Week 5 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 5. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Favorites are on a 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS run in the last 16 of the 49ers-Seahawks rivalry at Seattle
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-2.5 vs SF)
* Teams averaging less than 14 PPG at any time are on 72-63 SU and 86-43-6 ATS (66.7%) run, assuming they are not bigger than 8-point underdogs since 2015 (including 35-10-2 ATS (77.8%) in divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+6.5 vs CIN), TENNESSEE (+7.5 vs HOU)
* NFL teams that won their last game but got outgained by 100 yards or more are bad as non-conference favorites in the next contest, going 4-8 SU and 0-11-1 ATS (0%) in their last 12 tries.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-7 vs PHI)
* CINCINNATI is on an incredible 19-2 SU and 18-3 ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-6.5 at MIA)
* NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 18-50 SU and 19-45-4 ATS (29.7%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at NYJ)
* Defensively dominant road teams allowing less than 15 PPG have gone just 49-66-1 SU and 42-74 ATS (36.2%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at NO)
* In Monday Night Football games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 32-32 SU but 21-41-2 ATS (33.9%) in the last 64.
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-3 vs BUF)
* DETROIT is on a 17-2 SU and 15-3-1 ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 at ARI)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: TENNESSEE +7.5 vs HOU (projections have line at TEN +1.8)
NFL Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(307) TAMPA BAY (0-4) at (308) DALLAS (2-2)
* TAMPA BAY is 31-45 ATS (40.8%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at DAL)
* DALLAS is 31-13 SU and 27-17 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS is 23-18 SU but 15-25 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2010
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DALLAS (-8.5 vs TB)
* TAMPA BAY is on 29-11 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 14-10 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 9-0 Over the total with his team playing as home favorites of more than 7 points since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): TB-DAL (o/u at 47.5)
(451) PHILADELPHIA (2-2) vs (452) JACKSONVILLE (3-1)
* PHILADELPHIA is 15-5 SU and 16-4 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2020
* PHILADELPHIA is 17-31 ATS (35.4%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE PHILADELPHIA (+7 vs JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE is 11-51 SU and 17-44 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS with his team coming off an upset win since 2022
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of JACKSONVILLE (-7 vs PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 15-5 Under the total in the last 20 games when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-JAX (o/u at 42.5)
(453) INDIANAPOLIS (2-2) at (454) PITTSBURGH (2-2)
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 21-6 SU and ATS with his team coming off a divisional loss since 2010
* PITTSBURGH is 28-35 ATS (44.4%) as a favorite since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs IND)
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 35-17 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
* PITTSBURGH is 112-81 Under the total (58%) since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-PIT (o/u at 44.5)
(455) MINNESOTA (4-0) at (456) NEW ORLEANS (1-3)
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 89-62 SU and 94-56-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA’s Kyler Murray is just 8-11 SU and 6-13 ATS in his last 19 starts as a favorite
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-1.5 at NO)
* NEW ORLEANS is 27-49 ATS (35.5%) at home since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 vs MIN)
* MINNESOTA’s Kyler Murray is 12-3 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-NO (o/u at 42.5)
(457) CLEVELAND (3-1) at (458) NY JETS (1-3)
* NY JETS are 12-28 ATS (30%) as a favorite since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NY JETS (-1.5 vs CLE)
(459) CINCINNATI (2-2) at (460) MIAMI (0-4)
* CINCINNATI is on an incredible 19-2 SU and 18-3 ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 60-70 SU but 78-49 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI is 76-64 SU and 84-56 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 22-12 SU and 24-10 ATS (70.6%) vs. non-divisional AFC foes. The average line was -0.9. Team average PF: 26.4
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-6.5 at MIA)
* MIAMI is 64-36 ATS (64%) at home since 2014
* MIAMI is 57-48 ATS (54.3%) as an underdog since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+6.5 vs CIN)
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 15-9 Under the total versus non-divisional AFC foes since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-MIA (o/u at 42.5)
(461) LAS VEGAS (3-1) at (462) NEW ENGLAND (2-2)
* LAS VEGAS is 41-56 ATS (42.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 41-55 ATS (42.7%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 at NE)
(463) NY GIANTS (3-1) at (464) WASHINGTON (1-3)
* NY GIANTS’ John Harbaugh is 16-17 SU but 24-9 ATS as an underdog since 2018
