The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL preseason games of Week 3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFLPS board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Road underdogs of 2.5 points or less have gone 83-43 ATS in preseason games since 2015, good for 65.9%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 at NYJ), ATLANTA (+2.5 at DAL), CHICAGO (+1.5 at KC), HOUSTON (+1.5 at DET), SEATTLE (+1.5 at GB) 

* Teams that won their first two games and are playing at home with a total of 37.5 or higher have seen the total go Under at a 26-10-2 rate (72.2%) since 2010
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NE-NYG (o/u at 37.5), LAR-CLE (o/u at 39.5), BUF-TB (o/u at 37.5) 

-Outright winners are on an incredible 38-1-1 ATS run in DENVER preseason games
– DENVER is 15-4 SU and 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 as a preseason favorite
Trends Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 at NO)

* Since 2010, preseason favorites of -7.5 points or more have gone 10-7 SU but 5-12 ATS (29.4%)
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs LAR)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

The following systems are from the article NFL Preseason Betting Splits Systems for 2025 posted on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 1:30 PM ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #1: Looking back at the ’23-24 NFL preseasons, majority handle bettors on sides have gone just 37-55 ATS (40.2%). Until proven otherwise, any August majority handle in the NFL should be faded.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #2: For the ’23-24 NFL preseasons, majority bets groups on sides were just 41-56 ATS (42.3%). This is another majority group that should be faded until further notice.
Systems Match: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLES AND BETS 

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #3: Looking back at the ’23-24 NFL preseasons, majority handle bettors on totals were just 43-51 ATS (45.7%). While not as bad as the side percentages, still a continued fade opportunity in 2025.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OVER – PIT-CAR, NE-NYG, ATL-DAL, CHI-KC, BAL-WAS, LAR-CLE, HOU-DET, DEN-NO, IND-CIN, SEA-GB, BUF-TB, LAC-SF, LVR-ARI
UNDER – MIN-TEN, JAX-MIA

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority handle backed either team in a ’23-24 preseason game that had a point spread with one team favored by 3 points or higher, that majority group went just 23-40 ATS (36.5%). This is a noticeable drop off from the 40.2% overall win rate in system #1, so worth further consideration.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY GIANTS, TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND, DENVER, INDIANAPOLIS, MIAMI 

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of number of bets backed a ’23-24 NFL preseason team in a game with a point spread of 2.5 points or lower, that group was just 10-21 ATS (32%). This is over 10% worse than the overall bets majority win rate. Look to fade the majority number of bettors in expected tight games this month.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS, CHICAGO, BALTIMORE, DETROIT, SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY, LA CHARGERS, LAS VEGAS 

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was 60% or greater on any team in the ’23-24 NFL preseasons, that group went 22-34 ATS (39.3%). These bigger majorities also lost more than the overall groups.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, NEW ENGLAND, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO, BALTIMORE, LA RAMS, DETROIT, DENVER, CINCINNATI, SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY, LA CHARGERS, LAS VEGAS 

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #7: Over the last two preseasons, in games between conference opponents, majority handle and number of bets bettors have gone just 9-16 ATS (36%) when backing one of the teams. Most preseason games are of the non-conference variety, this is another opportunity to fade majorities at a higher success rate.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, MIAMI 

Were there any systems in the ’23-24 NFL preseasons in which majorities actually won? YES! Here are those spots:

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the handle backed either team in a 2024 preseason game that saw a line move of 3 points or more from open to close, that group was 12-6 ATS (66.7%), a very strong return. It’s rare for bettors to trust the oddsmakers, in when they did last year, they won.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY GIANTS, CLEVELAND, MIAMI 

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #10: In the ’23-24 NFL preseasons, majority handle and number of bets bettors at DraftKings were 13-10 (56.5%) on totals in conference games. Not spectacular, but a profitable follow chance.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATL-DAL, IND-CIN, SEA-GB

NFL Preseason Systematic Betting Concepts

The following systems were from the article NFL Preseason Betting Concepts to consider for 2025 posted on Tuesday, August 5th, 2025 

1.  Line ranges have proven very telling
Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, there have been 17 teams that have been favored by more than 7 points. Ten of these heavy favorites won their games outright, however, they were 5-12 ATS (29.4%). At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 157-135-4 ATS for 53.8% (in 2025, this angle is 5-9 ATS). Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 187-124 ATS, good for 60.1%!
System Matches:
Favorite -7.5 or higher (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND
Favorites -3.5 to -7 (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY GIANTS, DENVER
Underdogs +1 to +3 (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, HOUSTON, INDIANAPOLIS, SEATTLE, JACKSONVILLE, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO, ARIZONA

