The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 16. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* CINCINNATI is on an incredible 18-1 SU and 17-2 ATS run as road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-4.5 at MIA) 

* LA RAMS are 11-4 SU and 14-1 ATS in the last 15 same-season road rematches
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+1.5 at SEA) 

* Sunday Night Football teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 14-32 SU and 16-30 ATS (34.8%) in their last 46 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+3 at BAL) 

* NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 67-15 SU and 52-28-2 ATS (65%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 vs JAX)

* Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 18-36 SU and 16-38 ATS (29.6%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+7 at DET) 

* In NFL Post Thanksgiving Day games where there is only a one-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, that favored teams is 74-18 SU and 59-31 ATS (65.6%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 vs NYJ) 

* Favorites are on 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS run in the Bills-Browns series
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-10 at CLE) 

#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen Power Ratings: PHILADELPHIA -6.5 at WAS (projections have line at PHI -10.6) 

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

(101) LA RAMS (11-3) at (102) SEATTLE (11-3)
* LA RAMS are 16-7 SU and 17-5 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018
* LA RAMS are on 24-7 SU and 25-6 ATS December run since 2018
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 39-65 SU and 40-62 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (+1.5 at SEA)

* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 21-12 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* LA RAMS are 58-47 Under the total (55.2%) since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in LAR-SEA (o/u at 42.5) 

(103) GREEN BAY (9-4) at (104) CHICAGO (10-4)
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 25-16-1 SU but 16-26 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
* GREEN BAY is 24-15-1 ATS (61.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-1.5 at CHI)

* CHICAGO is 10-27 SU and 12-25 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO is 33-46-1 ATS (41.8%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB)

* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 18-9 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
* GREEN BAY is 29-12 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): GB-CHI (o/u at 46.5)

(105) PHILADELPHIA (9-5) at (106) WASHINGTON (4-10)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 14-4 SU but 5-12 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
* WASHINGTON is 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) when coming off a SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 18-33 ATS (35.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* WASHINGTON is 14-13 SU and 19-7 ATS when coming off an upset win since 2018
Trends Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs PHI)

* PHILADELPHIA is 22-11 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 23-12 Under the total in his last 35 road games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in PHI-WAS (o/u at 44.5) 

(107) BUFFALO (10-4) at (108) CLEVELAND (3-11)
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott is 11-1 SU but 2-10 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2022
* BUFFALO is 43-31 ATS (58.1%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 34-27 ATS (55.7%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of BUFFALO (-10 at CLE)

* CLEVELAND is 36-47 ATS (43.4%) at home since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+10 vs BUF)

* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 39-23 Under the total on the road since 2018
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 23-16 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in BUF-CLE (o/u at 41.5) 

(109) NY JETS (3-11) at (110) NEW ORLEANS (4-10)
* NY JETS are 14-32 ATS (30.4%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS own ugly 12-51 SU and 21-40 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+4.5 at NO)

* NEW ORLEANS is 22-10 SU and 21-11 ATS when riding a 3-game or more ATS winning streak since 2011
* NEW ORLEANS is 26-47 ATS (35.6%) at home since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 vs NYJ) 

(111) MINNESOTA (6-8) at (112) NY GIANTS (2-12)
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 85-62 SU and 91-55-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* NY GIANTS are 11-8 SU and 14-4 ATS when coming off an upset loss since 2012
Trends Match: 1 PLAY MIN, 1 PLAY NYG

* MINNESOTA is 65-52 Over the total (55.5%) since 2019
* NY GIANTS are 26-9 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in MIN-NYG (o/u at 43.5) 

(113) NEW ENGLAND (11-3) at (114) BALTIMORE (7-7)
* NEW ENGLAND is 19-28-2 ATS (40.4%) as an underdog since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+3 at BAL)

* BALTIMORE is 15-13 SU and 20-7 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7% since 2020
* BALTIMORE’s John Harbaugh is on an 8-4 SU and 9-2 ATS run vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 26-14 SU but 13-26 ATS as a single-digit home favorite since 2018
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-3 vs NE) 

