The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

-Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 26-25 SU but 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS (-1 vs. CHI), NY GIANTS (+6 at CLE), TENNESSEE (-3 vs. GB), CAROLINA (+5.5 at LVR), BALTIMORE (-1.5 at DAL), LA RAMS (+7 vs. SF), CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. WAS)

-Rookie Quarterbacks are also on a 26-9 Under the total (74.3%) run in their last 35 Week 1-3 contests.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHICAGO-IND (o/u at 43.5), DENVER-TB (o/u at 40), WASHINGTON-CIN (o/u at 48) 

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NFL teams that beat a point spread by 32 points or more in any given game have gone just 17-15 SU and 10-22 ATS (31.3%) when playing at home the next week since 2012.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+3 vs. DET)

-Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 18-7 SU and ATS (72%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-1 vs. CHI), MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs. HOU), NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs. PHI)

Kansas City 18-5 Over surge in road primetime games
System Match: PLAY OVER in KC-ATL (o/u at 46.5)

* UNDERDOGS have won the last six ATS in the JAC-BUF series
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS (+5 at BUF) 

This week’s #1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTOR RATINGS projections: LAC-PIT OVER 36 (+3.5)

Avoid These Week 3 NFL Traps

These are NFL betting trend systems that look at the Week 3 slate while considering what the teams have accomplished in their first two games.

Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 26-25 SU but 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS (-1 vs. CHI), NY GIANTS (+6 at CLE), TENNESSEE (-3 vs. GB), CAROLINA (+5.5 at LVR), BALTIMORE (-1.5 at DAL), LA RAMS (+7 vs. SF), CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. WAS)

 Winless teams in the NFL are 20-35-1 SU but 36-20 ATS (64.3%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY GIANTS (+6 at CLE), CAROLINA (+5.5 at LVR), DENVER (+6.5 at TB), LA RAMS (+7 vs. SF), JACKSONVILLE (+5 at BUF)

Teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in Week 3 with a record of 26-16 SU and 27-15 ATS (64.3%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 at NO)

The league’s best defensive teams after two weeks, or those allowing 14 PPG or less so far, are 25-21 SU but just 14-31-1 ATS (31.1%) in Week 3 since 2005 when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET (watch for PITTSBURGH vs. LAC)

Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 18-7 SU and ATS (72%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-1 vs. CHI), MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs. HOU), NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs. PHI)

Since 2008, the league’s best undefeated teams after two weeks, those having outscored teams by 25 points or more, are 25-22 SU but 16-29-2 ATS (35.6%) in Week 3.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS (+1.5 at PIT), MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs. HOU), NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs. PHI), BUFFALO (-5 vs. JAX)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic NFL betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Now, here are the NFL betting trend systems with updated language and records heading into the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, LAS VEGAS, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO, KANSAS CITY, BUFFALO, CINCINNATI

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, SAN FRANCISCO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, SAN FRANCISCO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, TENNESSEE, LAS VEGAS, MIAMI, BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, DETROIT, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO, KANSAS CITY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LA CHARGERS, MIAMI 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) and 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, KANSAS CITY, BUFFALO, CINCINNATI

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with less season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, INDIANAPOLIS, MIAMI, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2022 was 44.2, last year it dropped over a point to 43.0. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors rebounded incredibly in 2023, after going 28-53 ATS in 2022, they were. 44-24 ATS (64.7%) last year! We’ll see how that latter trend holds in 2024.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING ALL): OVER – HOU-MIN, PHI-NO, DET-ARI, BAL-DAL, KC-ATL
UNDER – WAS-CIN 

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of BETS has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NE-NYJ, LAC-PIT, NYG-CLE, DEN-TB, GB-TEN, MIA-SEA, SF-LAR, KC-ATL, JAX-BUF 

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-MIN, PHI-NO, CAR-LVR, DET-ARI, WAS-CIN

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): CAR-LVR

NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems

This NFL betting trend material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: NE(+6)-NYJ, CAR(+5.5)-LVR, GB-TEN(-3), MIA-SEA(-4.5))

– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 152-170-9 ATS (47.2%). Road/Neutral games – 173-151-8 ATS (53.4%).
System Matches: PLAY ROAD TEAMS– NEW ENGLAND, CAROLINA
FADE HOME TEAMS – TENNESSEE, SEATTLE 

