The 2026 NFL Regular Season kicks off tonight with a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime showdown using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:20 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 44.5)
The Patriots finished 14-3 last season and oddsmakers expect some regression this year as their win total sits at 10.5 with the under juiced to -140 at DraftKings. Similarly, the Seahawks also went 14-3 last season and oddsmakers have set their win total for this year at 10.5 with the over juiced up slightly -115.
This line opened with Seattle listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public is laying the points with the Seahawks at home, remembering how dominant Seattle looked against New England in the Super Bowl when they won 29-13 and easily covered as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite.
However, despite receiving 62% of spread bets at DraftKings at 70% of spread bets at Circa we’ve seen Seattle fall from -4.5 to -3.5. In addition, oddsmakers are juicing up the New England side (+3.5 at -120) with a few other books inching down to the key number of 3.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing Seattle to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with the Patriots plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of New England.
In addition to the wiseguy line move, the Patriots offer heightened “bet against the public” value as New England is only receiving 38% of spread bets at DraftKings and 30% of spread bets at Circa in a heavily bet, standalone primetime game on NBC.
Week 1 dogs, like the Patriots here, are 86-70 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2016.
Week 1 road dogs have gone 56-41 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2016. If the total is a “low” 45 or less, as is the case tonight, Week 1 road dogs improve to 31-20 ATS (61%) with a 16% ROI since 2016.
Mike Vrabel has gone 33-24 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI as a dog in his career.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down from 45.5 to 44.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 52% of bets and 58% of dollars. However, Circa is showing 55% of bets and 63% of dollars on the over.
Primetime unders have gone 280-230 (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2016. If the total falls at least a half point, primetime unders improve to 167-124 (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2016.
The forecast looks ideal at Lumen Field, with temperatures in the mid 70s, mild 4 MPH winds and clear skies with zero expected precipitation.
