The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

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WEEK 1 SYSTEM #1: Divisional home underdogs are 18-9-2 SU & 23-6 ATS (79.3%) in Week 1 since 2009 (Win: +16.4 units, ROI.: 56.5%, Grade 75)
System Match: PLAY – INDIANAPOLIS (+3 vs HOU)

WEEK 1 SYSTEM #3: NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 52-21-5 ATS (71.2%) since 2004 (Win: +28.9 units, R.O.I.: 36.6%, Grade 72)
System Matches: PLAY ALL – ARIZONA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON

* Lamar Jackson (BAL) is 11-5 SU and 14-2 ATS (87.5%) as an underdog. The average line was +3.3, Team average PF: 25.3
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+3 at KC) 

* Under total is 19-4 in LVR-LAC series at Chargers since 2001
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in LVR-LAC (o/u at 40.5)

This week’s #1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: SAN FRANCISCO -4.5 (+3.4 difference)

Under the total SNF Team Trends
Detroit 5-1-1 Under in the last seven
LA Rams 6-1 Under since 2019
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in LAR-DET (o/u at 50.5)

– Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 26-8 SU and 23-10-1 ATS (69.7%).
System Match: PLAY – CHICAGO (-4 vs. TEN) 

NFL Week 1 Systems

These systems were from an article posted just a couple of weeks back on VSiN.com, as well as the NFL Betting Guide:

Week 1 SYSTEM #1: Divisional home underdogs are 18-9-2 SU and 23-6 ATS (79.3%) in Week 1 since 2009 (Win: +16.4 units, ROI: 56.5%, Grade 75)
System Match: PLAY – INDIANAPOLIS (+3 vs. HOU)

Week 1 SYSTEM #2: Home teams priced in the range of +3 to -3 in Week 1 non-conference games have gone just 5-15 SU and 3-16-1 ATS since 2015 (Loss: -14.6 units, ROI: -76.8%, Grade 75)
System Match: FADE -CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs. DAL)
Also watch for ATLANTA vs Houston, CHICAGO vs. Tennessee

Week 1 SYSTEM #3: NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 52-21-5 ATS (71.2%) since 2004 (Win: +28.9 units, ROI: 36.6%, Grade 72)
System Matches: PLAY ALL -ARIZONA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON

Week 1 SYSTEM #4: Divisional road underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on a 17-13 SU and 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) run since 2013. (Win: +12.2 units, ROI: 42.1%, Grade 70)
System Match: NONE (watch for CAROLINA (at NO) or LAS VEGAS (at LAC))

Week 1 SYSTEM #5 Laying big points is rarely a good idea in a week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 10-30-1 SU,  but they are 27-13-1 ATS (67.5%) in Week 1 since 2013 (Win: +12.7 units, ROI: 31.8%, Grade 65)
System Matches: PLAY ALL –NEW ENGLAND, ARIZONA
Also watch for DENVER at Seattle

Week 1 SYSTEM #6: Opening week home favorites hosting teams that were above .500 the prior season are 48-27-5 ATS (64%) since 2000 (Win: +18.3 units, ROI: 24.4%, Grade 60)
System Matches: PLAY ALL – ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, MIAMI

Week 1 SYSTEM #7: Week 1 favorites playing in a revenge spot from a loss the prior season are just 17-24 SU and 15-26 ATS (36.6%) over the last 12 seasons (Loss: -13.6 units, ROI: -33.2%, Grade 63)
System Match: FADE – LA CHARGERS (-3 vs. LVR)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Now, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, CAROLINA, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, LA CHARGERS, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA, HOUSTON, LA CHARGERS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, HOUSTON, LA CHARGERS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, CHICAGO, ARIZONA, SEATTLE, DALLAS, NY JETS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, HOUSTON

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, DALLAS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) and 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2022 was 44.2. Last year, it dropped over a point to 43.0. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher, and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors rebounded incredibly in 2023, after going 28-53 ATS in 2022, they were. 44-24 ATS (64.7%) last year! We’ll see how that latter trend holds in 2024.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): OVER – BAL-KC, JAX-MIA
UNDER – PHI-GB, ARI-BUF, LAR-DET

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BAL-KC, GB-PHI, PIT-ATL, MIN-NYG, NE-CIN, LVR-LAC, DEN-SEA, DAL-CLE, NYJ-SF

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-IND, WAS-TB

NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).

