The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 2. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

* Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are an impressive 36-18-1 SU and ATS (66.7%) since ’03 (+16.2 units, ROI: 30%, Grade 65)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+12.5 at BAL), LA CHARGERS (-3 at LVR)

* Teams playing a second straight home game in Week 2 and are favored have gone 14-10 SU but 5-19 ATS (20.8%) over the last 3 seasons (-15.9 units, ROI: -66.3%, Grade 70)
System Match (FADE ATS): GREEN BAY (-3 vs WAS)

* MIAMI is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last nine versus divisional foe New England (also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 when hosting NE)
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 vs NE)

* Sunday Night Football teams coming off losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 11-26 SU and 12-25 ATS (32.4%) in their last 37 tries against teams off a win.  
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+3.5 at MIN)

* DETROIT is on a 10-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs CHI)

* Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 15-23 SU and 11-27 ATS (28.9%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-3 vs SEA)

* In Weeks 1-3, teams with a rookie starting quarterback have seen their game totals go Under at a 29-11 (72.5%) rate in the last 40 such contests.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAR-TEN (o/u at 41.5), ATL-MIN (o/u at 44.5)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen Power Ratings: INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 vs Denver (projections have line at Indianapolis -1.4)

NFL Betting Systems Turn Week 1 Results Into Week 2 Profit

These systems take into account the NFL Week 1 results and use them to build actionable betting concepts for Week 2

1. Week 2 teams that scored 30+ points last week and are now playing as favorites of 6 points or less or are underdogs are 20-38 SU and 22-36 ATS (37.9%) since 2012 (-17.6 units, ROI: -30.3%, Grade 66)
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-3 vs SEA), NY JETS (+7 vs BUF), INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5 vs DEN)

2. Teams that beat their Week 1 point spread by 8 points or more in non-conference games are 22-11-3 Under (66.7%) the total in Week 2 since 2002 (+9.9 units, ROI: 30%, Grade 64)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-CIN (o/u at 48.5)

3. Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 41-21-1 Under (66.1%) the total in Week 2 since ’05 (+16.8 units, ROI: 27.1%, Grade 65)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): JAX-CIN (o/u at 48.5), BUF-NYJ (o/u at 46.5), SEA-PIT (o/u at 40.5), ATL-MIN (o/u at 44.5), TB-HOU (o/u at 42.5)

4. Teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 50-29-3 ATS (63.3%) in Week 2 over the last 13 seasons (+18.1 units, ROI: 22.9%, Grade 62)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-1.5 vs NE), CAROLINA (+6.5 at ARI), NY GIANTS (+5.5 at DAL), DETROIT (-5.5 vs CHI)

5. Teams whose opponents played in the weeknight season opening games of Thursday and Friday and thus have extra rest are 17-25 SU but 25-16-1 ATS (61%) in Week 2 since ’05 (+7.4 units, ROI: 18%, Grade 57)
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): NY GIANTS (+5.5 at DAL), LAS VEGAS (+3 vs LAC)

6. In Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a phenomenal run of 20-23 SU but 28-13-2 ATS (68.3%) since 2014 (+14.6 units, ROI: 35.6%, Grade 64)
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): NEW ENGLAND (+1.5 at MIA), CHICAGO (+5.5 at DET), SEATTLE (+3 at PIT), KANSAS CITY (+1.5 vs PHI)

7. In Week 2 games between teams that are both 1-0 ATS, underdogs also rule at the betting window, 22-27 SU but 30-18-1 ATS (62.5%) since 2012 (+10.2 units, ROI: 21.3%, Grade 60)
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): WASHINGTON (+3 at GB), TENNESSEE (+5.5 vs LAR), NY JETS (+6.5 vs BUF), LAS VEGAS (+3 vs LAC)

8. Teams playing a second straight home game in Week 2 and are favored have gone 14-10 SU but 5-19 ATS (20.8%) over the last 13 seasons (-15.9 units, ROI: -66.3%, Grade 70)
System Match (FADE ATS): GREEN BAY (-3 vs WAS)

9. Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are an impressive 36-18-1 SU and ATS (66.7%) since 2003 (+16.2 units, ROI: 30%, Grade 65)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+12.5 at BAL), LA CHARGERS (-3 at LVR)

10. Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 15-16-1 SU and 21-10-1 ATS (67.8%) in Week 2 since 2004 (+10 units, ROI: 32.3%, Grade 63)
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): CLEVELAND (+12.5 at BAL), NY GIANTS (+5.5 at DAL), CHICAGO (+5.5 at DET)

11. Teams that lost (or tied) as road favorites in week have bounced back with a record of 21-12 SU and ATS (63.6%) in Week 2 over the last 13 seasons (+7.8 units, ROI: 23.6%, Grade 60)
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-12.5 vs CLE)

12. Week 2 teams that went Under their Week 1 total by at least 17 points are 27-17 Over (61.4%) the total since 2008 (+9.3 units, ROI: 21.1%, Grade 56)
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WAS-GB (o/u at 48.5), NYG-DAL (o/u at 44.5), LAR-TEN (o/u at 41.5), TB-HOU (o/u at 42.5) 

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 3:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)

– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)

– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)

– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)

These are very good wrap up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, LA RAMS, DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO, ARIZONA, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, HOUSTON

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, CLEVELAND, DALLAS, NY JETS, DETROIT, LAS VEGAS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%). 
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, BALTIMORE, DALLAS, BUFFALO, DETROIT, LA CHARGERS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA RAMS, PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA RAMS, BUFFALO, SAN FRANCISCO, DENVER, PHILADELPHIA, LA CHARGERS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain”, they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY, ATLANTA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WAS-GB, BUF-NYJ, PHI-KC, LAC-LVR
UNDER – JAX-CIN, CHI-DET

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for handle has also produced a 74-62 (54.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NE-MIA, CHI-DET, SEA-PIT, DEN-IND, TB-HOU

DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in ’23 and ‘24 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): BUF-NYJ, PHI-KC, LAC-LVR

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): JAX-CIN, CAR-ARI

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

(103) WASHINGTON at (104) GREEN BAY
* WASHINGTON is 26-13-1 ATS (66.7%) when coming off a SU win since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+3 at GB)

* GREEN BAY is 92-20 SU and 71-39 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 19-13 SU but 12-20 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-3 vs WAS)

* WASHINGTON is 27-10 Over the total when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 13-5 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): WAS-GB (o/u at 48.5)

(251) NEW ENGLAND at (252) MIAMI
* NEW ENGLAND is 16-26-2 ATS (38.1%) as an underdog since 2021
* MIAMI is on a 33-17 SU and 32-17 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovalioa is 25-8 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) in home games. The average line was -3.8, Team average PF: 24.9
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 10-0 SU and 9-0-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
* MIAMI is 36-23 ATS (61%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 vs NE)

(253) JACKSONVILLE at (254) CINCINNATI
* CINCINNATI is 72-56 SU and 78-50 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on a 12-9 SU and 15-6 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor boasts a 21-5 SU and 18-6 ATS record as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2022
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 19-10 SU and 20-9 ATS (69%) vs. non-divisional AFC foes. The average line was -0.9, Team average PF: 25.8
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-3.5 vs JAX)

* JACKSONVILLE is 40-30 Under the total (57.1%) since 2021
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 13-6 Under the total versus non-divisional AFC foes since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-CIN (o/u at 48.5)

(255) CLEVELAND at (256) BALTIMORE
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 17-7 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* CLEVELAND’s Joe Flacco is 20-4 Under the total with his team coming off a divisional loss since 2012
* CLEVELAND’s Joe Flacco is 18-7 Under the total in starts versus divisional foes since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-BAL (o/u at 45.5)

* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is on a 9-6 SU and ATS run when coming off an outright home loss
* CLEVELAND is 22-39 ATS (36.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of CLEVELAND (+12.5 at BAL)