– Ironically, its in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+6.5 to -6.5 lines) where rookie head coaches enjoy better point spread success rates. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 237-235-2 SU & 237-224-13 ATS (51.4%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE

– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2013: Divisional games 112-122-6 ATS (47.9%), Conference games 123-117-4 ATS (51.3%), Non-conference games 90-81-7 ATS (52.6%). These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE
FADE – NEW ENGLAND 

– Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 82-80-8 ATS, good for 50.6%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 152-159-9 ATS (48.9%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 91-82-2 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE

–  When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 191-178-6 ATS (51.8%) since 2014. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse, 132-139-11 ATS (48.8%).
System Matches: PLAY – NEW ENGLAND, CAROLINA, TENNESSEE
FADE – SEATTLE 

Re-Tread Coach Systems

(Games this week: LAC(+1.5)-PIT, KC-ATL(+3.5), WAS(+7.5)-CIN))

– Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 78-112 ATS (41.1%). Road/Neutral games – 94-102 ATS (48%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON 

– Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 78-64 SU but just 44-87-11 ATS, for 33.6%! As dogs (or pick em), 79-181 SU and 128-127-5 ATS (50.2%).
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY UNDERDOGS – LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON

– The ATS results by game type are almost identical for the Division (44.9%)/Conference (44.0%)/ Non-conference (43.4%) scenarios for re-tread head coaches in their first seasons with new teams over the last decade. 

– Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2014, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 85-133-6 ATS (39%), while in weeks #11 & later, they’ve gone 87-81-10 ATS (51.8%).
System Matches: FADE – LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON 

– Since 2014, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 68-73 ATS (48.2%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 103-139 ATS (42.6%) in that same time span.
System Matches: FADE – LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON, ATLANTA

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These NFL betting trend systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2024 include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road.

(Games this week: CHI(+1.5)-IND, DEN(+6.5)-TB, WAS(+7.5)-CIN))

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
· Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 169-304-2 SU (35.7%) and 222-247-6 ATS (47.3%). Furthermore, this past season saw the #1 pick, Bryce Young of the Panthers, guide his team to the worst won-lost percentage drop in his starts for any QB in the last 20 years.
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, DENVER, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Rookie quarterbacks have gotten off to very slow starts of late
As part of their overall recent struggles, rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early-season starters, going 4-22-1 SU and 9-17-1 ATS (34.6%) in their last 27 Week 1-3 games. They are also on a 26-9 Under the total (74.3%) run in their last 35 such contests.
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, DENVER, WASHINGTON, also PLAY UNDER in ALL 3 GAMES

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 109-106 ATS (50.7%) in home games but just 90-114 ATS (44.1%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 32-94 SU and 52-72-2 ATS (41.9%).
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, DENVER, WASHINGTON 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 15 games, going 15-110 SU and 47-75-3 ATS (38.5%).
System Matches: FADE – DENVER, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional and non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2018, rookie QBs are just 21-44 SU and 27-37-1 ATS (42.2%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match: FADE – CHICAGO, DENVER, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 133 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 43-92 SU and 59-74-2 ATS (44.3%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 16-16 SU and 21-9-2 ATS (70%) in their L32 such tries. Moreover, they are 18-5-1 ATS (78.3%) in their last 24 Monday Night contests.
System Matches: PLAY – WASHINGTON

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These NFL betting trend systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This year, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh), and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta).

(Games this week: NE-NYG(-6), KC-ATL(+3.5))

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Veteran quarterbacks start slow for their new teams
It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in the month of September, these guys have gone 39-26-1 Under the total (60%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER – NE-NYJ, KC-ATL

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 20-33 SU and 20-32-1 ATS (38.5%) in their last 53 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 9-17-1 ATS (34.6%) in their last 27 Monday Night contests.
System Match: FADE – NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 113-66 SU and 95-73-11 ATS (56.5%).
System Matches: PLAY – NY JETS, ATLANTA 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 41-66 SU but 61-41-5 ATS (59.8%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
System Match: PLAY – ATLANTA