Rookie Coach Systems

Games this week: CAR-NO(-4), NE-CIN(-7.5), TEN-CHI(-4), DEN-SEA(-6)
– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 152-167-8 ATS (47.6%). Road/Neutral games – 172-149-7 ATS (55.3%).
System Matches: PLAY ROAD TEAMS– CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE
FADE HOME TEAMS– SEATTLE

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 29-118 SU (19.7%) and 71-74-2 ATS (49%) when catching 7 points or more since 2013.
System Match: FADE – NEW ENGLAND

– Ironically, it’s in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+6.5 to -6.5 lines) where rookie head coaches enjoy better point spread success rates. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 235-230-2 SU and 237-219-11 ATS (52%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE

– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2013: Divisional games 112-121-6 ATS (48.1%), Conference games 122-116-4 ATS (51.3%), Non-conference games 90-78-5 ATS (53.5%). These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Matches: PLAY – NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE
FADE DIVISIONAL GAME – CAROLINA

– Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 81-75-6 ATS, good for 51.9%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 152-159-9 ATS (48.9%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 91-82-2 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE, NEW ENGLAND

Re-Tread Coach Systems
Games this week: PIT-ATL, LVR-LAC, WAS-TB

–  Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 76-111 ATS (40.6%). Road/Neutral games – 92-101 ATS (47.7%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON

– Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 75-63 SU but just 41-86-11 ATS, for 32.3%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 78-180 SU and 127-126-5 ATS (50.1%).
System Match: FADE FAVORITES– LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA
SLIGHT PLAY UNDERDOGS – WASHINGTON

– The ATS results by game type are almost identical for the Division (44.9%)/Conference (44.0%)/ Non-conference (43.4%) scenarios for re-tread head coaches in their first seasons with new teams over the last decade.

 – Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2014, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 81-131-6 ATS (38.2%), while in weeks #11 & later, they’ve gone 87-81-10 ATS (51.8%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON 

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2024 include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road.
(Games this week: TEN-CHI(-4), WAS-TB(-3), DEN-SEA(-6)) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
·        Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 167-300-2 SU (35.8%) and 218-245-6 ATS (47.1%). Furthermore, this past season saw the #1 pick, Bryce Young of the Panthers, guide his team to the worst won-lost percentage drop in his starts for any QB in the last 20 years.
System Matches: FADE –CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Rookie quarterbacks have gotten off to very slow starts of late
·  As part of their overall recent struggles, rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early season starters, going 2-18-1 SU and 5-15-1 ATS (25%) in their last 21 Week 1-3 games. They are also on a 22-7 Under the total (75.9%) run in their last 29 such contests.
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
· The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 107-105 ATS (50.5%) in home games but just 88-113 ATS (43.8%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 32-94 SU and 52-72-2 ATS (41.9%).
System Match: FADE – WASHINGTON, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
· Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 15 games, going 15-108 SU and 45-75-3 ATS (37.5%).
System Match: FADE DENVER (*if they become a 6.5-points or more underdog, +6 currently)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
· Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 26-8 SU and 23-10-1 ATS (69.7%).
System Match: PLAY – CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional & non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
–   Since 2018, rookie QBs are just 20-42 SU and 24-37-1 ATS (39.3%) versus non-conference foes.
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, DENVER

–  Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 42-49 SU but 54-37 ATS (59.3%).
System Match: PLAY – WASHINGTON

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This year, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh), and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta).
Games this week: PIT-ATL(-3.5), NYJ-SF(-4.5)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Veteran quarterbacks start slow for their new teams
· It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in the month of September, these guys have gone 37-25 Under the total (59.7%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER – PIT-ATL, NYJ-SF 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
·  Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 19-32 SU and 19-31-1 ATS (38%) in their last 51 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 8-16-1 ATS (33.3%) in their last 25 Monday Night contests.
System Match: FADE – NY JETS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
· The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 113-65 SU and 95-72-11 ATS (56.9%).
System Match: PLAY – ATLANTA

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
·  Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 40-65 SU but 60-40-5 ATS (60%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
System Matches: PLAY – PITTSBURGH, NY JETS

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday NIGHT games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 31-32 SU and 38-23-2 ATS (62.3%) in the last 63.
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+3 at KC)

·  There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 20-18 SU but 10-26-2 ATS (27.8%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 37-25 SU and 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-3 vs. BAL) 

Good TNF Team Trends
Kansas City 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-3 vs. BAL) 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 14-12 SU and 9-17 ATS (34.6%) in their last 26 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-3.5 vs. LAR)

Bad SNF Team Trends
Detroit 2-5 SU and ATS in the last seven
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-3.5 vs. LAR)

Under the total SNF Team Trends
Detroit 5-1-1 Under in the last seven
LA Rams 6-1 Under since 2019
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 50.5) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 22-22 SU but 11-31-2 ATS (26.2%) in the last 44.
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 vs. NYJ)