* WASHINGTON is 26-41 ATS (38.8%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 21-35 ATS (37.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 1-12 SU and ATS when coming off a non-conference defeat since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+3.5 at WAS)
* NY GIANTS are 63-41 Under the total (60.6%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Jameis Winston is on 13-3 Over the total surge vs. poor teams with point differentials of -4.5 PPG or less
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in NYG-WAS (o/u at 42.5)
(465) HOUSTON (0-4) at (466) TENNESSEE (0-4)
* TENNESSEE is on 10-46 SU and 16-39-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trend Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+7.5 vs HOU)
(467) DENVER (2-2) at (468) LA CHARGERS (0-4)
* DENVER is 16-14 SU and 24-6 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019
* DENVER’s Sean Payton is 19-10 SU and 22-6 ATS in the last 29 games when coming off an outright road loss
* DENVER is 29-42 ATS (40.8%) as a favorite since 2017
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of DENVER (-3.5 at LAC)
* LA CHARGERS are 41-55-1 ATS (42.7%) at home since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+3.5 vs DEN)
* DENVER is 112-76 Under the total (59.6%) since 2015
* LA CHARGERS are on a 35-16 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on a 21-8 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-LAC (o/u at 42.5)
(469) SAN FRANCISCO (4-0) at (470) SEATTLE (3-1)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is on 8-8 SU but 3-13 ATS skid when coming off a home win
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5 at SEA)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 30-18 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 49-32 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
* SEATTLE is 22-11 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2011
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 30-18 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in SF-SEA (o/u at 45.5)
(471) DETROIT (2-2) at (472) ARIZONA (1-3)
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 17-2 SU and 15-3-1 ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 at ARI)
* ARIZONA is 28-38 ATS (42.4%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 37-28 ATS (56.9%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+5.5 vs DET)
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is 16-12 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-ARI (o/u at 54.5)
(473) CHICAGO (3-1) at (474) GREEN BAY (2-2)
* CHICAGO is 12-29 SU and 14-27 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO is 35-49 ATS (41.7%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* GREEN BAY is 38-24 ATS (61.3%) at home since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 25-18-1 ATS (58.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 24-14-1 ATS (63.2%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+2.5 vs CHI)
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on a 19-9 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-GB (o/u at 45.5)
(475) BALTIMORE (3-1) at (476) ATLANTA (2-2)
* BALTIMORE is 14-16 SU but 22-8 ATS as an underdog since 2018
* BALTIMORE is 49-27-1 ATS (64.5%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* ATLANTA is 23-42 ATS (35.4%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 18-37 ATS (32.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* ATLANTA is 61-51 SU but 40-72 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012
* ATLANTA’s Kevin Stefanski is on a 9-22 SU and 8-21 ATS slide when coming off an outright win
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+3.5 at ATL)
* ATLANTA’s Kevin Stefanski is 24-17 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
* ATLANTA is 22-7 Under the total on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in BAL-ATL (o/u at 43.5)
(477) BUFFALO (3-1) at (478) LA RAMS (2-2)
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 40-26 Under the total on the road since 2018
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 24-14 Under the total with his team coming off an outright loss since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-LAR (o/u at 54.5)
* BUFFALO is 36-29 ATS (55.4%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is 12-7 SU but 7-11 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 42-67 SU and 41-66 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trends Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-3 vs BUF)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
HUGE UPSETS
Teams coming off an outright win as a large underdog (+7 or more) and are favored in their next game have had totals go UNDER at a 20-9 (69%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-NE (o/u at 45.5)
BIG TIME PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 26-16 SU but 13-29 ATS (31%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs BAL)
Teams coming off a double-digit victory over a divisional rival have followed up that big win with a 32-11 SU and 27-14-2 ATS (65.9%) record as a non-conference HOME FAVORITE in the next contest since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs BAL)
WINNING BUT OUTGAINED IN YARDS
NFL teams that won their last game but got outgained by 100 yards or more are bad as non-conference favorites in the next contest, going 4-8 SU and 0-11-1 ATS (0%) in their last 12 tries.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-7 vs PHI)