(115) TAMPA BAY (7-7) at (116) CAROLINA (7-7)
* TAMPA BAY is 31-39 ATS (44.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY is 39-55 ATS (41.5%) as a favorite since 2014
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is just 6-14 SU and 5-14 ATS when his team plays with extra rest (>7 days) since 2017
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-3 at CAR)

* CAROLINA is 22-31 ATS (41.5%) at home since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3 vs TB)

* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on 15-4 Under the total run as road favorite
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CAR (o/u at 45.5) 

(117) KANSAS CITY (6-8) at (118) TENNESSEE (2-12)
* KANSAS CITY is 57-43-1 ATS (57%) in road/neutral games since 2014
* KANSAS CITY’s Gardner Minshew is on a 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS surge vs. teams with poor offenses scoring <19 PPG
* TENNESSEE is on a 9-40 SU and 13-35-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 36-51-1 ATS (41.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at TEN)

* KANSAS CITY’s Gardner Minshew is 8-1 Over the total in the last nine following up a game where his team scored <=14 points
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-TEN (o/u at 37.5) 

(119) LA CHARGERS (10-4) at (120) DALLAS (6-7)
* LA CHARGERS are 69-35 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 30-14 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 18-6 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-DAL (o/u at 49.5)

* DALLAS’s Dak Prescott owns a poor 24-31-1 SU and 19-37 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): DALLAS (-2.5 vs LAC) 

(121) ATLANTA (5-9) at (122) ARIZONA (3-11)
* ATLANTA is 59-51 SU but 39-71 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012
* ATLANTA’s Kirk Cousins is 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 games as road favorite
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ATLANTA (-2.5 at ARI)

* ARIZONA is 28-36 ATS (43.8%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 35-24 ATS (59.3%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+2.5 vs ATL) 

(123) JACKSONVILLE (10-4) at (124) DENVER (12-2)
* JACKSONVILLE is on a horrific 7-41 SU and 15-33 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
Trend Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3 at DEN)

* DENVER is 26-40 ATS (39.4%) as a favorite since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-3 vs JAX)

* DENVER is 106-73 Under the total (59.2%) since 2015
* JACKSONVILLE is 45-38 Under the total (54.2%) since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-DEN (o/u at 46.5) 

(125) PITTSBURGH (8-6) at (126) DETROIT (8-6)
* PITTSBURGH is 19-14 SU and 20-12-1 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on a 33-28 SU and 39-19-1 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+7 at DET)

* DETROIT is 27-13-1 ATS (67.5%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is on a 21-14 SU and 23-11-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT is on a 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-7 vs PIT)

* PITTSBURGH is 108-77 Under the total (58.4%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 16-7 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is 16-9 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-DET (o/u at 51.5) 

(127) LAS VEGAS (2-12) at (128) HOUSTON (9-5)
* LAS VEGAS is 39-55 ATS (41.5%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 38-55 ATS (40.9%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+14.5 at HOU)

* LAS VEGAS is 31-9 Over the total vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2013
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 12-2 Under the total streak as a home favorite
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 17-10 Under the total in the last 27 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in LVR-HOU (o/u at 37.5) 

(129) CINCINNATI (4-10) at (130) MIAMI (6-8)
* CINCINNATI is on an incredible 18-1 SU and 17-2 ATS run as road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 58-69 SU but 76-48 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI is 73-61 SU and 81-53 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 20-11 SU and 22-9 ATS (71%) vs. non-divisional AFC foes. The average line was -0.8, Team average PF: 26.3
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-4.5 at MIA)

* MIAMI is on a 37-21 SU and 35-22 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI is 63-34 ATS (64.9%) at home since 2014
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on a 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of MIAMI (+4.5 vs CIN)

* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 13-8 Under the total versus non-divisional AFC foes since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-MIA (o/u at 47.5) 