2.    Home field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
In looking at the home/road results of the last 13 NFL preseasons, there have been only three years where home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS. If you’re simply guessing on these games, or wagering them for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their “home field advantage” tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 408-370 ATS edge, good for 52.4%, and essentially enough to make a profit without any other handicapping considered. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 83-43 ATS as such since 2015, good for 65.9%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 at NYJ), ATLANTA (+2.5 at DAL), CHICAGO (+1.5 at KC), HOUSTON (+1.5 at DET), SEATTLE (+1.5 at GB) 

3.   “37” is a magic number for totals
Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proven to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone Over at a rate of 57.2% (312-233), including 9-4 to the Over so far in 2025. Those closing totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 56.4% clip (561-433).
System Matches:
Totals < 37 (PLAY OVER): PIT-CAR, PHI-NYJ, ATL-DAL, BAL-WAS, HOU-DET, IND-CIN, LAC-SF
Totals >=37 (PLAY UNDER): NE-NYG, MIN-TEN, CHI-KC, LAR-CLE, DEN-NO, SEA-GB, JAX-MIA, BUF-TB, LVR-ARI

4.  Big wins have a carryover effect
NFL teams coming off preseason wins of 20+ points and favored are on a 29-7 SU and 23-10-2 ATS (69.7%) surge since 2013. Most bettors tend to favor a yin-yang strategy in the preseason, assuming that the scales balance out, but in truth, big wins have provided big momentum for the next game as well.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 at NO)

5. Teams off double-digit losses are bad bets at home, good on road
Double-digit games are noteworthy as indicators of the potential performance of the losing team in the follow-up game. When these teams have played at home the following week, they have gone just 39-55 ATS (41.5%) since 2013. When they faced their next contest on the road, they performed well, 60-43 ATS (58.3%) in that same time span, including 7-2 ATS since the start of last year.
System Matches:
AT HOME (FADE): CAROLINA (+4.5 vs PIT), NY JETS (-2.5 vs PHI), DALLAS (-2.5 vs ATL), KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs CHI), WASHINGTON (+2.5 vs BAL), ARIZONA (+1.5 vs LVR)
ON THE ROAD (PLAY): BUFFALO (-2.5 at TB) 

6. Teams that scored very well last game tend to come back down to earth
Offensive outbursts one week don’t tend to carry over to the next game in the preseason, as teams that scored 34 points or more in their previous exhibition game have gone just 16-18 SU & 15-18-1 ATS (45.5%) since ’15. Only three of these 34 teams reached 30 again as well.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 at KC) 

7. Teams that didn’t score well at all are good Over bets the next game
Struggling offenses tend to bounce back well in the next outing of the preseason, as teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason contest have gone 89-63-1 Over the total (58.6%) in the next game since 2010. These teams average 20.2 PPG in the next contest, while giving up 20.5. If you’re looking for a short-term ATS edge on these teams, they are also on a current 24-8 ATS (75%) surge!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA (+4.5 vs PIT), BUFFALO (-2.5 at TB), ARIZONA (-1.5 vs LVR)
PLAY OVER the total in: PIT-CAR (o/u at 35.5), BUF-TB (o/u at 37.5), LVR-ARI (o/u at 37.5) 

8. Preseason games between conference opponents lean heavily Under
Interestingly, dating back to September 2015, preseason games between opponents from the same conference have trended heavily Under the total, going 65-42 Under (60.7%). Just over one-third of preseason games fall into this category. Furthermore, if you add the qualifiers from #7 above to that time span, preseason games between conference opponents with totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 52-25 rate (67.5%) since September ‘15!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-DAL (o/u at 35.5), IND-CIN (o/u at 36.5), SEA-GB (o/u at 37.5), JAX-MIA (o/u at 37.5)

9.Teams that lost their first two games but are playing on the road in a competitive line range (-4.5 to +2.5) against non-conference opponents have gone 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) since 2010
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-2.5 at TB)

10. Teams that lost their first two games but are playing in the short favorite/pick’em line range (-3.5 to PK) against non-conference opponents have seen their totals go Under at a 18-6-2 rate (75%) since 2010
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-KC (o/u at 41.5), BUF-TB (o/u at 37.5)

11. Teams that won their first two games and are playing as a large favorite of -6 or higher have seen their totals go Under at a 11-5 rate (68.8%) since 2010
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NE-NYG (o/u at 37.5), LAR-CLE (o/u at 39.5)
*WATCH FOR DENVER at NO, -5.5 favorite currently

