Week 14 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 14. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
NFL PTD Betting System #16 – In PTD games where there is win advantage of at least four season wins for the home team and they are favored but not by more than 7 points, these hosts boast an incredible 40-6 SU and 35-10 ATS (77.8%) record since Christmas 2016, and are currently riding a 15-game SU and ATS winning streak!
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-5.5 vs CIN)
* New Orleans is 15-1 ATS in the last 16 rematch games when having lost to that team earlier in the season
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at TB)
* SEATTLE is 20-4 Under the total as road favorite vs. non-divisional NFC foes since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-ATL (o/u at 44.5)
* In Monday Night Football games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 31-31 SU but 20-40-2 ATS (33.3%) in the last 62.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+3 vs PHI)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 65-15 SU and 51-27-2 ATS (65.4%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7.5 at LVR)
NFL PTD Betting System #12 – Another winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of 4 games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 34-42 SU and 28-47 ATS (37.3%) dating back to 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+6.5 at GB), HOUSTON (+3.5 at KC)
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between Pittsburgh and Baltimore
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-BAL (o/u at 42.5)
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen Bettors Ratings: DETROIT -3 vs DAL (projections have line at DET -8.7)
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(101) DALLAS (6-5) at (102) DETROIT (7-5)
* DALLAS is 30-25 ATS (54.5%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
* DALLAS is 24-17 ATS (58.5%) in road/neutral games since 2021
* DALLAS’s Dak Prescott owns a poor 24-30-1 SU and 19-36 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is on a 5-13-1 SU and 7-12 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 2 FADES of DALLAS (+3 at DET)
* DETROIT is 26-13-1 ATS (66.7%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is on a 20-13 SU and 22-10-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT is on a 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs DAL)
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 13-2 Over the total with his team coming off a home win since 2022
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is 16-7 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DAL-DET (o/u at 54.5)
(121) WASHINGTON (3-9) at (122) MINNESOTA (4-8)
* WASHINGTON is 22-39 ATS (36.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 1-11 SU and ATS when coming off a non-conference defeat since 2016
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of WASHINGTON (+2.5 at MIN)
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 83-62 SU and 89-55-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 22-13 SU but only 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games as a home favorite
* MINNESOTA is 34-29 ATS (54%) when coming off a SU loss since 2014
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs WAS)
* MINNESOTA is 64-51 Over the total (55.7%) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WAS-MIN (o/u at 41.5)
(123) MIAMI (5-7) at (124) NY JETS (3-9)
* MIAMI is on a 36-21 SU and 34-22 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI is 39-24 ATS (61.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is on a 14-7 SU and ATS surge with his team coming off a home win
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 13-4 SU and 11-5-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
* NY JETS are 12-28 ATS (30%) when coming off a SU win since 2017
* NY JETS are 20-37 ATS (35.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 at NYJ)
(125) TENNESSEE (1-11) at (126) CLEVELAND (3-9)
* TENNESSEE is 21-18 SU and 23-15 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
* TENNESSEE is on an 8-39 SU and 12-34-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 35-51-1 ATS (40.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of TENNESSEE (+4.5 at CLE)
* CLEVELAND is 36-46 ATS (43.9%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 20-33 ATS (37.7%) as a favorite since 2017
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is on a 10-7 SU and ATS run when coming off an outright home loss
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs TEN)
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 18-11 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-CLE (o/u at 33.5)
(127) PITTSBURGH (6-6) at (128) BALTIMORE (6-6)
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on a 32-28 SU and 38-19-1 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
* PITTSBURGH is 38-23-1 ATS (62.3%) as an underdog since 2018
* BALTIMORE is 28-14 SU but 15-26 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+6 at BAL)
* PITTSBURGH is 108-75 Under the total (59%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-BAL (o/u at 42.5)
