Week NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 4. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
NFL Streaks Betting System #6: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-29 SU but 32-10-2 ATS (76.2%) in their last 44 tries.
System Match (PLAY ATS): NEW ORLEANS (+15.5 at BUF)
Pre-bye week system #3: Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 78-6 SU and 56-26-2 ATS since 2002, 68.3%, +27.4 units, 33.4% ROI, Grade 72)
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-7 at DAL)
* NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 9-21-2 SU but 22-9-1 ATS (71%) in their last 32 tries.
System Match (PLAY ATS): CINCINNATI (+7.5 at DEN)
* In Weeks 1-8, Thursday Night Football home teams have gone 27-22 SU but 16-31-2 ATS (34%) in the last 49.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+1.5 vs SEA)
* Retread coaches have struggled in non-conference games, going 42-59 ATS (41.6%) over the last decade, including 15-29 ATS (34.1%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND (-5.5 vs CAR), LAS VEGAS (-1.5 vs CHI)
* JACKSONVILLE is on a horrific 5-41 SU and 13-33 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
Trend Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 at SF)
#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen Bettors Ratings: PHI-TB OVER 43.5 (projections have total at 47.9)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)
These are very good wrap-up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, PHILADELPHIA, BUFFALO, NEW ENGLAND, LA CHARGERS, BALTIMORE, GREEN BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, HOUSTON, MIAMI
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, TENNESSEE, NY JETS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, BUFFALO, CAROLINA, DETROIT, LA CHARGERS, SAN FRANCISCO, INDIANAPOLIS, CHICAGO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL consistently has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SEATTLE, PHILADELPHIA, LA CHARGERS, BALTIMORE, GREEN BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain”, they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, INDIANAPOLIS, CHICAGO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, GREEN BAY, DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DENVER
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NO-BUF, IND-LAR, CHI-LVR, BAL-KC, GB-DAL
UNDER – JAX-SF
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets have been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for handle has also produced a 74-62 (54.4%) record.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIN-PIT, PHI-TB, NO-BUF, CAR-NE, TEN-HOU, JAX-SF, BAL-KC, GB-DAL, NYJ-MIA
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): LAC-NYG, IND-LAR, CHI-LVR
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): LAC-NYG
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(101) SEATTLE (2-1) at (102) ARIZONA (2-1)
* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on a 6-2 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-ARI (o/u at 43.5)
* SEATTLE is 41-52-1 ATS (44.1%) when coming off SU win since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at ARI)
* ARIZONA is 27-31 ATS (46.6%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 13-19 ATS (40.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 31-18 ATS (63.3%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of ARIZONA (+1.5 vs SEA)
(251) MINNESOTA (2-1) vs (252) PITTSBURGH (2-1)
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 14-7 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
* MINNESOTA is 59-47 Over the total (55.7%) since 2019
* PITTSBURGH is 103-71 Under the total (59.2%) since 2015
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in MIN-PIT (o/u at 40.5)
* MINNESOTA is 31-17 SU and 32-14 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 82-57 SU and 88-50-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs PIT)
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on a 30-24 SU and 36-16 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+2.5 vs MIN)
(253) PHILADELPHIA (3-0) at (254) TAMPA BAY (3-0)
* PHILADELPHIA is 21-9 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 20-9 Under the total in his last 29 road games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY Under in PHI-TB (o/u at 43.5)
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on a 0-10 SU and 1-7 ATS skid as a home underdog of +3 to +7 points
* TAMPA BAY is 38-52 ATS (42.2%) at home since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs PHI)
(255) NEW ORLEANS (0-3) at (256) BUFFALO (3-0)
* NEW ORLEANS is 36-24 ATS (60%) in road/neutral games since 2018
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott is 10-1 SU but 2-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY ATS): NEW ORLEANS (+15.5 at BUF)
(257) CAROLINA (1-2) at (258) NEW ENGLAND (1-2)
* CAROLINA is 7-17 SU and 6-18 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+5.5 at NE)
(259) WASHINGTON (2-1) at (260) ATLANTA (1-2)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 24-12 Over the total in games after scoring 30+ points since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WAS-ATL (o/u at 45.5)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 26-14-1 ATS (65%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* ATLANTA is on an 11-20 SU and 7-24 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
* ATLANTA’s Raheem Morris is on a 12-17 SU and 10-19 ATS slide in home games
Trends Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-1.5 at ATL)
(261) CLEVELAND (1-2) at (262) DETROIT (2-1)
* CLEVELAND is 5-19 SU and 4-20 ATS when coming off a game having allowed <=14 points since 2014
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is on a 7-19 SU and 6-18 ATS slide when coming off an outright win
Trends Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+10 at DET)
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 22-12 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is 14-7 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CLE-DET (o/u at 44.5)
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on an 8-12 SU and 9-11 ATS skid vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33%
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 9-6 SU but 4-11 ATS as a home favorite of more than 7 points since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): DETROIT (-10 vs CLE)
(263) TENNESSEE (0-3) at (264) HOUSTON (0-3)