12. Teams that won their first two games and are playing at HOME with a total of 37.5 or higher have seen the total go Under at a 26-10-2 rate (72.2%) since 2010
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NE-NYG (o/u at 37.5), LAR-CLE (o/u at 39.5), BUF-TB (o/u at 37.5)

This Week’s NFLPS Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ENGLAND +6.5 (+5.0)
2. CAROLINA +4.5 (+4.8)
3. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+3.0)
4. TAMPA BAY +2.5 (+2.9)
5. SAN FRANCISCO +1.5 (+2.5) 

This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NY JETS -2.5 (+1.7)
2. DALLAS -2.5 (+1.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARIZONA +1.5 (+4.6)
2. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+3.1)
3. TAMPA BAY +2.5 (+2.9)
4. SAN FRANCISCO +1.5 (+2.5)
5. CHICAGO +1.5 (+2.1) 

This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -2.5 (+1.3)
2. PITTSBURGH -4.5 (+0.4) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-CIN OVER 36.5 (+5.4)
2. CHI-KC OVER 41.5 (+3.8)
3. PHI-NYJ OVER 34.5 (+3.6)
4. JAX-MIA OVER 37.5 (+2.0)
5. ATL-DAL OVER 35.5 (+1.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BAL-WAS UNDER 35.5 (-2.5)
2(tie). HOU-DET UNDER 34.5 (-1.7)
LAC-SF UNDER 35.5 (-1.7)
4. MIN-TEN UNDER 37.5 (-0.9)
5. BUF-TB UNDER 37.5 (-0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ENGLAND +6.5 (+4.3)
2. CAROLINA +4.5 (+3.9)
3. CHICAGO +1.5 (+3.6)
4. HOUSTON +1.5 (+3.4)
5. MINNESOTA +3 (+3.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). NY JETS -2.5 (+1.2)
DALLAS -2.5 (+1.2)
3. CINCINNATI -3 (+0.1) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BAL-WAS OVER 35.5 (+6.5)
2. IND-CIN OVER 36.5 (+5.5)
3. PHI-NYJ OVER 34.5 (+3.7)
4. LAC-SF OVER 35.5 (+2.7)
5. JAX-MIA OVER 37.5 (+1.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAR-CLE UNDER 39.5 (-4.0)
2. SEA-GB UNDER 37.5 (-1.7)
3. MIN-TEN UNDER 37.5 (-0.8)
4. CHI-KC UNDER 41.5 (-0.6)
5. BUF-TB UNDER 37.5 (-0.5) 

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of preseason action: 

8/21/25 – NEW ENGLAND (2-0) at NY GIANTS (2-0)
-NEW ENGLAND is on a current 15-5 UNDER the total surge in the preseason
-NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 UNDER the total in its L19 preseason road affairs
-NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 UNDER the total in L16 as preseason underdog
-The last seven NY GIANTS preseason games following up an outright win have gone Over the total, producing 51 PPG
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 3 PLAYS UNDER the total (o/u at 37.5)

-The NY GIANTS are 6-5 SU but just 3-8 ATS in eleven preseason games under head coach Brian Daboll
-NY GIANTS are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 as preseason favorites
Trends Match (FADE ATS): NY GIANTS (-6.5 vs NE) 

8/21/25 – PITTSBURGH (1-1) at CAROLINA (0-2)
-PITTSBURGH is 1-4 SU and ATS since the start of last year, after an 18-4 SU and 16-6 ATS run prior to
Trend Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (-4.5 at CAR) 

8/22/25 – ATLANTA (0-2) at DALLAS (0-2)
-ATLANTA is on a 5-23-1 SU and 5-24 ATS skid in the preseason
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+2.5 at DAL)

-DALLAS is 6-16-2 ATS in the last 24 preseason games following a loss
-DALLAS is on a 4-15-3 ATS skid as the preseason favorite
Trends Match (FADE): DALLAS (-2.5 vs ATL) 

8/22/25 – CHICAGO (1-0) at KANSAS CITY (0-2)
-CHICAGO is on a 9-2-1 SU and 11-1 ATS run in the preseason
-CHICAGO is on an impressive run on 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 road preseason games, and is 9-1 Over the total in its last 10
-CHICAGO is 17-4 ATS since 2015 as a preseason underdog
Trends Match: PLAY CHICAGO (+1.5 at KC), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 41.5) 