NFL Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for NFL teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
NFL Team Strength Betting System #3:
In games between two teams with 35% or less winning percentages, and totals <= 41, underdogs are 35-30 SU and 44-20-1 ATS (68.8%) since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+7.5 vs HOU)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #5:
Having a minimum four games under their belt for the season, favorites sporting a win percentage that is at least 25% worse than their opponent have a 32-39-1 SU and 24-46-2 ATS (34.3%) record since the start of the 2015 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS (-1.5 vs CLE), NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs LVR), WASHINGTON (-3.5 vs NYG), SEATTLE (-2.5 vs SF), ATLANTA (-3.5 vs BAL), LA RAMS (-3 vs BUF)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #6:
Teams averaging less than 14 PPG at any time are on a 72-63 SU and 86-43-6 ATS (66.7%) run, assuming they are not bigger than 8-point underdogs since 2015. (Also 82-53 Over the total)- Division: 35-10-2 ATS (77.8%)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+6.5 vs CIN), TENNESSEE (+7.5 vs HOU)
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CIN-MIA (o/u at 42.5), HOU-TEN (o/u at 37.5)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #7:
Road/neutral teams scoring more than 31 PPG are just 36-48 SU and 30-53 ATS (36.1%) since 2020.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (+3 at LAR)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #8:
Defensively dominant road teams allowing less than 15 PPG have gone just 49-66-1 SU and 42-74 ATS (36.2%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at NO)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #9:
A great offense (>=27 PPG) is a solid bet against a great defense (<=19 PPG) when that good offense is the underdog, 76-56 ATS (57.6%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5 at SEA)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #11:
In games matching poor offenses (<=19 PPG) against great defenses (<=19 PPG), the poor offensive teams actually fare well when the point spread suggests they should, as they are 55-32 SU and 52-31-4 ATS (62.7%) when either favored or playing as underdogs of +3 or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+2.5 vs CHI)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #12:
Teams that struggle to run the ball and are averaging <60 RYPG are 17-34 SU and 15-36 ATS (29.4%) at home since 2015.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (+2.5 vs CHI)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #13:
Road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 151-101 SU and 143-105-4 ATS (57.7%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5 at SEA), BALTIMORE (+3.5 at ATL), BUFFALO (+3 at LAR)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #14:
Teams playing with a point differential of 7 points or worse on the season as home favorites are 59-60 SU and 45-71-3 ATS (38.8%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-3.5 vs NYG), NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs LVR), NY JETS (-1.5 vs CLE), PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs IND)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #15:
Teams playing as underdogs despite a +10 PPG point differential have gone just 30-51 SU and 35-46 ATS (43.2%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5 at SEA)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #16:
Teams with +10 PPG point differentials are 73-38 SU but 43-65-3 ATS (39.8%) versus unfamiliar non-conference opponents in their last 121 tries.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-7 vs PHI)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #17:
Oddsmakers set a pretty good path for whether or not real bad teams have a chance to compete, as those with -10 PPG differentials are 115-121 SU but 141-91-4 ATS (60.8%) so long as they are not a TD underdog or bigger (+7 or more) in the last 236 games.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+6.5 vs CIN)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 32-25 SU but 21-34-2 ATS (38.2%) in last 57. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 49-31 SU and 46-31-3 ATS (59.7%).
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-8.5 vs TB)
NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 34-4 SU and 22-14-2 ATS (61.1%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-8.5 vs TB)
There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 25-24 SU and 31-17-1 ATS (64.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at DAL)
TNF Team Trend
Tampa Bay 2-11 ATS since 2013
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at DAL)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 62-45-2 ATS (57.9%) in their last 109.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs BAL)
In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 29-27 SU but 23-31-2 ATS (42.6%) in the last 56. Under the total is also 32-16 (66.7%) in the L48.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs BAL)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-ATL (o/u at 43.5)
Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 18-27-1 SU and 20-25-1 ATS (44.4%) in their last 46, but those coming off a win are on a current 34-11 SU and 26-19 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs BAL)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 32-32 SU but 21-41-2 ATS (33.9%) in the last 64.