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NFL betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NFL teams that beat a point spread by 32 points or more in any given game have gone just 17-15 SU and 10-22 ATS (31.3%) when playing at home the next week since 2012.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+2.5 vs. DET)

DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 19-32 SU but 34-17 ATS (66.7%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+5.5 at LVR)

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 32-33 SU and 39-24-2 ATS (61.9%) in the last 65.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+6 at NYJ)

· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 21-19 SU but 11-27-2 ATS (28.9%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 37-25 SU and 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (-6 vs NE)

· A long-running trend of Thursday night home field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 15-15 SU but 10-20 ATS (33.3%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (-6 vs NE)

·There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 16-17 SU and 23-9-1 ATS (71.9%) record.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+6 at NYJ)

Bad TNF Team Trends
NY Jets 0-6 SU and ATS in the last six, allowed 33.2 PPG
System Match: FADE NY JETS (-6 vs. NE) 

OVER the total TNF Team Trends
NY Jets 6-2 Over in the last eight
System Match: PLAY OVER in NE-NYJ (o/u at 38.5)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 17-18 SU and 21-12-2 ATS (63.6%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+3.5 vs. KC)

·  In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 25-20 SU & 17-26-2 ATS (39.5%) in the last 44. Under the total is also 24-13 (64.9%) in the last 37.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+3.5 vs. KC), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)

· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-19 SU and 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) in their last 31, but those coming off a win are on a current 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+3.5 vs. KC) 

OVER the total SNF Team Trends
Kansas City 15-6 Over since 2016, combined avg. 53.8 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER in KC-ATL (o/u at 46.5)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  Laying 7 points or more has for long not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 43-14 SU but just 19-36-2 ATS (34.5%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs WAS)

· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 23-22 SU but 12-31-2 ATS (27.9%) in the last 45.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs WAS)

· In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on an 15-17 SU and 19-13 ATS (59.4%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-5 vs. JAX)

· In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 10-11 SU and 15-6 ATS (71.4%) in their last 21 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE (+5 at BUF), CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs WAS)

·  Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 30-29 SU but just 19-38-2 ATS (33.3%) in the last 59 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO (-5 vs. JAX), WASHINGTON (+7.5 at CIN)

UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
Cincinnati 5-2-1 Under in the last eight, scoring 17.6 PPG
System Match: PLAY UNDER in WAS-CIN (o/u at 48.5)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends

Buffalo 13-5 SU and 10-8 ATS primetime run
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-5 vs. JAX)

Kansas City 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS in the last 21 road primetime games
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at ATL)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends

NY Jets 1-13 SU while going 3-11 ATS
System Match: FADE NY JETS (-6 vs. NE)

Washington 10-21 and 9-21-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+7.5 at CIN)

OVER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Kansas City 18-5 Over surge in road games
System Match: PLAY OVER in KC-ATL (o/u at 46.5) 

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Atlanta 12 straight Unders
System Match: PLAY UNDER in KC-ATL (o/u at 46.5)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +2.5 (+3.2)
2. DALLAS +1 (+1.8)
3. ARIZONA +3 (+1.7)
4. LA RAMS +7 (+1.2)
5. LA CHARGERS +1.5 (+0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAS VEGAS -5 (+4.7)
2. BUFFALO -5 (+2.5)
3(tie). TAMPA BAY -6.5 (+2.1)
SEATTLE -4.5 (+2.1)
5. NY JETS -6 (+1.8)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +2.5 (+2.6)
2. DALLAS +1 (+1.9)
3(tie). MINNESOTA +2 (+1.5)
ARIZONA +3 (+1.5)
5. LA CHARGERS +1.5 (+1.0)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KANSAS CITY -3.5 (+2.5)
2. TAMPA BAY -6.5 (+2.2)
3. LAS VEGAS -5 (+1.7)
4. TENNESSEE -2 (+1.5)
5. SEATTLE -4.5 (+0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-SEA OVER 41.5 (+1.8)
2. NYG-CLE OVER 38.5 (+1.0)
3(tie). CHI-IND OVER 43.5 (+0.8)
HOU-MIN OVER 46 (+0.8)
5. SF-LAR OVER 44.5 (+0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BAL-DAL UNDER 48.5 (-2.3)
2. CAR-LVR UNDER 40 (-2.1)
3. DEN-TB UNDER 40 (-1.2)
4(tie). NE-NYJ UNDER 38.5 (-0.7)
PHI-NO UNDER 49.5 (-0.7) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +2.5 (+4.4)
2(tie). ARIZONA +3 (+1.3)
DALLAS +1 (+1.3)
4. LA CHARGERS +1.5 (+0.7)
5. CHICAGO +1 (+0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAS VEGAS -5 (+3.4)
2. TAMPA BAY -6.5 (+1.9)
3. NY JETS -6 (+1.2)
4. CINCINNATI -7.5 (+1.1)
5. BUFFALO -5 (+0.9) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-PIT OVER 36 (+3.5)
2(tie). GB-TEN OVER 38 (+2.1)
DET-ARI OVER 51.5 (+2.1)
4. MIA-SEA OVER 41.5 (+1.7)
5. NYG-CLE OVER 38.5 (+1.3) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CAR-LVR UNDER 40 (-2.8)
2. CHI-IND UNDER 43.5 (-1.9)
3. JAX-BUF UNDER 45.5 (-1.0)
4. DEN-TB UNDER 40 (-0.9)
5. NE-NYJ UNDER 38.5 (-0.8)

Here are 19 top NFL betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter: 

* Jared Goff (DET) is 26-25 SU but 35-16 ATS (68.6%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +1.7, Team average PF: 23.9
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (-3 at ARI) 

* Lamar Jackson (BAL) is 11-6 SU and 14-3 ATS (82.4%) as an underdog. The average line was +3.3, Team average PF: 25
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (*if they become an underdog at DAL)

* Derek Carr (NO) is 21-29 SU and 18-30-2 ATS (37.5%) vs. NFC foes. The average line was +0.6, Team average PF: 21.8

* Derek Carr (NO) is 33-26 SU and 19-37-1 ATS (33.9%) as a favorite. The average line was -4, Team average PF: 23.8
Systems Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs. PHI)

* Justin Fields (PIT) is 9-24 SU and 12-19-2 ATS (38.7%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.9, Team average PF: 19.3
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-1.5 vs. LAC)

* Matthew Stafford (LAR) is 2-16 SU and 6-11-1 ATS (35.3%) as an underdog of more than 7 points. The average line was +10.3, Team average PF: 18.2
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (*if they become a 7.5-point underdog or worse vs SF, +7 currently)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* ARIZONA is 22-27 ATS (44.9%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 24-16 ATS (60%) as an underdog since 2021
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+3 vs DET) 

* ATLANTA is 17-31 ATS (35.4%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 15-30 ATS (33.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Systems Match: FADE ATLANTA (+3.5 vs KC) 

* BALTIMORE is 46-56 ATS (45.1%) as a favorite since 2015
* BALTIMORE is 38-20 ATS (65.5%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-1.5 at DAL) 

* BUFFALO is 34-26 ATS (56.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-5 vs JAX) 

* CHICAGO is 18-29 ATS (38.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 25-41 ATS (37.9%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 23-36 ATS (39%) as an underdog since 2019
Systems Match: FADE CHICAGO (+1 at IND)

* CLEVELAND is 30-40 ATS (42.9%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 19-29 ATS (39.6%) as a favorite since 2017
* CLEVELAND is 12-6 ATS (66.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2020
Systems Match: 2 FADEs, 1 PLAY of CLEVELAND (-6 vs NYG) 

* DALLAS is 12-3 ATS (80%) when coming off SU loss since 2021
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+1.5 vs BAL) 

* DENVER is 92-58 UNDER the total (61.3%) since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-TB (o/u at 40) 

* DETROIT is 36-16 ATS (69.2%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3 at ARI) 

* GREEN BAY is 21-10 ATS (67.7%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+3 at TEN) 

* INDIANAPOLIS is 24-15 ATS (61.5%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-1 vs CHI) 

* JACKSONVILLE is 24-38 ATS (38.7%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 33-21 UNDER the total (61.1%) since 2021
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+5 at BUF), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45.5) 

* KANSAS CITY is 10-5 ATS (66.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2021
* KANSAS CITY is 52-34 ATS (60.5%) in road/neutral games since 2014
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at ATL) 

* LA CHARGERS are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) as an underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS (+1.5 at PIT)