Good MNF Team Trends
San Francisco 11-6 SU and ATS since 2012
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 vs NYJ)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Baltimore 24-10 SU and 22-11-1 ATS in the last 34
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+3 at KC)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
NY Jets 1-12 SU while going 3-10 ATS
System Match: FADE NY JETS (+4.5 at SF)

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
LA Rams 12-4 Under surge
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-DET (o/u at 50.5)

This week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). NY GIANTS +1.5 (+2.1)
DALLAS +2.5 (+2.1)
3. GREEN BAY +2.5 (+1.9)
4(tie). DENVER +6 (+0.8)
INDIANAPOLIS +3 (+0.8)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BUFFALO -6.5 (+1.7)
2. CINCINNATI -8 (+1.6)
3(tie). NEW ORLEANS -4 (+1.3)
SAN FRANCISCO -4.5 (+1.3)
5. TAMPA BAY -3.5 (+1.2) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GREEN BAY +2.5 (+2.7)
2. JACKSONVILLE +3.5 (+1.4)
3(tie). CAROLINA +4 (+0.6)
PITTSBURGH +3.5 (+0.6)
5. TENNESSEE +4 (+0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN FRANCISCO -4.5 (+3.4)
2. CINCINNATI -8 (+2.1)
3. KANSAS CITY -3 (+1.5)
4. BUFFALO -6.5 (+0.6)
5. DETROIT -3.5 (+0.1) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 

1. NYJ-SF OVER 44 (+2.5)
2. DAL-CLE OVER 40.5 (+1.5)
3(tie). MIN-NYG OVER 41 (+1.1)
CAR-NO OVER 42 (+1.1
5. DEN-SEA OVER 41.5 (+1.0)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PIT-ATL UNDER 42 (-1.1)
2. JAX-MIA UNDER 49 (-0.7)
3. WAS-TB UNDER 44 (-0.6)
4. LAR-DET UNDER 50.5 (-0.5)
5(tie). GB-PHI UNDER 49 (-0.1)
ARI-BUF UNDER 48 (-0.1) 

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +2.5 (+1.8)
2. DENVER +6 (+1.5)
3. NY GIANTS +1.5 (+0.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI -3.5 (+2.4)
2. BUFFALO -6.5 (+2.3)
3. CINCINNATI -8 (+2.2)
4. PHILADELPHIA -2.5 (+1.2)
5. DETROIT -3.5 (+0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-CLE OVER 40.5 (+5.9)
2. LVR-LAC OVER 40.5 (+2.3)
3. DEN-SEA OVER 41.5 (+1.5)
4. NE-CIN OVER 41 (+1.1)
5(tie). LAR-DET OVER 50.5 (+0.8)
NYJ-SF OVER 44 (+0.8)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CAR-NO UNDER 42 (-2.5)
2(tie). WAS-TB UNDER 44 (-1.8)
TEN-CHI UNDER 44.5 (-1.8)
4. HOU-IND UNDER 48.5 (-1.7)
5(tie). BAL-KC UNDER 46.5 (-0.2)
GB-PHI UNDER 49 (-0.2) 

Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter: 

* Jared Goff (DET) is 25-24 SU but 34-15 ATS (69.4%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +2.1, Team average PF: 24.1
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3.5 vs LAR)

* Lamar Jackson (BAL) is 11-5 SU and 14-2 ATS (87.5%) as an underdog. The average line was +3.3, Team average PF: 25.3
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+3 at KC)

* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 16-7 SU and ATS (69.6%) vs. non-divisional conference foes. The average line was -0.4, Team average PF: 25.2
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-8 vs NE)

* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is 20-6 SU and 18-8 ATS (69.2%) in home games. The average line was -3.6, Team average PF: 24.6
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-3.5 vs. JAX)

* Derek Carr (NO) is 19-29 SU and 16-30-2 ATS (34.8%) vs. NFC foes. The average line was +0.6, Team average PF: 20.8

* Derek Carr (NO) is 32-26 SU & 18-37-1 ATS (32.7%) as a Favorite. The average line was -4, Team average PF: 23.4
Systems Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-4 vs. CAR) 

* Sam Darnold (MIN) is 6-16 SU and ATS (27.3%) as a road underdog. The average line was +7.8, Team average PF: 16.2
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (*if they become an underdog at NYG, -1.5 currently*)

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* ARIZONA is 25-19 ATS (56.8%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 22-16 ATS (57.9%) as an underdog since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+6.5 at BUF) 

* ATLANTA is 17-30 ATS (36.2%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 31-54 ATS (36.5%) as a favorite since 2014
* ATLANTA is 15-29 ATS (34.1%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Systems Match: FADE ATLANTA (-3.5 vs PIT) 

* BALTIMORE is 38-19 ATS (66.7%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* BALTIMORE is 24-8 ATS (75%) as an underdog since 2017
Systems Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+3 at KC)

* CINCINNATI is 44-25 ATS (63.8%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-8 vs NE) 

* CLEVELAND is 30-39 ATS (43.5%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 19-28 ATS (40.4%) as a favorite since 2017
* CLEVELAND is 12-5 ATS (70.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2020
Systems Match: 2 FADES, 1 PLAY of CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs DAL) 

* DALLAS is 17-11 ATS (60.7%) in road/neutral games since 2021
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+2.5 at CLE) 

* DENVER is 91-57 UNDER the total (61.5%) since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-SEA (o/u at 41.5)

* DETROIT is 18-6 ATS (75%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 35-15 ATS (70%) overall since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3.5 vs. LAR) 

* GREEN BAY is 20-9 ATS (69%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+2.5 vs. PHI)

* JACKSONVILLE is 31-21 Under the total (59.6%) since 2021
System Match: PLAY UNDER in JAX-MIA (o/u at 49)

* LA CHARGERS are 31-48 ATS (39.2%) at home since 2014
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS (-3 vs. LVR)

* LA RAMS are 41-31 Under the total (56.9%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 50.5)

* LAS VEGAS is 23-12 ATS (65.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 32-45 ATS (41.6%) in road/neutral games since 2015
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+3 at LAC)

* MIAMI is 56-27 ATS (67.5%) at home since 2014
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-3.5 vs. JAX)

* MINNESOTA is 50-35 OVER the total (58.8%) since 2019
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 41)

* NEW ENGLAND is 10-17 ATS (37%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+7.5 at CIN)

* NEW ORLEANS is 20-37 ATS (35.1%) at home since 2017
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-4 vs CAR)

* NY GIANTS are 44-22 Under the total (66.7%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41)

* NY JETS are 12-25 ATS (32.4%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS are 18-39 ATS (31.6%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (+4.5 at SF)

* PHILADELPHIA is 17-27 ATS (38.6%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs GB)

* PITTSBURGH is 92-61 Under the total (60.1%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 30-16 ATS (65.2%) as an underdog since 2018
Systems Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+3.5 at ATL), also PLAY UNDER in PIT-ATL (o/u at 41.5) 

* SAN FRANCISCO is 17-25 ATS (40.5%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 vs. NYJ)

* SEATTLE is 20-14 ATS (58.8%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-6 vs. DEN)

* TAMPA BAY is 33-46ATS (41.8%) at home since 2014
* TAMPA BAY is 31-45 ATS (40.8%) as a favorite since 2014
Systems Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-3 vs WAS)

* WASHINGTON is 38-27 UNDER the total (58.5%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 44)

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(451) BALTIMORE at (452) KANSAS CITY
* Underdogs have won the last three SU and ATS in the BAL-KC series
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE ATS

(453) GREEN BAY vs. (454) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites are on 8-4 ATS run in the GB-PHI series
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(467) ARIZONA at (468) BUFFALO
* BUFFALO is 5-1 ATS versus Arizona since 1999
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS 

(461) CAROLINA at (462) NEW ORLEANS
* The last seven games of the CAR-NO rivalry went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(477) DALLAS at (478) CLEVELAND
* Road teams have won the last four ATS in the DAL-CLE series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(475) DENVER at (476) SEATTLE
* Home teams are on a 3-0-1 ATS surge in the DEN-SEA series
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE ATS

(469) HOUSTON at (470) INDIANAPOLIS
* Favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the HOU-IND series in Indianapolis
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(455) JACKSONVILLE at (456) MIAMI
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of JAC-MIA in-state rivalry
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(479) LA RAMS at (480) DETROIT
* Road teams are on a 3-0 ATS surge in the LAR-DET series
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS ATS

(471) LAS VEGAS at (472) LA CHARGERS
* Under total is 19-4 in the LVR-LAC series at Chargers since 2001
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(459) MINNESOTA at (460) NY GIANTS
* Road teams are on a 3-0 ATS surge in the MIN-NYG series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(463) NEW ENGLAND at (464) CINCINNATI
* FAVORITES have won the last three SU and ATS in the NE-CIN series
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS

(457) PITTSBURGH at (458) ATLANTA
* PITTSBURGH is on 4-0 ATS streak versus Atlanta
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH ATS

(465) TENNESSEE at (466) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 5-2 in the last seven of the TEN-CHI series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(473) WASHINGTON at (474) TAMPA BAY
* Underdogs have gone 9-1-2 ATS in the last 12 of the WAS-TB series
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

(481) NY JETS at (482) SAN FRANCISCO
* Road teams are on a 7-1 ATS run in the last eight of the NYJ-SF series
System Match: PLAY NY JETS ATS

For more NFL Week 1 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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