(131) SAN FRANCISCO (10-4) at (132) INDIANAPOLIS (8-6)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 21-30 ATS (41.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is on a 5-7 SU and 1-11 ATS skid when coming off a home win
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS in the last nine starts following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 12-8 SU but 8-12 ATS in the last 20 vs. teams with lesser records
Trends Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-6 at IND)

NFL Late-Season Betting Systems

NFL PTD Betting System #1 – There have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been -1 to -2.5, they’ve gone 55-39 SU and 53-40 ATS (57%) since ‘15. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 144-85 SU and 111-77 ATS (59%), since New Year’s 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): -1 to -2.5 line range – SEATTLE (-1.5 vs LAR), DALLAS (-2.5 vs LAC)
-3.5 to -7 line range – NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 vs NYJ), DETROIT (-7 vs PIT) 

NFL PTD Betting System #2 – On late-season totals, there has been a PTD opportunity in games with the lowest numbers, as those games with posted totals of 40 or less have gone Over at an 80-66 (54.8%) rate since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): KC-TEN (o/u at 37.5), LVR-HOU (o/u at 37.5) 

NFL PTD Betting System #4 – There has been a sweet spot for betting late-season road favorites in the non-Sunday late-season games recently, and that is in the -3 to -9.5 line range, as these PTD chalk options are 36-7 SU and 27-15 ATS (64.3%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-6.5 at WAS), SAN FRANCISCO (-6 at IND) 

NFL PTD Betting System #7 – NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 54-36 SU and 52-37 ATS (58.4%) in the follow-up game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY (-1.5 at CHI), CAROLINA (+3 vs TB) 

NFL PTD Betting System #8 – Brutal scoring efforts have propelled NFL PTD teams to good success in the next outing, as teams that scored less than 6 points in a late-season games have bounced back with 34-26 SU and 40-18 ATS (69%) record in the follow-up outing since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+10 vs BUF), CINCINNATI (-4.5 at MIA), LAS VEGAS (+14.5 at HOU) 

NFL PTD Betting System #9 – NFL PTD teams scoring less than 17 points in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, particularly as home underdogs, as they are 63-46 Under the total (57.8%) in this situation dating back to 2015.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BUF-CLE (o/u at 41.5), TB-CAR (o/u at 45.5), CIN-MIA (o/u at 47.5)

NFL PTD Betting System #10 – NFL PTD teams allowing 30 points or more in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, going 134-96 UNDER the total (58.3%) in the next contest since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GB-CHI (o/u at 46.5), BUF-CLE (o/u at 41.5), NYJ-NO (o/u at 40.5), ATL-ARI (o/u at 47.5), LVR-HOU (o/u at 37.5), KC-TEN (o/u at 37.5), PIT-DET (o/u at 51.5)

NFL PTD Betting System #11 – There is a dangerous late-season spot for red-hot home teams (on winning streaks of 3 games or more) in NFL PTD games, and that is when they are not favored by a lot (<7 points) or underdog against a divisional rival. These teams have gone just 22-22 SU and 16-26 ATS (38.1%) dating back to 2015.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs LAR)

NFL PTD Betting System #12 – Another winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of 4 games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 35-45 SU and 29-50 ATS (36.7%) dating back to 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE (+3 at DEN), SAN FRANCISCO (-6 at IND) 

NFL PTD Betting System #13 – In NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright but boasting good defensive stats (allowing <21.5 PPG) are 25-37 SU but 40-22 ATS (64.5%).
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at TEN) 

NFL PTD Betting System #15 – Concerning late-season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only a one-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, that favored team is 74-18 SU and 59-31 ATS (65.6%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 vs NYJ)

NFL PTD Betting System #17 – Not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 52-149 SU and 78-120 ATS (39.4%) record since 2015.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+14.5 at HOU) 

NFL PTD Betting System #18 – The truly elite teams have actually been the most unreliable for bettors to back, as teams boasting an 83% or better won-lost record are 64-43 SU but 41-64 ATS (39%) in PTD games since 2015.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-3 vs JAX) 

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams. 

SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 31-37 SU but 42-24-2 ATS (63.6%) since 2012.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-4.5 at MIA), LAS VEGAS (+14.5 at HOU) 

Teams off of a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 19-21 SU and 16-23-1 ATS (41%) in their last 40 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-6.5 at WAS) 

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Similarly to #4 above, NFL teams that have gained an explosive 8.75 yards per play or more in any given game have responded the next week by going just 26-22-1 SU and 18-29-2 ATS (38.3%) in their last 49 tries.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-3 vs NE) 

DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 23-40 SU but 40-23 ATS (63.5%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+10 vs BUF), LAS VEGAS (+14.5 at HOU)

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 30-24 SU but 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 54. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 48-30 SU and 45-30-3 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs LAR)

Good TNF Team Trend
Seattle 11-6 SU and 9-6-2 ATS in the last 17
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs LAR) 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 61-42-2 ATS (59.2%) in their last 105.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-3 vs NE)

SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 14-32 SU and 16-30 ATS (34.8%) in their last 46 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+3 at BAL)

Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-27-1 SU and 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%) in their last 44, but those coming off a win are on a current 31-10 SU and 25-16 ATS (61%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-3 vs NE) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 17-20 SU but 20-16-1 ATS (55.6%) dating back to September 2021. The last 35 of these games have seen Under the total go 24-9-2 (72.7%) as well, games producing just 40 PPG.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+6 vs SF)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-IND (o/u at 46.5)

In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 32-31 SU but 21-40-2 ATS (34.4%) in the last 63.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (+6 vs SF)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 50-42 SU but just 37-53-2 ATS (41.1%) in the last 92 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-6 at IND) 

Good MNF Team Trend
San Francisco 13-7 SU and ATS since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-6 at IND) 

Over the total MNF Team Trend
Indianapolis 7-3 Over in the last 10
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-IND (o/u at 46.5) 

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going OVER or UNDER regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider: 

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Baltimore 29-15 SU and 26-17-1 ATS in the last 44
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-3 vs SF) 

Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
LA Rams 17-7 Under surge
Seattle 12-7 Under in the last 19
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-SEA (o/u at 42.5) 

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 50-21 SU and 40-29-2 ATS (58%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-3 at CAR), KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at TEN)

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-50 SU and 18-45-4 ATS (28.6%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 vs NYJ) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 67-15 SU and 52-28-2 ATS (65%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 vs JAX) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #8: NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but were playing against a team whom they have at least an equal won-lost record with have gone 23-17 SU and ATS (57.5%) in their last 40 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-3 at CAR), KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at TEN) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 66-41 SU but 43-60-4 ATS (41.7%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at TEN) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 13-69 SU but 52-29-1 ATS (64.2%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+14.5 at HOU) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with an 18-2 SU and 13-6-1 ATS (68.4%) record in their last 20 tries.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs LAR)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same season rematch data over the last 14 seasons 

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
Chicago: 5-15 ATS in the last 20
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB) 

Best NFL riad rematch teams lately
LA Rams: 11-4 SU and 14-1 ATS in the last 15 on the road
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+1.5 at SEA)

Worst NFL revenge teams lately
Chicago: 7-21 SU and 9-18-1 ATS in the last 28 revenge tries
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB) 

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England). 

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: GB-CHI(+1.5), NYJ(+4.5)-NO(-4.5), LAC-DAL(-2.5), JAX(+3)-DEN)

Rookie head coaches haven’t been as good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade – 164-187-11 ATS (46.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS

 
In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 121-136-4 ATS (47.1%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO

After wins, rookie coaches have done measurably worse in that same time frame, 58-80-7 ATS (42%) in their last 145.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS, JACKSONVILLE

Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 31-45 SU and 34-42 ATS (44.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2015.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: LVR(+14.5)-HOU, NE(+3)-BAL)

When coming off a loss, retread coaches have a record of 141-180 ATS (43.9%) since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LAS VEGAS, NEW ENGLAND 

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Shedeur Sanders (Cleveland), JJ McCarthy (Minnesota), Tyler Shough (NO Saints), Brady Cook (NY Jets), Quinn Ewers (Miami), and Jaxson Dart (NY Giants).