* BALTIMORE is 27-13 SU but 14-25 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 31-9 SU and 26-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 10-4 SU but 4-10 ATS in L14 games vs. poor teams with a winning percentage <=33%
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADEs of BALTIMORE (-12.5 vs CLE)

(257) NY GIANTS at (258) DALLAS
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 20-8 UNDER the total surge as a single-digit underdog
* NY GIANTS are 56-28 UNDER the total (66.7%) since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-DAL (o/u at 44.5)

* DALLAS is 18-1 SU and 16-3 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2017
* DALLAS is 25-8 SU and 23-10 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 17-6 SU and ATS when his team is playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-5.5 vs NYG)

(259) LA RAMS at (260) TENNESSEE
* LA RAMS are 15-18 ATS (45.5%) vs. non-conference foes since 2018
* LA RAMS are 52-40 Under the total (56.5%) since 2020
Trends Match: FADE LA RAMS (-5.5 at TEN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41.5)

* TENNESSEE is on a 7-29 SU and 8-27-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trend Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+5.5 vs LAR)

(261) BUFFALO at (262) NY JETS
* BUFFALO is 30-24 ATS (55.6%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 34-21 Under the total on the road since 2018
Trends Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-6.5 at NYJ), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)

* NY JETS are 20-34 ATS (37%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 11-27 SU and 15-21-2 ATS (41.7%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.1, Team average PF: 19.9
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+6.5 vs BUF)

(263) CHICAGO at (264) DETROIT
* CHICAGO is 21-11 SU and 21-10 ATS vs. poor defenses allowing >=27 PPG since 2015
* CHICAGO is 23-35-1 ATS (39.7%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO is 28-46 ATS (37.8%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 28-43-1 ATS (39.4%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 4 FADES of CHICAGO (+5.5 at DET)

* DETROIT is 23-10-1 ATS (69.7%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 47-21-1 ATS (69.1%) overall since 2021
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 7-12 SU and 8-11 ATS skid vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33%
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 10-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 16-6 SU and 16-5-1 ATS in divisional games since 2021
Trends Match: 4 PLAYS, 1 FADE of DETROIT (-5.5 vs CHI)

(265) SEATTLE at (266) PITTSBURGH
* SEATTLE is 35-25 ATS (58.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 22-16-1 ATS (57.9%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* SEATTLE is 37-28 ATS (56.9%) as an underdog since 2016
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 7-17 SU and ATS (29.2%) as a road underdog. The average line was +7.4, Team average PF: 16.5
Trends Match: 3 PLAYS, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (+3 at PIT)

* PITTSBURGH is 24-6 SU and 23-7 ATS coming off a game allowing 30+ points since 2013
* PITTSBURGH is 31-17 SU but 14-32 ATS vs. poor offenses scoring <19 PPG since 2011
* PITTSBURGH is 23-31 ATS (42.6%) as a favorite since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of PITTSBURGH (-3 vs SEA)

* SEATTLE is 21-9 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2011
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 27-11 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
* PITTSBURGH is 102-70 Under the total (59.3%) since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER the total (o/u at 40.5)

(267) SAN FRANCISCO at (268) NEW ORLEANS
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 43-28 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-NO (o/u at 40.5)

* NEW ORLEANS is 24-43 ATS (35.8%) at home since 2017
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 13-3 SU and ATS in its last 16 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* SAN FRANCISCO is 36-30 ATS (54.5%) when coming off a SU win since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at NO)

(269) CAROLINA at (270) ARIZONA
* CAROLINA is on a 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5
* CAROLINA is 20-33 ATS (37.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+6.5 at ARI)

* ARIZONA is 40-19 SU and 37-22 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2012
* ARIZONA is 27-30 ATS (47.4%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 20-32 ATS (38.5%) as a favorite since 2016
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 12-2 SU and ATS in their last 14 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is just 5-10 SU and ATS in his last 15 starts as a favorite
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 3 FADES of ARIZONA (-6.5 vs CAR)

* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 10-1 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is on 7-3 Under the total run with his team coming off a double-digit loss
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total in CAR-ARI (o/u at 43.5)