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-3 vs BUF)
Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 51-45 SU but just 38-56-2 ATS (40.4%) in the last 96 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (+3 at LAR)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Baltimore 29-17 SU and 26-19-1 ATS L46
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+3.5 at ATL)
Buffalo 20-10 SU primetime run
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO ML (+136 at LAR)
Dallas 17-12 ATS in the last 29
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-8.5 vs TB)
Bad Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Tampa Bay 11-23 SU and 9-25 ATS in the last 34
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at DAL)
Under the total Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Atlanta 17-6 to the Under in the last 23
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-ATL (o/u at 43.5)
LA Rams 19-10 Under surge
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-LAR (o/u at 54.5)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 18-50 SU and 19-45-4 ATS (29.7%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at NYJ)
NFL Streaks Betting System #9: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 22-68 SU but 53-35-2 ATS (60.2%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at DAL)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 68-45 SU BUT 44-65-4 ATS (40.4%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-7.5 at TEN)
NFL Streaks Betting System #18: Low-scoring (< 22 PPG) NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU wins have been terrible as small underdogs (+3 or less) in the next game, going 13-45-1 SU and 14-42-3 ATS (25%) since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at NYJ)
*WATCH FOR NY GIANTS at WAS (+3.5 CURRENTLY)*
Pre-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Pre-bye week system #3
Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 80-6-1 SU and 58-27-2 ATS since 2002, 68.2%, +28.3 Units, 33.3% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CINCINNATI at MIA (-6.5 CURRENTLY)
Pre-bye week system #5
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 40-24-3 ATS since 2015, 62.5%, +13.6 Units, 21.3% ROI, Grade 64)
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+6.5 vs CIN)
* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
| Cincinnati Bengals Pre-Bye week game: 10/11 at MIAMI |
| Cincinnati has gone 7-3 SU and ATS in its last 10 pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-6.5 at MIA) |
| The Bengals are on a 5-2 Over the total surge in pre-bye week road games Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-MIA (o/u at 42.5) |
| Detroit Lions Pre-Bye week game: 10/11 at ARIZONA |
| The Lions have been a pretty bad pre-bye week road team since 1993, 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS, including a 29-0 loss at New England last time out in 2022 Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-5.5 at ARI) |
| Miami Dolphins Pre-Bye week game: 10/11 vs. CINCINNATI |
| Miami is 7-1 Under the total in its last eight pre-bye week gamesTrend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-MIA (o/u at 42.5) |
| Miami has gone 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six pre-bye week games overall, allowing just 11.7 PPG Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+6.5 vs CIN) |
| Minnesota Vikings Pre-Bye week game: 10/11 at NEW ORLEANS |
| Minnesota is on a 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS surge in pre-bye week road/neutral games |
| The Vikings are on a 14-3 SU and ATS run in pre-bye week games overall Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at NO) |
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(307) TAMPA BAY at (308) DALLAS
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Bucs-Cowboys set at Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-DAL (o/u at 47.5)
(451) PHILADELPHIA at (452) JACKSONVILLE
* Favorites are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five of the Eagles-Jaguars non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (-7 vs PHI)
(453) INDIANAPOLIS at (454) PITTSBURGH
* Home teams are 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 matchups between IND and PIT
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs IND)
(455) MINNESOTA at (456) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total has converted in three straight of the MIN-NO series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-NO (o/u at 42.5)
(457) CLEVELAND at (458) NY JETS
* NY JETS are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five instances hosting Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): NY JETS (-1.5 vs CLE)
(459) CINCINNATI at (460) MIAMI
* Favorites are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the Bengals-Dolphins set
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-6.5 at MIA)
(461) LAS VEGAS at (462) NEW ENGLAND
* LAS VEGAS has won and covered the last three matchups with New England
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 at NE)
(463) NY GIANTS at (464) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON has won and covered all four games with divisional foe NYG the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-3.5 vs NYG)
(465) HOUSTON at (466) TENNESSEE
* Underdogs are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Texans-Titans AFC South series at Nissan Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+7.5 vs HOU)
(467) DENVER at (468) LA CHARGERS
* Favorites have won and covered the last five games between Denver and LA Chargers
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3.5 at LAC)
(469) SAN FRANCISCO at (470) SEATTLE
* Favorites are on a 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS run in the last 16 of the 49ers-Seahawks rivalry at Seattle
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-2.5 vs SF)
(471) DETROIT at (472) ARIZONA
* DETROIT is 5-0-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Arizona
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 at ARI)
(473) CHICAGO at (474) GREEN BAY