(Games this week: BUF-CLE(+10), NYJ(+4.5)-NO(-4.5), MIN(-3)-NYG(+3), CIN-MIA(+4.5), KC-TEN(+3.5)) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 146-135 ATS (52%) in home games but just 131-157 ATS (45.5%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 44-115 SU and 67-90-2 ATS (42.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, MINNESOTA 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 25 games, going 25-138 SU and 65-94-4 ATS (40.9%).
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks have been incredible bets in the home favorite role over the last five seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 43-16 SU and 40-18-1 ATS (69%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as small road dogs
Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as small road underdogs, going 23-55 SU and 33-43-2 ATS (43.4%) when catching +4.5 points or fewer.
System Match (FADE): NY JETS

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, non-conference matchups have been best for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 59-77 SU but 75-60 ATS (55.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, NY GIANTS, MIAMI, TENNESSEE

Since 2022, rookie QBs are 21-25 SU but 25-18-3 ATS (58.1%) versus non-conference foes.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY JETS, NEW ORLEANS 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 202 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 63-139 SU and 91-108-2 ATS (45.7%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, NY JETS, NY GIANTS, TENNESSEE, MIAMI 

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, the starters include: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Jacoby Brissett (Arizona), and possibly Geno Smith (Las Vegas). 

(Games this week: ATL-ARI(+2.5), PIT(+7)-DET, LVR(+14.5)-HOU) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
 The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 132-97 SU and 119-99-11 ATS (54.6%).
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 90-82 SU and 94-76-2 ATS (55.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, LAS VEGAS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last four years
Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 18-36 SU and 16-38 ATS (29.6%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to string win streaks together recently
In their last 68 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 31-37 SU and 25-42-1 ATS (37.3%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 2:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)

These are very good wrap up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the ’25 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO, BUFFALO, NY GIANTS, TENNESSEE, ATLANTA, DENVER, LAS VEGAS, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO, CAROLINA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO, TAMPA BAY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, LA CHARGERS, DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL consistently has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BUFFALO, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, LAS VEGAS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO, SAN FRANCISCO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, CINCINNATI

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GB-CHI, LAC-DAL, CIN-MIA, ATL-ARI, JAX-DEN, PIT-DET, NE-BAL, SF-IND 

DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): LAC-DAL, ATL-ARI, JAX-DEN, PIT-DET, SF-IND