* TENNESSEE is 21-13 SU and 21-12 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
* TENNESSEE is on a 7-31 SU and 8-29-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TENNESSEE (+7 at HOU)
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on a 9-1 Under the total streak as a home favorite
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-HOU (o/u at 38.5)
(265) LA CHARGERS (3-0) at (266) NY GIANTS (0-3)
* LA CHARGERS are 64-33 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 25-10 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 14-3 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
* NY GIANTS are 57-29 Under the total (66.3%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS are 25-6 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 21-9 Under the total surge as single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-NYG (o/u at 43.5)
* LA CHARGERS’ Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 32-9 SU and 29-10 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-6 at NYG)
(267) JACKSONVILLE (2-1) at (268) SAN FRANCISCO (3-0)
* JACKSONVILLE is 9-49 SU and 15-42 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is on a horrific 5-41 SU and 13-33 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
Trends Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 at SF)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is on a 4-5 SU and 0-9 ATS skid when coming off a home win
* SAN FRANCISCO is 19-28 ATS (40.4%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5 vs JAX)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 44-29 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
* SAN FRANCISCO is on 15-2 Over the total surge as a home favorite of -3 to -7 points
* JACKSONVILLE is 41-31 UNDER the total (56.9%) since 2021
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in JAX-SF (o/u at 47.5)
(269) INDIANAPOLIS (3-0) at (270) LA RAMS (2-1)
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 32-14 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
* LA RAMS are 52-42 Under the total (55.3%) since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-LAR (o/u at 49.5)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 25-18 ATS (58.1%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* INDIANAPOLIS’ Daniel Jones is 9-9 SU and 14-4 ATS as a road underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5 at LAR)
* LA RAMS are 25-15 ATS (62.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 34-64 SU and 36-60 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (-3.5 vs IND)
(271) CHICAGO (1-2) at (272) LAS VEGAS (1-2)
* CHICAGO is 17-3 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-LVR (o/u at 47.5)
* CHICAGO is 28-47 ATS (37.3%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 29-44-1 ATS (39.7%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 at LVR)
* LAS VEGAS is 10-17 SU and 7-20 ATS vs. poor teams with point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2018
* LAS VEGAS’ Geno Smith is 7-10 SU but 10-7 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2013
* LAS VEGAS is 35-49 ATS (41.7%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 16-20 ATS (44.4%) as a favorite since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of LAS VEGAS (-1.5 vs CHI)
(273) BALTIMORE (1-2) at (274) KANSAS CITY (1-2)
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on 9-3 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-KC (o/u at 48.5)
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 32-10 SU and 27-14 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 11-4 SU but 5-10 ATS in the last 15 games vs. poor teams with a winning percentage <=33%
* BALTIMORE is 44-24 ATS (64.7%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-2.5 at KC)
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 29-10 SU and 24-13 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
* KANSAS CITY is 17-9 ATS (65.4%) as an underdog since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+2.5 vs BAL)
(275) GREEN BAY (2-1) at (276) DALLAS (1-2)
* GREEN BAY is 24-12 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GB-DAL (o/u at 47.5)
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 20-14 SU but 13-21 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
* GREEN BAY is 23-16 ATS (59%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-7 at DAL)
* DALLAS’s Dak Prescott owns a poor 22-29 SU and 16-35 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is on 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
* DALLAS is 29-23 ATS (55.8%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of DALLAS (+7 vs GB)
(277) NY JETS (0-3) at (278) MIAMI (0-3)
* NY JETS are 20-35 ATS (36.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* NY JETS are 22-45 ATS (32.8%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* NY JETS own ugly 11-47 SU and 19-37 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+3 at MIA)
* MIAMI is 37-24 ATS (60.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* MIAMI is on a 33-18 SU and 32-18 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovalioa is 25-9 SU and 22-12 ATS (64.7%) in home games. The average line was -3.7, Team average PF: 25
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 10-1 SU and 9-1-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3 vs NYJ)
(279) CINCINNATI (2-1) at (280) DENVER (1-2)
* CINCINNATI is 13-23 SU but 26-11 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016
* CINCINNATI is 57-65 SU but 73-46 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI is 49-27 ATS (64.5%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 25-16 ATS (61%) as an underdog since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+7.5 at DEN)
* DENVER’s Sean Payton is 17-10 SU and 20-6 ATS in the last 27 games when coming off an outright road loss
* DENVER is 24-35 ATS (40.7%) as a favorite since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DENVER (-7.5 vs CIN)
* DENVER is 100-68 Under the total (59.5%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-DEN (o/u at 44.5)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: NO(+15.5)-BUF, JAX(+3.5)-SF, CHI(+1.5)-LVR, GB-DAL(+7), NYJ(+3)-MIA)
– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 27-115 SU (19%) and 68-74 ATS (47.9%) when catching 7 points or more since 2017.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS
– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015 – Divisional games 113-129-4 ATS (46.7%).