* Home teams are on a 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS run in the Bears-Packers NFC North rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+2.5 vs CHI)
(475) BALTIMORE at (476) ATLANTA
* BALTIMORE is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS versus non-conference foe Atlanta since 1999
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+3.5 at ATL)
(477) BUFFALO at (478) LA RAMS
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the Bills-Rams set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BUF-LAR (o/u at 54.5)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2026, detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Mike LaFleur (Arizona), Jesse Minter (Baltimore), Joe Brady (Buffalo), Todd Monken (Cleveland), Klint Kubiak (Las Vegas), and Jeff Hafley (Miami) as well as re-tread coaches Kevin Stefanski (Atlanta), John Harbaugh (NY Giants), Mike McCarthy (Pittsburgh), and Robert Saleh (Tennessee).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: CIN-MIA(+6.5), LVR(+3.5)-NE, CLE(+1.5)-NYJ, DET-ARI(+5.5), BAL(+3.5)-ATL, BUF(+3)-LAR)
– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 172-191-10 ATS (47.4%). Road/Neutral games – 197-177-7 ATS (52.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, ARIZONA
– Ironically, it’s in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+1 to +3 small underdog lines) where rookie head coaches are able to hold their own best against the point spread. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 74-80-2 SU and 86-68-2 ATS (55.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, BUFFALO
– Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2016: Divisional games 129-138-4 ATS (48.3%), Non-Conference games 105-93-8 ATS (53%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, BUFFALO
– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together and keeping the team galvanized after losses. Rookie head coaches have been better at the latter. When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 102-113-2 ATS (47.4%) since December 2020. After wins, they’ve done reasonably worse in that same time frame, 74-87-6 ATS (46%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: IND-PIT(-2.5), HOU-TEN(+7.5), NYG(+3.5)-WAS, BAL-ATL(-3.5))
– Unlike the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches more proficient at covering point spreads at home since 2020. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 65-54 ATS (54.6%). Road/Neutral games – 60-65 ATS (48%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE, ATLANTA
– As favorites since 2015, retread coaches have gone 107-71 SU but just 71-96-11 ATS, for 42.5%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, ATLANTA
– In non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 40-57 ATS (41.2%) over the last decade, including 22-37 ATS (37.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA
– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons quite successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2016, in games #1-#8 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 71-107 ATS (39.9%), while in weeks #9 and later, they’ve gone 97-86 ATS (53%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, ATLANTA
– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a respectable 92-84 ATS (52.3%) record in their first seasons, including 42-33 ATS (56%) since mid-2022. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 149-183 ATS (44.9%) in that same time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The lone starter this week is Jalon Daniels (Tampa Bay).
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are running hot the L4 years
In fact, the 16 rookie QBs over the last four seasons have put together a collective record of 82-107 SU (43.6%) and 103-79-7 ATS (56.6%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at DAL)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road
Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 149-139 ATS (51.8%) in home games but just 136-152 ATS (47.2%) in road/neutral games.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at DAL)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 26 games, going 26-136 SU and 66-92-4 ATS (41.8%).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at DAL)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been solid for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 60-76 SU but 77-58 ATS (57%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at DAL)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 22-24 SU but 29-15-2 ATS (65.9%) in their last 46 such tries.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at DAL)
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Kirk Cousins (Las Vegas), Geno Smith (NY Jets), and Kyler Murray (Minnesota).
(Games this week: LVR(+3.5)-NE, CLE-NYJ(-1.5), MIN(-1.5)-NO)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of October
I just showed how these veteran QB’s in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, these QB’s have rebounded nicely in October, going 47-44 SU and 47-41-3 ATS (53.4%) since 2009.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LAS VEGAS, NY JETS, MINNESOTA
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks are trending extremely negatively on the road
The results since 2021 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams on the road have been brutal, as they are just 31-56 SU and 35-51-1 ATS (40.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LAS VEGAS, MINNESOTA
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 93-80 SU and 95-76-2 ATS (55.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LAS VEGAS, NY JETS, MINNESOTA
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QB’s have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
In their last 73 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 36-37 SU and 31-41-1 ATS (43.1%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
Since 2021, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 12-17-1 SU and 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%).