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): LAR-SEA

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +4.5 (+2.9)
2. ARIZONA +2.5 (+2.7)
3. LA RAMS +1.5 (+2.5)
4. NEW ENGLAND +3 (+2.3)
5. CAROLINA +3 (+1.8) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (+4.1)
2. NEW ORLEANS -4.5 (+0.5)
3. GREEN BAY -1.5 (+0.3)
4(tie). MINNESOTA -3 (+0.1)
HOUSTON -14.5 (+0.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TENNESSEE +3.5 (+3.8)
2. ARIZONA +2.5 (+3.5)
3. CLEVELAND +10 (+2.2)
4. CAROLINA +3 (+2.0)
5. LAS VEGAS +14.5 (+1.9) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN FRANCISCO -6 (+3.3)
2. PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (+1.5)
3. CINCINNATI -4.5 (+1.0)
4. DENVER -3 (+0.7)
5. GREEN BAY -1.5 (+0.4) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAR-SEA OVER 42.5 (+3.3)
2(tie). BUF-CLE OVER 41.5 (+2.9)
NYJ-NO OVER 40.5 (+2.9)
MIN-NYG OVER 43.5 (+2.9)
5. LVR-HOU OVER 37.5 (+1.9) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-DAL UNDER 49.5 (-1.3)
2. SF-IND UNDER 46.5 (-1.1)
3. TB-CAR UNDER 45.5 (-0.9)
4. GB-CHI UNDER 46.5 (-0.3)
5. ATL-ARI UNDER 47.5 (-0.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANAPOLIS +6 (+5.6)
2. LAS VEGAS +14.5 (+4.4)
3. NY GIANTS +3 (+3.5)
4. CLEVELAND +10 (+3.1)
5. LA RAMS +1.5 (+2.9) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY -1.5 (+3.9)
2. KANSAS CITY -3.5 (+3.2)
3. PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (+2.9)
4. DALLAS -2.5 (+0.9)
5. DENVER -3 (+0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAR-SEA OVER 42.5 (+7.1)
2. LVR-HOU OVER 37.5 (+2.5)
3. LAC-DAL OVER 49.5 (+2.1)
4. ATL-ARI OVER 47.5 (+1.6)
5. MIN-NYG OVER 43.5 (+1.3) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-WAS UNDER 44.5 (-5.3)
2. SF-IND UNDER 46.5 (-3.7)
3(tie). NE-BAL UNDER 48.5 (-1.8)
TB-CAR UNDER 45.5 (-1.8)
5. CIN-MIA UNDER 47.5 (-1.6) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(101) LA RAMS at (102) SEATTLE
* Under the total is 10-3 in the last 13 of the Rams-Seahawks divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-SEA (o/u at 42.5)

* LA RAMS are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Seattle
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+1.5 at SEA) 

(103) GREEN BAY at (104) CHICAGO
* GREEN BAY is 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 trips to Chicago, but did lose ATS last year
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-1.5 at CHI) 

(105) PHILADELPHIA at (106) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the PHI-WAS divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-WAS (o/u at 44.5) 

(107) BUFFALO at (108) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are on 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS run in the BUF-CLE series
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-10 at CLE) 

(109) NY JETS at (110) NEW ORLEANS
* Road teams are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in the NYJ-NO non-conference series since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+4.5 at NO) 

(111) MINNESOTA at (112) NY GIANTS
* MINNESOTA is 6-2 ATS in the last eight trips to MetLife Stadium to play NYG
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3 at NYG) 

(113) NEW ENGLAND at (114) BALTIMORE
* Over the total has converted in all five meetings between NE and BAL at Baltimore since 1996
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NE-BUF (o/u at 48.5) 

(115) TAMPA BAY at (116) CAROLINA
* Over the total is 8-3 in the last 11 of the Bucs-Panthers divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-CAR (o/u at 45.5)

(117) KANSAS CITY at (118) TENNESSEE
* TENNESSEE is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS versus Kansas City since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+3.5 vs KC) 

(119) LA CHARGERS at (120) DALLAS
* Road teams are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight of the Chargers-Cowboys series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+2.5 at DAL) 

(121) ATLANTA at (122) ARIZONA
* Over the total is 7-1 in the Falcons-Cardinals series at Arizona since 1995
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-ARI (o/u at 47.5) 

(123) JACKSONVILLE at (124) DENVER
* Road teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight non-neutral matchups between Jacksonville and Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+3 at DEN) 

(125) PITTSBURGH at (126) DETROIT
* Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in last nine of the PIT-DET series
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+7 at DET) 

(127) LAS VEGAS at (128) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Raiders-Texans series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LVR-HOU (o/u at 37.5) 

(129) CINCINNATI at (130) MIAMI
* Home teams are 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six of the CIN-MIA set
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+5.5 vs CIN)

* Under the total is 6-1-1 in the last eight of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-MIA (o/u at 47.5) 

(131) SAN FRANCISCO at (132) INDIANAPOLIS
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the SF-IND series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-6 at IND)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR