RAMS

· Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are 18-13 SU and 19-12 ATS (61.3%) dating back to ‘10 in conference championship games, providing what would be a nice edge to handicappers.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, SEATTLE

· Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively are 28-18 SU and 29-17 ATS (63%) in the AFC and NFC title games since 2003 while those that held an edge in yards allowed per play share the same 28-18 SU and 29-17 ATS record.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, SEATTLE

Line range/matchup betting systems

– Home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 10-7 SU and 14-3 ATS run since 2016.
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER

– In the last 30 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone 18-12 SU but just 13-17 ATS (43.3%). This trend dates back to 2003.
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE

– Home teams that won 1 or 2 games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3-points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 16-21 SU and 15-22 ATS (40.5%) in their last 37 playoff tries.
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE

Team statistical betting systems

– Home teams gaining less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt have found the playoffs tough, as they are just 22-27 SU and 17-30-2 ATS (36.2%) since 2002.
System Match (FADE): DENVER

– Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 34-39 SU but 43-28-2 ATS (60.6%) since 2004.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LA RAMS

– Home teams allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt have been solid bets in the playoffs, going 24-7 SU and 20-11 ATS (64.5%) since 2002.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, SEATTLE

– Road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 7-25 SU and 10-22 ATS (31.3%) since 2004.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LA RAMS

First-time head coaches

– Regarding coaches, first-time playoff coaches have been wildly more successful in recent years than quarterbacks, and are currently on a 12-9 SU and 14-7 ATS (66.7%) run over the last seven seasons when not matched up against another rookie head coach.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

(101) NEW ENGLAND (16-3) at (102) DENVER (15-3)
* NEW ENGLAND is 37-7 SU and 33-11 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-4.5 at DEN)
* DENVER is 108-75 Under the total (59%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NE-DEN (o/u at 42.5)

(103) LA RAMS (14-5) at (104) SEATTLE (15-3)
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 40-66 SU and 40-64 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS (+2.5 at SEA)

Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to re-tread coach Mike Vrabel (New England).

Retread Coach Systems

– As favorites since 2015, re-tread coaches have gone 103-69 SU but just 69-93-11 ATS, for 42.6%!
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (-4.5 at DEN)

– Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 90-81 ATS (52.6%) record in their first seasons, including 40-28 ATS (58.8%) since mid-2022.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-4.5 at DEN)

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NFL teams that win by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have not been good bets in the follow-up contest, going 23-18 SU but 14-26-1 ATS (35%) when favored in their last 41 opportunities. 
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-2.5 vs LAR)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors 

The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS THIS WEEK

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same season rematch data over the last 14 seasons

Best NFL road rematch teams lately
LA Rams: 12-5 SU and 15-2 ATS in L17 on road
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+2.5 at SEA)

Rematch Betting Systems
Teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 23-9 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) in their last 33 revenge tries
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+2.5 at SEA)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Thursday at 4:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)

These are very good wrap-up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%). 
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW ENGLAND

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – LAR-SEA

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 74-62 ATS (54.4%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UNDER – LAR-SEA

DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): NE-DEN

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW ENGLAND -4.5 (+1.1)

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DENVER +4.5 (+0.9)

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SEATTLE -2.5 (+0.3)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LAR-SEA OVER 46.5 (+0.4)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NE-DEN UNDER 42.5 (-0.7)

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA RAMS +2.5 (+1.4)
2. DENVER +4.5 (+0.1)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NE-DEN UNDER 42.5 (-1.1)
2. LAR-SEA UNDER 46.5 (-0.2)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(101) NEW ENGLAND at (102) DENVER
* Underdogs are 5-2 SU and ATS in the Patriots-Broncos series since November 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+4.5 vs NE)

(103) LA RAMS at (104) SEATTLE
* Underdogs are 1-7 SU but 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the LAR-SEA divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+2.5 at SEA)
* Under the total is 10-5 in the set at Seattle as well since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-SEA (o/u at 46.5)

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