(129) SEATTLE (9-3) at (130) ATLANTA (4-8)
* SEATTLE is 20-4 Under the total as road favorite vs. non-divisional NFC foes since 2013
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 29-15 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-ATL (o/u at 44.5)
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 13-11 SU and 9-14-1 ATS in the last 24 starts vs. teams with losing records
* SEATTLE is 47-53-1 ATS (47%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
Trends Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-7 at ATL)
* ATLANTA’s Kirk Cousins is 19-14 SU and 20-11 ATS with his team coming off a road loss since 2015
* ATLANTA is on a 13-25 SU and 11-27 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
* ATLANTA is 22-39 ATS (36.1%) at home since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of ATLANTA (+7 vs SEA)
(131) INDIANAPOLIS (8-4) at (132) JACKSONVILLE (8-4)
* INDIANAPOLIS is on an impressive run of 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS as a favorite of less than 3 points
* INDIANAPOLIS’ Daniel Jones is 17-19 SU and 21-16 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5 at JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE is 45-36 Under the total (55.6%) since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-JAX (o/u at 47.5)
(133) CHICAGO (9-3) at (134) GREEN BAY (8-3)
* CHICAGO is 10-26 SU and 12-24 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO is 33-48 ATS (40.7%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 33-45-1 ATS (42.3%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+6.5 at GB)
* GREEN BAY is 37-22 ATS (62.7%) at home since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 23-15-1 ATS (60.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 24-15-1 SU but 15-25 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-6.5 vs CHI)
* CHICAGO is 17-6 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2017
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 16-9 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 11-1 Over the total when coming off an upset win since 2021
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CHI-GB (o/u at 44.5)
(135) NEW ORLEANS (2-10) at (136) TAMPA BAY (7-5)
* NEW ORLEANS is 39-26 ATS (60%) in road/neutral games since 2018
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 16-10 SU but 7-19 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
* TAMPA BAY is 39-55 ATS (41.5%) at home since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at TB)
(137) DENVER (10-2) at (138) LAS VEGAS (2-10)
* DENVER is 106-71 Under the total (59.9%) since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 30-9 Over the total vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2013
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DEN-LVR (o/u at 40.5)
* DENVER is 26-39 ATS (40%) as a favorite since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-7.5 at LVR)
* LAS VEGAS is 38-54 ATS (41.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 26-19 ATS (57.8%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+7.5 at DEN)
(139) LA RAMS (9-3) at (140) ARIZONA (3-9)
* LA RAMS are 27-15 ATS (64.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS are on 22-7 SU and 23-6 ATS December run since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-7.5 at ARI)
* ARIZONA is 28-35 ATS (44.4%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 13-22 ATS (37.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 35-22 ATS (61.4%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of ARIZONA (+7.5 vs LAR)
* LA RAMS are 58-45 Under the total (56.3%) since 2020
* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on 9-3 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in LAR-ARI (o/u at 47.5)
(141) CINCINNATI (4-8) at (142) BUFFALO (8-4)
* CINCINNATI is 58-68 SU but 75-48 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on a 14-12 SU and 19-7 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is on a 9-10 SU but 17-2 ATS run as an underdog of +3 to 7 points
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 10-8 SU and 15-3 ATS in the last 18 starts vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* CINCINNATI is 50-29 ATS (63.3%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5.5 at BUF)
* BUFFALO is 43-30 ATS (58.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-5.5 vs CIN)
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 13-7 Under the total versus non-divisional AFC foes since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-BUF (o/u at 52.5)
(143) HOUSTON (7-5) at (144) KANSAS CITY (6-6)
* HOUSTON is on a 19-58 SU and 28-48 ATS slide vs. elite teams with point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 32-13 SU and 26-17 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 vs HOU)
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 16-9 Under the total in the last 25 games with his team coming off a win
* KANSAS CITY is 78-40 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-KC (o/u at 41.5)
(145) PHILADELPHIA (8-4) at (146) LA CHARGERS (8-4)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 12-4 Under the total in last 16 games when coming off an outright loss