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 41-35 SU and 51-25 ATS (67.1%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer. The last 28 such games are 19-9 Under the total (67.9%) as well.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-NE (o/u at 45.5)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2026 VSiN NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation of how DK bettors performed in the 2025 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-138 ATS (50.5%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 133-145 ATS (47.8%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-135 (51.4%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 139-142 (49.5%)
The most interesting observation from last year’s bettors’ performances in the categories is that the majority handle groups were plus-.500, while the majority number of bets groups were sub-.500. Many pro bettors believe that handle represents a slightly sharper opinion while number of bets measures the public masses and thus is perhaps less sharp.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 71-51 ATS (58.2%) record for +14.9 units and an ROI of +12.2%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY GIANTS, BALTIMORE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 219-264 ATS (45.3%) for -71.4 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, CHICAGO, LA CHARGERS, SEATTLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 218-268 ATS (44.9%) for -76.8 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, NY GIANTS, CHICAGO, DENVER, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games since the start of the 2023 season, DK majority handle groups have been quite sharp, going 131-109 ATS (54.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE, BALTIMORE, LA RAMS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5-point favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 142-116 ATS (55%) record for +14.4 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, NEW ENGLAND, CLEVELAND, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, DETROIT
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: What is the definition of a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Well, over the last three years when a “super-majority” handle of 77% or higher got behind a NFL favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 14-27 ATS (34.1%) for -15.7 units and an ROI of -38.3%.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 139-160 ATS (46.5%) and 139-157 ATS (47%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, BALTIMORE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: Number of bets majority groups have been very sharp judging games when there is an exact one-game win difference between two teams in a matchup. The teams they have gotten behind boast an amazing 150-115 ATS (56.6%) record for +23.5 units over the last three seasons. The highlight of the one-win separation games has been when bettors back the road team, as these majority groups have gone 84-59 ATS for 58.7% and +19.1 units of profit.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NEW ENGLAND, CHICAGO, DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE, BUFFALO
Alternatively, when there is a difference of two or more wins in the standings, these majority number of bets groups have struggled to a 186-206 ATS (47.4%) mark.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, NY GIANTS, DENVER
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years, it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last three years, going 170-130 ATS (56.7%)!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TB-DAL, DET-ARI, BUF-LAR
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last three seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 66-57 ATS (53.7%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-NO
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units (11-11 for -1.1 units in 2026). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): TB-DAL, CLE-NYJ, IND-PIT, DET-ARI, BAL-ATL, BUF-LAR
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost regularly, going just 113-128 (46.9%) for -27.8 units over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): TB-DAL, IND-PIT, HOU-TEN, CHI-GB, BAL-ATL
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TENNESSEE +7.5 (+5.7)
2. GREEN BAY +2.5 (+3.5)
3. NY GIANTS +3.5 (+2.7)
4. SAN FRANCISCO +2.5 (+1.3)
5(tie). MIAMI +6.5 (+0.9)
ARIZONA +5.5 (+0.9)
This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS -1.5 (+1.5)
2. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+1.1)
3(tie). DALLAS -8.5 (+0.9)
ATLANTA -3.5 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TENNESSEE +7.5 (+6.2)
2. PHILADELPHIA +7 (+4.4)
3. LAS VEGAS +3.5 (+2.4)
4. ARIZONA +5.5 (+2.0)
5. INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -8.5 (+4.1)
2. CINCINNATI -6.5 (+3.8)
3. NY JETS -1.5 (+2.2)
4. ATLANTA -3.5 (+1.6)
5. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYG-WAS OVER 42.5 (+2.3)
2. CLE-NYJ OVER 39.5 (+2.1)
3(tie). TB-DAL OVER 47.5 (+1.9)
MIN-NO OVER 42.5 (+1.9)
5(tie). IND-PIT OVER 44.5 (+1.6)
CIN-MIA OVER 42.5 (+1.6)
This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUF-LAR UNDER 54.5 (-2.0)
2. CHI-GB UNDER 45.5 (-1.7)
3. DET-ARI UNDER 54.5 (-0.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY +2.5 (+4.9)
2. TENNESSEE +7.5 (+3.1)
3. PHILADELPHIA +7 (+2.6)
4(tie). ARIZONA +8.5 (+1.9)
BUFFALO +3 (+1.9)
This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS -1.5 (+2.5)
2. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SF-SEA OVER 45.5 (+1.9)
2. CLE-NYJ OVER 39.5 (+1.5)
3. BAL-ATL OVER 43.5 (+1.2)
4. CIN-MIA OVER 42.5 (+1.1)
5. IND-PIT OVER 44.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-GB UNDER 45.5 (-2.4)
2. BUF-LAR UNDER 54.5 (-1.3)
3. DEN-LAC UNDER 42.5 (-1.2)
4. TB-DAL UNDER 47.5 (-0.7)
5. HOU-TEN UNDER 37.5 (-0.6)
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