NFL Player Props
Weather will have an impact in the NFL in Week 5, as winds and precipitation could cut the playbook down a little bit. Some astute bettors have already scooped up the value and some astute bookmakers have made their adjustments as well, but there may still be some good numbers out there to take advantage of in terms of passing, receiving, and kicking props.
Injuries will also have an impact, as they always do, in terms of creating chances for other players to be involved. There is a lot of context to work into the handicaps this weekend, but the size of the prop catalog is going to have some diamonds in the rough if you are willing to dig far enough.
I’ve got my First Touchdown Scorer picks here and now here’s a look at my favorite Week 5 NFL Player Props.
We also have some awesome tools here at VSiN to help with your prop betting picks, including our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections, exclusively available to our Pro Subscribers. Whether you use them as confirmation of a play that you already like or scan through to find the biggest edges, it is just another weapon in your arsenal against the sportsbooks while trying to build up that bankroll.
As always, shop around for these Week 5 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 10:00 a.m. PT on Friday, October 9 and are from DraftKings.
Here are my favorite Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets:
Daniel Jones (IND) Under 209.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Jones has gone Over this number twice and Under this number twice through four games, though he had exactly 210 yards in the overtime loss to Chiefs, so he would have gone Under without the extra period. It was a 48-yard pass to Laquon Treadwell that sent him Over the total.
Here, we’ve got rain and wind in the forecast for what is liable to be an ugly game in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are a top-10 defense in average depth of target and should be able to keep a lot of plays in front of them and bottled up here. So far, Jones only has 4.6 completed air yards per completion, which is down from 6.7 last season. He’s also been hurt by some drops. I also think we’ll start seeing Jones run a little bit more as he feels more and more confident coming back from last season’s injury. This might be the game to do it given the conditions.
Our OptaAI projections have Jones down for 213.22 passing yards.
Greg Dulcich (MIA) Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
There should be a lot of things working in Dulcich’s favor here. First, the Bengals are about a TD favorite, so the game state should be one in which the Dolphins are expected to throw the football. So far, the Bengals are one of two teams to allow over 400 receiving yards to tight ends. The Lions are the other and Cincinnati’s 409 yards allowed are the most in the league. Their 31 receptions allowed are the third-most.
Dulcich has only gone Over this number once, as he was held to zero catches last week and only had 35 yards over the first two weeks combined. He only had 20 snaps last week, but had 51, 36, and 43 the three previous weeks. I have to think that he gets more run this week, especially without Brian Flores’ all-out-blitzing defense to worry about.
A huge edge from our OptaAI projections, which have Dulcich with 42.32 receving yards.
Aaron Jones (MIN) Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-120)
Jones is the premier back in Minnesota now with Jordan Mason out and he’s gotten a lot of touches as a result. Jones has 72 carries already and has had 17+ in each of the last three games, while playing 80.8%, 79.7%, and 73.1% of the snaps. His longest rushes by game this season have been 8, 20, 14, and 19, so he’s 2-for-4 on this one.
However, he’s facing a Saints defense that ranks 30th in the NFL with 5.1 yards per carry allowed. Pro-Football-Reference has them down for 28 missed tackles on the season. This should be a solid matchup for him.
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