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 22-12 Under the total in his last 34 road games
* LA CHARGERS are 67-35 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-LAC (o/u at 40.5)
* PHILADELPHIA is 15-29 ATS (34.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at LAC)
* LA CHARGERS are 40-52-1 ATS (43.5%) at home since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+3 vs PHI)
NFL Late-Season Betting Systems
NFL PTD Betting System #1 – There have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been -1 to -2.5, they’ve gone 54-39 SU and 52-40 ATS (56.5%) since ‘15. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 140-79 SU and 108-70 ATS (60.7%), since New Year’s ‘17.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): -1 to -2.5 line range – MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs WAS)
-3.5 to -7 line range – CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs TEN), BALTIMORE (-6 vs PIT), BUFFALO (-5.5 vs CIN), GREEN BAY (-6.5 vs CHI), KANSAS CITY (-3.5 vs HOU)
NFL PTD Betting System #2 – On late-season totals, there has been a PTD opportunity in games with the lowest numbers, as those games with posted totals of 40 or less have gone Over at a 79-64 (55.2%) rate since 2015.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TEN-CLE (o/u at 33.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #4 – There has been a sweet spot for betting late-season road favorites in the non-Sunday late-season games recently, and that is in the -3 to -9.5 line range, as these PTD chalk options are 36-7 SU and 27-15 ATS (64.3%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at LAC)
NFL PTD Betting System #5 – NFL PTD teams coming off a game in which they lost by a TD or less as a 7-point or more favorite have bounced back well, going 26-10 SU and 22-14 ATS (61.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-7.5 at ARI)
NFL PTD Betting System #6 – Losing to a non-divisional conference foe at home can prove to be a negative momentum builder for NFL PTD teams, especially when hitting the road as an underdog the next week, as these teams have gone just 17-58 SU and 27-48 ATS (36%) in the follow-up game since 2015.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+6 at BAL)
NFL PTD Betting System #7 – NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 52-34 SU and 50-35 ATS (58.8%) in the follow-up game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+7 vs SEA), LA RAMS (-7.5 at ARI), KANSAS CITY (-3.5 vs HOU)
NFL PTD Betting System #8 – Brutal scoring efforts have propelled NFL PTD teams to good success in the next outing, as teams that scored less than 6 points in late-season games have bounced back with a 31-26 SU and 37-18 ATS (67.3%) record in the follow-up outing since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE (+4.5 at CLE), MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs WAS)
NFL PTD Betting System #9 – NFL PTD teams scoring less than 17 points in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, particularly as home underdogs, as they are 63-45 Under the total (58.3%) in this situation dating back to 2015.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-LVR (o/u at 40.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #10 – NFL PTD teams allowing 30 points or more in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, going 131-91 Under the total (59%) in the next contest since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAR-ARI (o/u at 47.5), DEN-LVR (o/u at 40.5), HOU-KC (o/u at 41.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #11 – There is a dangerous late-season spot for red-hot home teams (on winning streaks of three games or more) in NFL PTD games, and that is when they are not favored by a lot (<7 points) or underdog against a divisional rival. These teams have gone just 20-21 SU and 14-25 ATS (35.9%) dating back to 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE (+1.5 vs IND), GREEN BAY (-6.5 vs CHI)
NFL PTD Betting System #12 – Another winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of four games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 34-42 SU and 28-47 ATS (37.3%) dating back to 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+6.5 at GB), HOUSTON (+3.5 at KC)
NFL PTD Betting System #14 – In NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 22-33 SU and 17-38 ATS (30.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-2.5 at NYJ), HOUSTON (+3.5 at KC)
NFL PTD Betting System #15 – Concerning late-season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only one-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, that favored team is 72-17 SU and 57-30 ATS (65.5%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs DAL)
NFL PTD Betting System #16 – Again on late season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is win advantage of at least four season wins for the home team and they are favored but not by more than 7 points, these hosts boast an incredible 40-6 SU and 35-10 ATS (77.8%) record since Christmas 2016, and are currently riding a 15-game SU and ATS winning streak!