* LA RAMS are 21-13 ATS (61.8%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS are 42-32 UNDER the total (56.8%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY LA RAMS (+7 vs SF), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43) 

* LAS VEGAS is 14-19 ATS (42.4%) as a favorite since 2019
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (-5.5 vs CAR) 

* MIAMI is 27-15 ATS (64.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MIAMI is 48-34 ATS (58.5%) as an underdog since 2014
Systems Match: PLAY MIAMI (+4.5 at SEA)

* MINNESOTA is 19-24 ATS (44.2%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 13-22 ATS (37.1%) at home since 2020
* MINNESOTA is 29-16 ATS (64.4%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 50-37 OVER the total (57.5%) since 2019
Systems Match: 2 FADEs, 1 PLAY of MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs HOU), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 46.5) 

* NEW ENGLAND is 11-17-1 ATS (39.3%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+6 at NYJ) 

* NEW ORLEANS is 21-37 ATS (36.2%) at home since 2017
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs PHI) 

* NY GIANTS are 46-22 UNDER the total (67.6%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYG-CLE (o/u at 38.5) 

* NY JETS are 10-24 ATS (29.4%) when coming off SU win since 2017
* NY JETS are 17-31 ATS (35.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* NY JETS are 8-20 ATS (28.6%) as a favorite since 2017
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (-6 vs NE) 

* PHILADELPHIA is 13-26 ATS (33.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* PHILADELPHIA is 18-27 ATS (40%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Systems Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 at NO) 

* PITTSBURGH is 19-27 ATS (41.3%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 94-61 UNDER the total (60.6%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-1.5 vs LAC), also PLAY UNDER in LAC-PIT (o/u at 35.5) 

* SAN FRANCISCO is 19-12 ATS (61.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-7 at LAR) 

* SEATTLE is 36-48-1 ATS (42.9%) when coming off SU win since 2015
* SEATTLE is 20-15-1 ATS (57.1%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (-4.5 vs MIA) 

* TAMPA BAY is 34-46 ATS (42.5%) at home since 2014
* TAMPA BAY is 32-45 ATS (41.6%) as a favorite since 2014
Systems Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-6.5 vs DEN) 

* WASHINGTON is 17-9 ATS (65.4%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 39-28 UNDER the total (58.2%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 at CIN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48.5)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(301) NEW ENGLAND at (302) NY JETS
* NEW ENGLAND is on 5-1 ATS run at NY Jets
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS 

(471) BALTIMORE at (472) DALLAS
* Over the total is 4-0-1 in the last five of the BAL-DAL series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(465) CAROLINA at (466) LAS VEGAS
* Over the total is 5-2 in the last seven of the CAR-LVR series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(453) CHICAGO at (454) INDIANAPOLIS
* Favorites are on a 5-1 ATS run in the CHI-IND series
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS ATS 

(461) DENVER at (462) TAMPA BAY
* Road teams are 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight of the DEN-TB series
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS 

(469) DETROIT at (470) ARIZONA
* Underdogs are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the DET-ARI series
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA ATS 

(463) GREEN BAY at (464) TENNESSEE
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the GB-TEN series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(455) HOUSTON at (456) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 5-0 SU and ATS all-time versus Texans
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

 (475) KANSAS CITY at (476) ATLANTA
* Road teams have won the last three ATS in the KC-ATL series
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY ATS 

(451) LA CHARGERS at (452) PITTSBURGH
* Road underdogs are on a 5-0 ATS streak in the LAC-PIT series
System Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS ATS 

(467) MIAMI at (468) SEATTLE
* MIAMI is on a 4-0 ATS streak at Seattle
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS 

(457) NY GIANTS at (458) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the NYG-CLE series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS 

(459) PHILADELPHIA at (460) NEW ORLEANS
* Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the PHI-NO series at New Orleans
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(473) SAN FRANCISCO at (474) LA RAMS
* SAN FRANCISCO is on a 9-3 ATS surge at LA Rams
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO ATS 

(477) JACKSONVILLE at (478) BUFFALO
* Underdogs have won the last six ATS in the JAC-BUF series
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS (479) WASHINGTON at (480) CINCINNATI
* Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the WAS-CIN series
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

For more NFL Week 3 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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