System Match (FADE): NY JETS
– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse since December 2020, going 43-69-6 ATS (38.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, CHICAGO
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: CAR-NE(-5.5), CHI-LVR(-1.5))
– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites in their first seasons with the new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 91-67 SU but just 58-89-11 ATS, for 39.5%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS
– In non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 42-59 ATS (41.6%) over the last decade, including 15-29 ATS (34.1%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS
– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2015, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 100-135 ATS (42.6%), while in weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 81-74 ATS (52.3%). It seems that it takes some time for these coaches to find their footing in their new homes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS
– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 136-174 ATS (43.9%) since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters for this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee) and Jaxson Dart (NY Giants).
(Games this week: TEN(+7)-HOU, LAC-NYG(+6))
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
· The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 137-126 ATS (52.1%) in home games but just 121-141 ATS (46.2%) in road/neutral games.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
· Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 21 games, going 21-122 SU and 57-82-4 ATS (41%).
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
– Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 49-106 SU and 65-85-4 ATS (43.3%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
– Since 2022, rookie QBs are 19-16 SU and 20-12-3 ATS (62.5%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
· In their last 166 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 53-115 SU and 75-90-2 ATS (45.5%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Carson Wentz (Minnesota), and Geno Smith (Las Vegas).
(Games this week: MIN(-2.5)-PIT(+2.5), CHI-LVR(-1.5))
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Veteran quarterbacks start slow for their new teams
· It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in the month of September, these guys have gone 47-32-1 Under the total (59.5%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-PIT (o/u at 40.5), CHI-LVR (o/u at 47.5)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
· The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 126-81 SU and 108-88-11 ATS (55.1%).
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last four years
· Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 16-26 SU and 12-30 ATS (28.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH, LAS VEGAS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
· In their last 57 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 28-29 SU and 22-34-1 ATS (39.3%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
1) Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 27-36 SU but 37-24-2 ATS (60.7%) since 2012.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs WAS)
2) Teams off a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 15-20 SU and 12-22-1 ATS (35.3%) in their last 35 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
System Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+5.5 at NE)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
3) NFL teams that win by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have not been good bets in the follow-up contest, going 23-17 SU but 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) when favored in their last 40 opportunities.
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs PIT)
4) NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 9-21-2 SU but 22-9-1 ATS (71%) in their last 32 tries.
System Match (PLAY ATS): CINCINNATI (+7.5 at DEN)
TURNOVERS ARE A KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
5) NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 18-15 SU but 10-22-1 ATS (31.3%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE ATS): NEW ENGLAND (-5.5 vs CAR)
6) NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 4-17 SU and 3-18 ATS (14.3%) in their last 21 tries.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+7.5 at DEN)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 27-22 SU but 16-31-2 ATS (34%) in the last 49. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 44-27 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+1.5 vs SEA)
· Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 6-21 SU and 10-17 ATS (37%) in their last 27, scoring just 15.1 PPG. In terms of totals, 17 of the last 25 (68%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+1.5 vs SEA)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-ARI (o/u at 43.5)
· Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last five seasons, going 27-33 SU and 23-36-1 ATS (39%).