(271) DENVER at (272) INDIANAPOLIS
* DENVER is 24-34 ATS (41.4%) as a favorite since 2017
* INDIANAPOLIS is 16-18 SU and 23-11 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015
* INDIANAPOLIS is 24-22 SU and 32-13 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5 vs DEN)

* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 32-14 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
* DENVER is 99-67 Under the total (59.6%) since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-IND (o/u at 42.5)

(273) PHILADELPHIA at (274) KANSAS CITY
* PHILADELPHIA is 21-8 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 19-9 Under the total in his last 28 road games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total in PHI-KC (o/u at 46.5)

* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 10-3 SU but 1-11-1 ATS in his last 13 games vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on a 15-3 SU and 12-5 ATS surge in non-conference games
* KANSAS CITY is 17-8 ATS (68%) as an underdog since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+1.5 vs PHI)

(275) ATLANTA at (276) MINNESOTA
* ATLANTA is on a 10-19 SU and 6-23 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+3.5 at MIN)

* MINNESOTA is 21-11 SU but only 10-22 ATS in its last 32 games as a home favorite
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-3.5 vs ATL)
* MINNESOTA is 58-46 Over the total (55.8%) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-MIN (o/u at 44.5)

(277) TAMPA BAY at (278) HOUSTON
* TAMPA BAY is on 26-8 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on an 8-1 Under the total streak as a home favorite
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 13-5 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER the total in TB-HOU (o/u at 42.5)

* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is just 5-12 SU and 4-12 ATS when his team plays with extra rest (>7 days) since 2017
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 9-17 SU but 17-9 ATS as a road underdog since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TAMPA BAY (+2.5 at HOU)

(279) LA CHARGERS at (280) LAS VEGAS
* LA CHARGERS are 62-33 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS’s Jim Harbaugh is on 10-2 Under the total surge vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-LVR (o/u at 46.5)

* LA CHARGERS’s Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 31-9 SU and 28-10 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-3 at LVR)

* LAS VEGAS is 7-5 SU and 11-1 ATS when coming off a game allowing <=14 points since 2020
* LAS VEGAS is 25-16 ATS (61%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+3 vs LAC)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as retread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: NYG-DAL(-5.5), BUF-NYJ(+7), JAX(+3.5)-CIN, SF-NO(+3), CHI(+5.5)-DET)

– Rookie head coaches haven’t been good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade – 148-174-10 ATS (46%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, NY JETS, NEW ORLEANS

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 27-114 SU (19.3%) and 67-74 ATS (47.5%) when catching 7 points or more since 2017.
System Match (FADE): NY JETS

– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 112-126-4 ATS (47.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, NY JETS, CHICAGO

– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together. After wins, they’ve gone just 43-67-6 ATS (39.1%) since December 2020.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: NE(+1.5)-MIA, LAC-LVR(+3))

– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2015, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 99-132 ATS (42.9%), while in Weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 81-74 ATS (52.3%). It seems what it takes some time for these coaches to find their footing in their new homes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS

– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 135-173 ATS (43.8%) since 2015
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2025 include Cam Ward (Tennessee) and JJ McCarthy (Minnesota), although others could join them down the road.

(Games this week: LAR-TEN(+5.5), ATL-MIN(-3.5))

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Rookie quarterbacks have gotten off to slow starts of late 
As part of their overall recent struggles, rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early-season starters, going 7-24-1 SU and 13-18-1 ATS (41.9%) in their last 32 Week 1-3 games. They are also on a 29-11 Under the total (72.5%) run in their last 40 such contests.

  • System Matches: FADE TENNESSEE, FADE MINNESOTA
  • Also PLAY UNDER the total in: LAR-TEN (o/u at 41.5), ATL-MIN (o/u at 44.5)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks have been incredible bets in the home favorite role over the last five seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-11 SU and 38-13-1 ATS (74.5%)
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, rookie starting quarterbacks have done well against non-divisional foes
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 54-64 SU but 68-49 ATS (58.1%).