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-5.5 vs CIN)
NFL PTD Betting System #17 – Not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 50-146 SU and 76-117 ATS (39.4%) record since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE (+4.5 at CLE), NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at TB)
NFL PTD Betting System #18 – The truly elite teams have actually been the most unreliable for bettors to back, as teams boasting an 83% or better won-lost record are 62-42 SU but 40-62 ATS (39.2%) in PTD games since 2015, including 13-32 ATS (28.9%) in divisional contests.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-7.5 at LVR)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce-back teams in the next outing, going 29-37 SU but 40-24-2 ATS (62.5%) since 2012.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs WAS)
Teams off of a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 17-21 SU and 14-23-1 ATS (37.8%) in their last 38 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-7 at ATL)
DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 22-40 SU but 39-23 ATS (62.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+6 at BAL)
TURNOVERS ARE KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 20-15 SU but 11-23-1 ATS (32.4%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs WAS), BALTIMORE (-6 vs PIT)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 30-24 SU but 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 54. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 47-29 SU and 44-29-3 ATS (60.3%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs DAL)
· Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last five seasons, going 30-34 SU and 26-37-1 ATS (41.3%).
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3 vs DAL)
· More on totals, there have been 35 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 24-11 rate (68.6%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-DET (o/u at 54.5)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 61-40-2 ATS (60.4%) in their last 103.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 vs HOU)
· SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 14-30 SU and 16-28 ATS (36.4%) in their last 44 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 vs HOU)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-25-1 SU and 18-23-1 ATS (43.9%) in their last 42, but those coming off a win are on a current 31-10 SU and 25-16 ATS (61%) surge.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 vs HOU)
· More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 19-27-1 SU and 20-27 ATS (42.6%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3.5 at KC)
Bad SNF Team Trend
Houston 2-5-2 ATS in the last nine
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3.5 at KC)
Over the total SNF Team Trend
Kansas City 15-10 Over since 2016, combined avg. 51.3 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-KC (o/u at 41.5)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 16-20 SU but 19-16-1 ATS (54.3%) dating back to September 2021. The last 34 of these games have seen Under the total go 23-9-2 (71.9%) as well, games producing just 40 PPG.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+3 vs PHI)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-LAC (o/u at 40.5)
· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 31-31 SU but 20-40-2 ATS (33.3%) in the last 62.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+3 vs PHI)
Under the total MNF Team Trends
LA Chargers 12-3 Under in the last 15
Philadelphia 13-3-1 Under in the last 17
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-LAC (o/u at 40.5)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Dallas 17-9 ATS in the last 26
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3 at DET)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 48-18 SU and 38-26-2 ATS (59.4%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-6 vs PIT), KANSAS CITY (-3.5 vs HOU)
NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 93-22 SU and 73-42 ATS (63.5%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (*if they become favored by 3 points or more at NYJ, -2.5 currently)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 65-15 SU and 51-27-2 ATS (65.4%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7.5 at LVR)
NFL Streaks Betting System #11: NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 51-14 SU and 40-23-2 ATS (63.5%) since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7.5 at LVR)
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same season rematch data over the last 14 seasons
Best NFL rematch teams lately
– Miami 14-6 ATS in the last 20, incl 9-3 in the last 12
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 at NYJ)
– New Orleans: 15-5 SU and 16-4 ATS run
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at TB)
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
– Denver: 7-17 SU and 10-14 ATS in the last 24 tries
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-7.5 at LVR)
– NY Jets: 6-22 SU and 9-18-1 ATS skid
Trend Match (FADE): NY JETS (+2.5 vs MIA)
Best NFL road rematch teams lately
– New Orleans: 17-2 ATS in the last 19 on road
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at TB)
Worst NFL road rematch teams lately
– Denver: 13 straight outright road rematch losses (3-10 ATS)
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-7.5 at LVR)
Best NFL revenge teams lately
– New Orleans: 15-1 ATS stretch in revenge games
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at TB)
Worst NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately
– Denver: 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS in the last 14 facing the team it beat last
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-7.5 at LVR)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: DAL(+3)-DET, IND-JAX(+1.5), MIA-NYJ(+2.5), NO(+8.5)-TB, CHI(+7)-GB)
– Rookie head coaches haven’t been good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade – 160-185-11 ATS (46.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, NY JETS
– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 118-134-4 ATS (46.8%).