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+1.5 vs SEA)
Good TNF Team Trends
Seattle 10-6 SU and 8-6-2 ATS in the last 16
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-1.5 at ARI)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 20-24 SU and 25-17-2 ATS (59.5%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7 vs GB)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-22 SU and 14-21-1 ATS (40%) in their last 36, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-9 SU and 22-15 ATS (59.5%) surge.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+7 vs GB)
· More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 17-27 SU and 19-25 ATS (43.2%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-7 at DAL)
Over the total SNF Team Trends
Green Bay 15-7 Over the total since ‘16
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GB-DAL (o/u at 47.5)
Under the total SNF Team Trends
Dallas 16-8 Under since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GB-DAL (o/u at 47.5)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Laying 7 points or more has for long not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 47-15 SU but just 22-38-2 ATS (36.7%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE ATS): DENVER (-7.5 vs CIN)
· In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 20-20 SU and 24-16 ATS (60%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7.5 vs CIN)
· Home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 16-17 SU and 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) in their last 33 tries.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-3 vs NYJ)
· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 43-36 SU but just 30-47-2 ATS (39%) in the last 79 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+7.5 at DEN)
Bad MNF Team Trends
Denver 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-7.5 vs CIN)
Under the total MNF Team Trends
Cincinnati 6-3-1 Under the last 10, scoring 20.1 PPG
Denver 7-1 Under the last eight
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-DEN (o/u at 44.5)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Dallas 15-8 ATS in the last 23
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7 vs GB)
Green Bay 19-8 SU and 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-7 at DAL)
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 9-21 SU and 10-18-2 ATS in the last 30
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-7.5 vs CIN)
NY Jets 3-15 SU while going 5-13 ATS
Trend Match (FADE): NY JETS (+3 at MIA)
Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 17-6 Under since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-DEN (o/u at 44.5)
Miami 13-3 to the Under
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYJ-MIA (o/u at 44.5)
Seattle 11-5 Under in the last 16
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-ARI (o/u at 43.5)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 90-20 SU and 70-40 ATS (63.6%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-6 at NYG)
NFL Streaks Betting System #6: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-29 SU but 32-10-2 ATS (76.2%) in their last 44 tries.
System Match (PLAY ATS): NEW ORLEANS (+15.5 at BUF)
NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last 3 games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-78 SU but 60-31 ATS (65.9%) as underdogs of 5.5 points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY ATS): NEW ORLEANS (+15.5 at BUF)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 62-38 SU but 40-56-4 ATS (41.7%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): HOUSTON (-7 vs TEN), MIAMI (-3 vs NYJ)
Pre-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye-week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Pre-bye-week system #3
Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 78-6 SU and 56-26-2 ATS since ’02, 68.3%, +27.4 units, 33.4% ROI, Grade 72)
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-7 at DAL)
Pre-bye-week system #5
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 35-22-3 ATS since 2015, 61.4%, +10.8 units, 18.9% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs WAS)
Pre-bye-week system #8
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 28-7-1 SU and 24-11-1 ATS since 2009, 68.6%, +11.9 units, 34% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): *WATCH FOR CHICAGO at LVR (+1.5 currently)
* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons Pre-Bye-Week Game – 9/28 vs. Washington Commanders
· Atlanta has gone 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 pre-bye-week games overall
· The Falcons are on a 1-5-1 ATS skid in pre-bye-week home games
Trends Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs WAS)
Chicago Bears Pre-Bye-Week Game – 9/28 at Las Vegas Raiders
· Chicago has been one of the league’s worst long run teams in terms of pre-bye-week performance, 9-17 SU and 11-15 ATS since 1999, however, they have won two straight
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 at LVR)
· The Bears are on a 9-4 Over the total surge in pre-bye-week games since ‘12
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-LVR (o/u at 47.5)
Green Bay Packers Pre-Bye-Week Game – 9/28 at Dallas Cowboys
· The Packers have lost back-to-back pre-bye-week games after going 23-8 prior
· Green Bay is on a 2-10 ATS skid in pre-bye-week road games, while also going 9-2-1 Over the total