8/22/25 – PHILADELPHIA (1-1) at NY JETS (1-1)
-The NY JETS are on a 13-4-1 SU and 13-5 ATS run in the preseason
Trend Match (PLAY): NY JETS (-2.5 vs PHI) 

8/23/25 – BALTIMORE (2-0) at WASHINGTON (0-2)
-WASHINGTON has gone 10-2 Under the total in the last 12 games following up a preseason loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-WAS (o/u at 35.5) 

8/23/25 – BUFFALO (0-2) at TAMPA BAY (2-0)
-BUFFALO is on a 13-6 SU and ATS surge in the preseason
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-2.5 at TB)

-TAMPA BAY has gone Over the total in the last six home preseason contests
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BUF-TB (o/u at 37.5) 

8/23/25 – DENVER (2-0) at NEW ORLEANS (0-1)
-Outright winners are on an incredible 38-1-1 ATS run in DENVER preseason games
-DENVER is 15-4 SU and 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 as a preseason favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 at NO)

-NEW ORLEANS has gone 20-8-1 Under the total in its last 29 preseason tilts
-NEW ORLEANS is 2-10-1 SU and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as preseason underdog
Trends Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 vs DEN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 39.5) 

8/23/25 – HOUSTON (1-1) at DETROIT (1-2)
-HOUSTON is on a 14-3 Under the total run in preseason games, total point production 32.1 PPG
-DETROIT is on an 18-7 Over the total surge in preseason games, allowing 23.7 PPG.
-DETROIT has gone 11-1 Over the total in the last 12 games following a preseason loss
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 34.5)

-HOUSTON has won six of its last seven true road preseason games SU and ATS, holding opponents to 13.6 PPG
-DETROIT is on skids of 2-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in home preseason games
-DETROIT is on a 2-6 SU and 1-6-1 ATS slide as preseason chalk
Trends Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 at DET) 

8/23/25 – INDIANAPOLIS (0-2) at CINCINNATI (1-1)
-INDIANAPOLIS is on a 14-5 Over the total run in preseason action, total point production 41.2 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-CIN (o/u at 36.5)

-INDIANAPOLIS is on an a 9-0-3 ATS surge as a preseason underdog
-CINCINNATI has struggled to a 4-14-1 SU and 8-11 ATS record in its last 19 preseason contests
-CINCINNATI has gone just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 preseason games at home
-CINCINNATI is 3-8 ATS in last 11 as preseason chalk
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+3 at CIN) 

8/23/25 – JACKSONVILLE (0-1) at MIAMI (1-0)
-JACKSONVILLE is on a 6-1-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run while outscoring opponents 25.4-14.5
-JACKSONVILLE has been a good road preseason team, 14-6 ATS in its last 20
Trends Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+3 at MIA)

-MIAMI has gone 12-6-1 SU and 13-6 ATS in its last 19 preseason games
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3 vs JAX) 

8/23/25 – LA CHARGERS (2-1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1-1)
-SAN FRANCISCO is on a 9-1-1 ATS streak as a preseason underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+1.5 vs LAC) 

8/23/25 – LA RAMS (2-0) at CLEVELAND (2-0)a
-CLEVELAND is 0-6-1 ATS in the last seven preseason games at home
-CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS in the last nine as a preseason favorite
Trends Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs LAR)

-CLEVELAND is on crazy 14-2 Under the total surge in preseason games following a win the week prior, allowing just 15 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-CLE (o/u at 39.5) 

8/23/25 – SEATTLE (1-0) at GREEN BAY (1-1)
-SEATTLE has gone Under the total in 11 of its last 16 preseason contests
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-GB (o/u at 37.5)

-GREEN BAY is on a 15-5 SU and ATS run in preseason games at Lambeau Field
-GREEN BAY is 13-4 SU and ATS as a preseason favorite since 2014
-GREEN BAY has lost its last five preseason games following up a win, both SU and ATS, while scoring 9.8 PPG
-SEATTLE has dropped five in a row SU and ATS as a preseason dog
Trends Match: 3 PLAYS, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-1.5 vs SEA) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ preseason action: 

8/21/25 – NEW ENGLAND at NY GIANTS
* Underdogs are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS in NE-NYG head-to-head preseason series since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+6.5 at NYG)

8/23/25 – LA CHARGERS at SAN FRANCISCO
* LA CHARGERS are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four preseason head-to-head meetings with SF
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-1.5 at SF) 

8/23/25 – INDIANAPOLIS at CINCINNATI
* Road teans are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in IND-CIN head-to-head preseason series since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+3 at CIN)

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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