  • System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
  • Since 2022, rookie QBs are 19-15 SU and 20-11-3 ATS (64.5%) versus non-conference foes.
    System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 166 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 53-113 SU and 75-88-2 ATS (46%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This year, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Russell Wilson (NY Giants), and Geno Smith (Las Vegas).

(Games this week: SEA-PIT(-3), NYG(+5.5)-DAL, LAC-LVR(+3))

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Veteran quarterbacks start slow for their new teams
It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in the month of September, these guys have gone 44-28-1 Under the total (61.1%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SEA-PIT (o/u at 40.5), NYG-DAL (o/u at 44.5), LAC-LVR (o/u at 46.5)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new team
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 26-40 SU and 26-39-1 ATS (40%) in their last 66 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 10-20-1 ATS (33.3%) in their last 31 Monday Night contests.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 125-78 SU and 107-85-11 ATS (55.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, LAS VEGAS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last four years
Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 15-23 SU and 11-27 ATS (28.9%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
In their last 55 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 28-27 SU and 22-32-1 ATS (40.7%). This trend dates back to 2021. 
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, LAS VEGAS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 36-31 SU and 45-22 ATS (67.2%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NFL teams that have gained an explosive 8.75 yards per play or more in any given game have responded the next week by going just 24-22-1 SU and 16-29-2 ATS (35.6%) in their last 47 tries. 
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-12.5 vs CLE)

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday NIGHT games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games. 

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 25-22 SU but 15-30-2 ATS (33.3%) in the last 47. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 44-27 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-3 vs WAS

Good TNF Team Trends
Green Bay 7-5 SU and 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-3 vs WAS

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 24-14 SU and 17-21 ATS (44.7%) in their last 38 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MINNESOTA (-3.5 vs ATL)
SNF teams coming off losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 11-26 SU and 12-25 ATS (32.4%) in their last 37 tries against teams off a win.  
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+3.5 at MIN)
Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-8 SU and 22-14 ATS (61.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3.5 vs ATL)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 14-18 SU and 17-14-1 ATS (54.8%) dating back to September 2021. The last 30 of these games have seen Under the total go 21-7-2 (75%) as well, games producing just 39.5 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY LAS VEGAS (+3 vs LAC), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)

In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-28 SU but 16-37-2 ATS (30.2%) in the last 55.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs TB)

Home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 16-16 SU and 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%) in their last 32 tries.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+3 vs LAC)

In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 11-15 SU and 16-10 ATS (61.5%) in their last 26 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs TB)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 42-36 SU but just 29-47-2 ATS (38.2%) in the last 78 MNF games not matching teams with identical records. 
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+2.5 at HOU)

Under the total MNF Team Trend
LA Chargers 11-3 Under in the last 14
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-LVR (o/u at 46.5)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Green Bay 18-8 SU and 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-3 vs WAS)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Tampa Bay 10-20 SU and 8-22 ATS in the last 30
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+2.5 at HOU)
Washington 14-22 and 13-22-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+3 at GB)

Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Atlanta 14-2 to the Under in the last 16
Minnesota 25-13 Under primetime record since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIN (o/u at 44.5)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 (+3.9)
2. KANSAS CITY +1.5 (+2.3)
3. TAMPA BAY +2.5 (+1.8)
4. TENNESSEE +5.5 (+0.5)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -5.5 (+2.6)
2. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+2.3)
3. CINCINNATI -3.5 (+1.4)
4(tie). ARIZONA -6.5 (+1.2)
BALTIMORE -12.5 (+1.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS +7 (+2.4)
2. CHICAGO +5.5 (+2.1)
3. JACKSONVILLE +3.5 (+1.9)
4. NY GIANTS +5.5 (+1.4)
5. NEW ENGLAND +1.5 (+0.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -12.5 (+4.5)
2. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+2.8)
3. LA CHARGERS -3 (+2.1)
4. PITTSBURGH -3 (+1.6)
5. GREEN BAY -3 (+1.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). BUF-NYJ OVER 46.5 (+0.9)
DEN-IND OVER 42.5 (+0.9)
3(tie). CLE-BAL OVER 45.5 (+0.8)
CHI-DET OVER 46.5 (+0.8)
5. CAR-ARI OVER 43.5 (+0.7)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-LVR UNDER 46.5 (-1.1)
2. PHI-KC UNDER 46.5 (-0.5)
3. NE-MIA UNDER 43.5 (-0.4)
4. NYG-DAL UNDER 44.5 (-0.3)
5. ATL-MIN UNDER 44.5 (-0.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 (+3.4)
2(tie). KANSAS CITY +1.5 (+1.2)
TAMPA BAY +2.5 (+1.2)
4. CHICAGO +12.5 (+0.9)
5. NEW ENGLAND +1.5 (+0.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN FRANCISCO -3 (+2.7)
2. DALLAS -5.5 (+2.2)
3. DETROIT -5.5 (+1.8)
4. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+1.7)
5. GREEN BAY -3 (+1.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-IND OVER 42.5 (+4.4)
2. PHI-KC OVER 46.5 (+3.5)
3. TB-HOU OVER 42.5 (+2.9)
4. CAR-ARI OVER 43.5 (+2.4)
5(tie). BUF-NYJ OVER 46.5 (+1.9)
SEA-PIT OVER 40.5 (+1.9)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYG-DAL UNDER 44.5 (-3.8)
2. LAC-LVR UNDER 46.5 (-2.5)
3. NE-MIA UNDER 43.5 (-1.6)
4. SF-NO UNDER 40.5 (-1.1)
5. CLE-BAL UNDER 45.5 (-0.5)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(103) WASHINGTON at (104) GREEN BAY
* Home teams are 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in the WAS-GB series since 2001
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-3 vs WAS)

(251) NEW ENGLAND at (252) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last nine versus divisional foe New England (also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 when hosting NE)
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 vs NE)

(253) JACKSONVILLE at (254) CINCINNATI
* Road teams are on a 5-2-1 ATS run in the JAX-CIN series
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 at CIN)

(255) CLEVELAND at (256) BALTIMORE
* Over the total has converted in three straight meetings between CLE and BAL
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-BAL (o/u at 45.5)

(257) NY GIANTS at (258) DALLAS
* Over the total is 6-0 in the last six of the NYG-DAL divisional series at AT&T Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYG-DAL (o/u at 44.5)

(259) LA RAMS at (260) TENNESSEE
* TENNESSEE is 6-0-1 ATS in the series with LAR since 1999
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+5.5 vs LAR)

(261) BUFFALO at (262) NY JETS
* Home teams are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 of the BUF-NYJ divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+6.5 vs BUF)

(263) CHICAGO at (264) DETROIT
* Underdogs are 1-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in the last six of the CHI-DET NFC North rivalry at Ford Field
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+5.5 at DET)

(265) SEATTLE at (266) PITTSBURGH
* Over the total is 4-0 in the SEA-PIT non-conference series since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-PIT (o/u at 40.5)

(267) SAN FRANCISCO at (268) NEW ORLEANS
* SAN FRANCISCO is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games versus New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at NO)

(269) CAROLINA at (270) ARIZONA
* CAROLINA is 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight meetings with Arizona
* Over the total is 6-1-1 in the last eight of the CAR-ARI series
Trends Match: PLAY CAROLINA (+6.5 at ARI), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 43.5)

(271) DENVER at (272) INDIANAPOLIS
* DENVER is 4-1 ATS in the last five games with Indianapolis
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 at IND)

(273) PHILADELPHIA at (274) KANSAS CITY
* Over the total is 8-3 in the PHI-KC series since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-KC (o/u at 46.5)

(275) ATLANTA at (276) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games versus Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3.5 vs ATL)

(277) TAMPA BAY at (278) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON has won and covered all three instances of hosting TB since 2007
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs TB)

(279) LA CHARGERS at (280) LAS VEGAS
* Favorites are on a 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS surge in the LAC-LVR AFC West rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-3 at LVR)

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