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE, NY JETS, NEW ORLEANS, CHICAGO
– After wins, rookie coaches have done measurably worse in that same time frame, 55-77-7 ATS (41.7%) in their last 139.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, JACKSONVILLE, NY JETS, CHICAGO
– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 30-44 SU and 33-41 ATS (44.6%) in the follow-up contest since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, NY JETS
Retread Coach Systems
(Game this week: DEN-LVR(+7.5))
– When coming off a loss, retread coaches have a record of 140-179 ATS (43.9%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS
– Retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 25-19 ATS (56.8%) when having lost an earlier-season game against an opponent. This trend is on a 14-5 ATS run in the last 19 games.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Shedeur Sanders (Cleveland), JJ McCarthy (Minnesota), and Tyler Shough (NO Saints).
(Games this week: WAS-MIN(-2.5), TEN(+4.5)-CLE(-4.5), NO(+8.5)-TB)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in weeks 10-15, as they are just 105-172 SU and 118-148-11 ATS (44.4%) in that time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 144-133 ATS (52%) in home games but just 128-154 ATS (45.4%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 41-112 SU and 64-87-2 ATS (42.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, NEW ORLEANS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 24 games, going 24-135 SU and 64-91-4 ATS (41.3%).
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks have been INCREDIBLE bets in the home favorite role over the last five seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 42-14 SU and 39-16-1 ATS (70.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as small road dogs
Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as small road underdogs, going 22-55 SU but 32-43-2 ATS (42.7%) when catching +4.5 points or fewer.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 52-116 SU and 70-93-4 ATS (42.9%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 56-75 SU but 72-58 ATS (55.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 195 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 60-135 SU and 88-104-2 ATS (45.8%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Jacoby Brissett (Arizona), and Geno Smith (Las Vegas).
(Games this week: PIT(+6)-BAL, LAR-ARI(+7.5), DEN-LVR(+7.5))
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 131-95 SU and 117-98-11 ATS (54.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, LAS VEGAS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 37-37 SU and 48-26 ATS (64.9%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET, BUT WATCH FOR PITTSBURGH at BAL
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 3:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)
These are very good wrap-up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, MIAMI, ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO, LA RAMS, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS, TAMPA BAY, DENVER, CHICAGO, LA RAMS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS, TAMPA BAY, DENVER, CHICAGO, LA RAMS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, SEATTLE, INDIANAPOLIS, DENVER, LA RAMS, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain”, they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, TENNESSEE, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO, HOUSTON
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DALLAS, WASHINGTON, CINCINNATI
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DAL-DET, CIN-BUF, LAR-ARI
UNDER – IND-JAX
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in ’23 and ‘24 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): CIN-BUF
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): WAS-MIN, CIN-BUF
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CHARGERS +3 (+3.0)
2. NY JETS +2.5 (+1.8)
3. WASHINGTON +2.5 (+1.4)
4. PITTSBURGH +6 (+1.0)
5. JACKSONVILLE +1.5 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -5.5 (+4.1)
2. CLEVELAND -3.5 (+3.7)
3. DETROIT -3 (+3.2)
4. SEATTLE -7 (+1.8)
5. LA RAMS -7.5 (+1.7)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS +7.5 (+2.4)
2. ARIZONA +7.5 (+2.0)
3(tie). HOUSTON +3.5 (+1.6)
ATLANTA +7 (+1.6)
5. LA CHARGERS +3 (+1.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -3 (+3.5)
2. TAMPA BAY -8.5 (+1.7)
3. CLEVELAND -3.5 (+0.8)
4. BUFFALO -5.5 (+0.7)
5. INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TEN-CLE OVER 33.5 (+5.7)
2. WAS-MIN OVER 41.5 (+5.1)
2. PIT-BAL OVER 42.5 (+3.5)
4. PHI-LAC OVER 40.5 (+2.5)
5. MIA-NYJ OVER 41.5 (+1.9)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-JAX UNDER 47.5 (-1.2)
2. LAR-ARI UNDER 47.5 (-1.0)
3. CIN-BUF UNDER 47.5 (-1.0)
4. DEN-LVR UNDER 40.5 (-0.8)
5. NO-TB UNDER 42.5 (-0.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CHARGERS +3 (+2.6)
2. LAS VEGAS +7.5 (+2.1)
3. PITTSBURGH +6 (+1.5)
4. ATLANTA +7 (+0.2)
5. NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -3 (+5.7)
2. BUFFALO -5.5 (+4.5)
3. KANSAS CITY -3.5 (+3.6)
4. INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 (+2.5)
5. LA RAMS -7.5 (+2.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WAS-MIN OVER 41.5 (+4.3)
2. HOU-KC OVER 41.5 (+3.3)
3(tie). TEN-CLE OVER 33.5 (+2.0)
CHI-GB OVER 44.5 (+2.0)
5. PIT-BAL OVER 42.5 (+1.9)
This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-JAX UNDER 47.5 (-1.5)
2(tie). NO-TB UNDER 42.5 (-1.1)
DEN-LVR UNDER 40.5 (-1.1)
4. MIA-NYJ UNDER 41.5 (-0.3)
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(101) DALLAS at (102) DETROIT
* Road teams are 3-6 SU but 7-2 ATS in the DAL-DET series since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3 at DET)
(121) WASHINGTON at (122) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs WAS)
(123) MIAMI at (124) NY JETS
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Dolphins-Jets divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-NYJ (o/u at 41.5)
(125) TENNESSEE at (126) CLEVELAND
* CLEVELAND is 5-1 ATS in the last six games versus Tennessee
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs TEN)
(127) PITTSBURGH at (128) BALTIMORE
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between PIT and BAL
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-BAL (o/u at 42.5)
(129) SEATTLE at (130) ATLANTA
* Underdogs are 12-4-1 ATS in the SEA-ATL series since 1997
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+7 vs SEA)
(131) INDIANAPOLIS at (132) JACKSONVILLE
* Over the total has converted in five straight meetings between Indianapolis and Jacksonville
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-JAX (o/u at 47.5)
* JACKSONVILLE is on a historic 16-3-1 ATS run versus divisional foe Indianapolis
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+1.5 vs IND)
(133) CHICAGO at (134) GREEN BAY
* CHICAGO covered both meetings last season, ending a 10-0 ATS run by Green Bay
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CHICAGO (+6.5 at GB)
(135) NEW ORLEANS at (136) TAMPA BAY
* Road teams are 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the NO-TB divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at TB)
(137) DENVER at (138) LAS VEGAS
* Favorites are 4-1 SU and ATS in the Broncos-Raiders divisional set at Las Vegas since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7.5 at LVR)
(139) LA RAMS at (140) ARIZONA
* LA RAMS are 9-1 SU and ATS in the last 10 trips to Arizona, but did lose last time
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-7.5 at ARI)
(141) CINCINNATI at (142) BUFFALO
* CINCINNATI is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings versus Buffalo
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5.5 at BUF)
(143) HOUSTON at (144) KANSAS CITY
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Texans-Chiefs series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-KC (o/u at 41.5)
(145) PHILADELPHIA at (146) LA CHARGERS
* Over the total has converted in all four meetings between Philadelphia and LA Chargers since 2009
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-LAC (o/u at 40.5)
