The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL Conference Championship games. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

*In their last 19 playoff games, rookie quarterbacks are just 7-12 SU and ATS (36.8%). Take away Joe Flacco’s 2009 run and the record drops to 5-11 SU and ATS. Also, rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in Conference Championship games.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6 at PHI) 

– Road teams that force a lot of turnovers (>=1.8 takeaways per game) have been consistently strong betting options in the playoffs for many years, going 50-33-2 ATS (60.2%) since 2002.
System Match (PLAY ATS): BUFFALO (+1.5 at KC) 

* PHILADELPHIA is on a 21-2 SU and 16-6 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. WAS) 

* Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent and were then favored in the playoff contest are just 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS (29.4%) since 2017.
System Match (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. WAS), KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs. BUF)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, BUFFALO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO 

The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward… 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a money line wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, an ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON ML, KANSAS CITY ML 

These next systems cover totals…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Match (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): WAS-PHI

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Match (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): WAS-PHI

Here are some of the best ways to take advantage of playoff-specific data qualified for this week’s matchups:

Line Range/Matchup Betting Systems

– In the last 27 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone 15-12 SU but just 10-17 ATS (37%). This trend dates back to 2003.
System Match (FADE ATS): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. WAS) 

– Home teams that won 1 or 2 games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3 points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 12-20 SU and 11-21 ATS (34.4%) in their last 32 playoff tries.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs. BUF)

Team Statistical Betting Systems

– Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 30-35 SU but 41-22-2 ATS (65.1%) since 2004.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+6 at PHI)

– Home teams allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt have been solid bets in the playoffs, going 21-7 SU and 17-11 ATS (60.7%) since 2002.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. WAS)

– Road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 4-21 SU and 9-16 ATS (36%) since 2004.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+6 at PHI), BUFFALO (+1.5 at KC) 

– Road teams that force a lot of turnovers (>=1.8 takeaways per game) have been consistently strong betting options in the playoffs for many years, going 50-33-2 ATS (60.2%) since 2002.
System Match (PLAY ATS): BUFFALO (+1.5 at KC)

– Road teams outscoring their home opponent offensively by 5.0+ PPG have really struggled in the NFL playoffs of late, 3-12 SU and 4-10-1 ATS since 2004.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (+1.5 at KC)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

(101) WASHINGTON at (102) PHILADELPHIA
* WASHINGTON is 14-11 SU and 19-5 ATS when coming off an upset win since 2018
* WASHINGTON is 26-12-1 ATS (68.4%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 16-31 ATS (34%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 23-12 Over the total in games after scoring 30+ points since 2015
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of WASHINGTON (+6 at PHI), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 47.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 20-8 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA is 20-4 Under the total in January games since 2011
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 21-2 SU and 16-6 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. WAS), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 47.5) 

(103) BUFFALO at (104) KANSAS CITY
* BUFFALO is 21-6 SU and 22-5 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
* BUFFALO is 40-28 ATS (58.8%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 34-20 Under the total on the road since 2018
Trends Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+1.5 at KC), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 47.5)

* KANSAS CITY is 74-39 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on 9-2 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 28-10 SU and 23-13 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Trends Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs. BUF), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 47.5)

NFL Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to retread coach Dan Quinn (Washington).

Retread Coach System

– Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2014, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 99-140-8 ATS (41.4%), while in weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 99-94-10 ATS (51.3%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (+6 at PHI)

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The lone starter this week is Jayden Daniels (Washington). 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Rookie quarterbacks are a risky bet in the postseason
In their last 19 playoff games, rookie quarterbacks are just 7-12 SU and ATS (36.8%). Take away Joe Flacco’s 2009 run and the record drops to 5-11 SU and ATS. Also, rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in Conference Championship games.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6 at PHI) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 124-118-1 ATS (51.2%) in home games but just 108-132-2 ATS (45%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 39-108 SU and 61-84-2 ATS (42.1%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6 at PHI)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Scoring more than 17 points is a key benchmark for outright and ATS success for rookie quarterbacks
Since 2009, rookie starting quarterbacks whose teams have scored 17 points or less in a game are a brutal 28-275 SU and 58-237-8 ATS (19.7%), as opposed to 248-159 SU and 286-109-11 ATS (72.4%) when topping that point benchmark.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional and non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QB’s are just 49-107 SU and 66-85-5 ATS (43.7%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6 at PHI) 

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams. 

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Buffalo 17-6 SU and 14-9 ATS primetime run
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+1.5 at KC)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems were part of an article released in week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAKS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons 

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
Philadelphia: just 9-12 SU and 6-14-1 ATS in the last 21 rematch games
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. WAS) 

Rematch Betting Systems
Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent are on a 9-9 SU and 7-11 ATS (38.9%) skid in the playoffs when hosting that same opponent.
System Match (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. WAS), KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs. BUF)

Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent and were then favored in the playoff contest are just 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS (29.4%) since 2017.
System Match (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. WAS), KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs. BUF)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +6 (+1.3)
2. BUFFALO +1.5 (+0.9) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: WASHINGTON +6 (+1.8) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: KANSAS CITY -1.5 (+1.0) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BUF-KC OVER 47.5 (+0.3) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: WAS-PHI UNDER 47.5 (-0.6) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: WASHINGTON +6 (+0.7)

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: KANSAS CITY -1.5 (+4.1) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BUF-KC UNDER 47.5 (-2.7)
2. WAS-PHI UNDER 47.5 (-0.8)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(101) WASHINGTON at (102) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the WAS-PHI divisional series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(103) BUFFALO at (104) KANSAS CITY
* BUFFALO is 4-2 SU and ATS in the last six games versus Kansas City
Trend Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS
* KANSAS CITY is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three playoff games versus Buffalo
Trend Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY ATS

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