Trend Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-7 at DAL)
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GB-DAL (o/u at 47.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers Pre-Bye-Week Game – 9/28 vs. Minnesota Vikings (Dublin)
· Pittsburgh is on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run overall in pre-bye-week games
· The Steelers are on a 6-2 ATS surge as pre-bye-week game underdogs
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+2.5 vs MIN)
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +7 (+3.1)
2. KANSAS CITY +2.5 (+2.8)
3. CAROLINA +5.5 (+2.6)
4. CHICAGO +1.5 (+1.0)
5. PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -10 (+3.8)
2. HOUSTON -7 (+2.5)
3. BUFFALO -15.5 (+2.3)
4. MIAMI -2.5 (+1.3)
5. WASHINGTON -1.5 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +1.5 (+3.1)
2. TAMPA BAY +3.5 (+1.8)
3. NEW ORLEANS +15.5 (+1.6)
4. CAROLINA +5.5 (+1.4)
5. KANSAS CITY +2.5 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SEATTLE -1.5 (+3.6)
2. DENVER -7.5 (+3.5)
3. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+2.7)
4. DETROIT -10 (+1.8)
5. LA RAMS -3.5 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-PIT OVER 40.5 (+2.3)
2. NO-BUF OVER 47.5 (+2.2)
3. CAR-NE OVER 42.5 (+2.0)
4. LAC-NYG OVER 43.5 (+1.3)
5. SEA-ARI OVER 43.5 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JAX-SF UNDER 47.5 (-2.4)
2. PHI-TB UNDER 43.5 (-1.7)
3. GB-DAL UNDER 47.5 (-1.1)
4. CIN-DEN UNDER 44.5 (-0.8)
5. TEN-HOU UNDER 38.5 (-0.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +7 (+3.6)
2. NEW ORLEANS +15.5 (+2.7)
3. ARIZONA +1.5 (+2.6)
4. PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+1.9)
5. ATLANTA +1.5 (+1.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA RAMS -3.5 (+2.8)
2(tie). LAS VEGAS -1.5 (+2.1)
DETROIT -10 (+2.1)
MIAMI -2.5 (+2.1)
5. SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-TB OVER 43.5 (+4.4)
2. MIN-PIT OVER 40.5 (+3.5)
3. LAC-NYG OVER 43.5 (+2.8)
4. CLE-DET OVER 44.5 (+2.1)
5. WAS-ATL OVER 45.5 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JAX-SF UNDER 47.5 (-5.0)
2. CHI-LVR UNDER 47.5 (-1.4)
3. NYJ-MIA UNDER 45.5 (-1.1)
4. TEN-HOU UNDER 38.5 (-0.6)
5. SEA-ARI UNDER 43.5 (-0.4)
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(101) SEATTLE at (102) ARIZONA
* Seattle is on runs of 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven overall meetings with ARI and 10-1-1 SU in the last 12 visits to State Farm Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-1.5 at ARI)
(251) MINNESOTA at (252) PITTSBURGH
* Favorites are 4-1 ATS in the MIN-PIT nonconference series since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-2.5 at PIT)
(253) PHILADELPHIA at (254) TAMPA BAY
* Home teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the PHI-TB series
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs PHI)
(255) NEW ORLEANS at (256) BUFFALO
* Favorites have won and covered in all seven matchups between NO and BUF since 1998
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-15.5 vs NO)
(257) CAROLINA at (258) NEW ENGLAND
* Carolina is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in visits to New England since 1995
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+5.5 at NE)
(259) WASHINGTON at (260) ATLANTA
* Washington is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-1.5 at ATL)
(261) CLEVELAND at (262) DETROIT
* Over the total is 4-0 in the CLE-DET series at Detroit since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-DET (o/u at 44.5)
(263) TENNESSEE at (264) HOUSTON
* Underdogs are 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the TEN-HOU AFC South series
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+7 at HOU)
(265) LA CHARGERS at (266) NY GIANTS
* Over the total is 6-1 in the Chargers-Giants series since 1995
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-NYG (o/u at 43.5)
* LAC is 5-0 SU and ATS versus NYG since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-6 at NYG)
(267) JACKSONVILLE at (268) SAN FRANCISCO
* San Francisco is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in meetings with Jacksonville since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 vs JAX)
(269) INDIANAPOLIS at (270) LA RAMS
* Over the total is 7-0 in the IND-LAR nonconference series since 2001
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-LAR (o/u at 49.5)
(271) CHICAGO at (272) LAS VEGAS
* Chicago is 8-2 ATS in meetings with the Raiders since 1993
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+1.5 at LVR)
(273) BALTIMORE at (274) KANSAS CITY
* Kansas City is on a 6-2 SU and ATS surge versus Baltimore
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+2.5 vs BAL)
(275) GREEN BAY at (276) DALLAS
* Green Bay has owned Jerry’s World, going 5-0 SU and ATS in visits to Dallas since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-7 at DAL)
* Over the total is 13-1 in the GB-DAL series at Dallas since 1993
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GB-DAL (o/u at 47.5)
(277) NY JETS at (278) MIAMI
* Favorites are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five of the Jets-Dolphins AFC East series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3 vs NYJ)
(279) CINCINNATI at (280) DENVER
* Road teams are 9-2 ATS in the CIN-DEN matchups since 2006, including Cincinnati being 5-0 ATS in the last five visits to Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+7.5 at DEN)
