Week NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 5. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NY GIANTS are 13-0 Under the total when coming off a win over an AFC foe since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-NO (o/u at 42.5)
Pre-bye week system #10: Play on any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 15-2-1 SU and 13-5 ATS since 2008, 72.2%, +7.5 Units, 41.7% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4.5 vs CLE)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 62-14 SU and 50-24-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs DEN)
* Strangely, the league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on Sunday Night Football of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 14-9 SU but 6-17 ATS (26.1%) in their last 23 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE ATS): BUFFALO (-8.5 vs NE)
* NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 21-36 SU but 37-20 ATS (64.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI), CINCINNATI (+10.5 vs DET)
* TAMPA BAY is on 26-9 (74.3%) Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-SEA (o/u at 44.5)
* Road teams are 8-1 ATS in the Raiders-Colts series since 2010
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+7 at IND)
#1 Underpriced Underdog according to the Makinen Power Ratings: BALTIMORE +1.5 vs Houston (projections have line at BAL -1.5)
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(301) SAN FRANCISCO (3-1) at (302) LA RAMS (3-1)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 25-15 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
* LA RAMS are 53-42 Under the total (55.8%) since 2020
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 21-12 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in SF-LAR (o/u at 44.5)
* LA RAMS are 16-6 SU and 17-4 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 35-64 SU and 37-60 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (-7.5 vs SF)
(461) MINNESOTA (2-2) at (462) CLEVELAND (1-3)
* MINNESOTA is 31-18 SU and 32-15 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 82-58 SU and 88-51-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 32-25 ATS (56.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4.5 at CLE)
* MINNESOTA is 60-47 Over the total (56.1%) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CLE (o/u at 36.5)
(463) MIAMI (1-3) at (464) CAROLINA (1-3)
* CAROLINA is 7-18 SU and 6-19 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
* CAROLINA is 19-29 ATS (39.6%) at home since 2019
* MIAMI is on a 34-18 SU and 33-18 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is on a 13-6 SU and ATS surge with his team coming off a home win
* MIAMI is 29-18 ATS (61.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 11-1 SU and 10-1-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 at CAR)
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is on 7-4 Under the total run with his team coming off a double-digit loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CAR (o/u at 45.5)
(465) DALLAS (1-2) at (466) NY JETS (0-4)
* DALLAS is 26-9 SU and 23-12 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS is 22-15 ATS (59.5%) in road/neutral games since 2021
* NY JETS are 8-25 SU and 10-21 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* NY JETS are 13-30 ATS (30.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 11-28 SU and 15-22-2 ATS (40.5%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.2, Team average PF: 19.6
Trends Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-2.5 at NYJ)
(467) LAS VEGAS (1-3) at (468) INDIANAPOLIS (3-1)
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 15-18 SU and 20-14 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
* LAS VEGAS is 35-50 ATS (41.2%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 37-51 ATS (42%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-7 vs LVR)
(469) DENVER (2-2) at (470) PHILADELPHIA (4-0)
* DENVER is 18-6 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
* DENVER is 101-68 Under the total (59.8%) since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-PHI (o/u at 43.5)
* PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2020
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 24-2 SU and 18-7 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs DEN)
(471) NY GIANTS (1-3) at (472) NEW ORLEANS (0-4)
* NY GIANTS are 13-0 Under the total when coming off a win over an AFC foe since 2016
* NY GIANTS are 58-29 Under the total (66.7%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 22-9 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-NO (o/u at 42.5)
* NEW ORLEANS is 24-44 ATS (35.3%) at home since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs NYG)
(473) HOUSTON (1-3) at (474) BALTIMORE (1-3)
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 14-7 Under the total in the last 21 games with his team coming off a win
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-BAL (o/u at 40.5)
* BALTIMORE is 13-14 SU but 21-6 ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+1.5 vs HOU)
(475) TENNESSEE (0-4) at (476) ARIZONA (2-2)
* TENNESSEE is on a 7-32 SU and 8-30-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trend Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI)
* ARIZONA is 41-19 SU and 37-23 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2012
* ARIZONA is 27-32 ATS (45.8%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 20-33 ATS (37.7%) as a favorite since 2016
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 2 FADES of ARIZONA (-7.5 vs TEN)
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 11-1 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TEN-ARI (o/u at 42.5)
(477) TAMPA BAY (3-1) at (478) SEATTLE (3-1)
* TAMPA BAY is on 26-9 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-SEA (o/u at 44.5)
* SEATTLE is 42-52-1 ATS (44.7%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-3.5 vs TB)
* TAMPA BAY is 29-35 ATS (45.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 10-17 SU but 18-9 ATS as a road underdog since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TAMPA BAY (+3.5 at SEA)
(479) DETROIT (3-1) at (480) CINCINNATI (2-2)
* DETROIT is 50-21-1 ATS (70.4%) overall since 2021
* DETROIT is 18-5 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at CIN)
* CINCINNATI is 13-24 SU but 26-12 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016
* CINCINNATI is 25-17 ATS (59.5%) as an underdog since 2020
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on a 13-9 SU and 16-6 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+10.5 vs DET)
(481) WASHINGTON (2-2) at (482) LA CHARGERS (3-1)
* LA CHARGERS are on 26-10 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 15-3 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-LAC (o/u at 47.5)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 6-15 SU and 5-15 ATS vs. AFC since 2016
* WASHINGTON is 20-34 ATS (37%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at LAC)
* LA CHARGERS are 37-50-1 ATS (42.5%) at home since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-2.5 vs WAS)
(483) NEW ENGLAND (2-2) at (484) BUFFALO (4-0)
* NEW ENGLAND is 17-27-2 ATS (38.6%) as an underdog since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+8.5 at BUF)
(485) KANSAS CITY (2-2) at (486) JACKSONVILLE (3-1)
* KANSAS CITY is 20-10 SU but 6-22 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 57-39-1 ATS (59.4%) in road/neutral games since 2014
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 30-10 SU and 25-13 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with his team coming off an upset win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 vs KC)
* JACKSONVILLE is 41-32 Under the total (56.2%) since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-JAX (o/u at 46.5)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as retread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: NYG-NO(-1.5), DAL(-2.5)-NYJ(+2.5), KC-JAX(+3.5))
– Rookie head coaches have not been good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade – 151-177-10 ATS (46%).
System Match (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, NY JETS, JACKSONVILLE
– Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2015, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 87-89-4 ATS, good for 49.4%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 148-161-11 ATS (47.9%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 89-89-1 ATS (50%). Again, not awe-inspiring patterns, but there is some foundation to this.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS, NY JETS, JACKSONVILLE
– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse since December 2020, going 45-69-6 ATS (39.5%).
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: LVR(+7)-IND, NE(+8.5)-BUF)
– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start VERY slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2015, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 101-136 ATS (42.6%), while in weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 81-74 ATS (52.3%). It seems that it takes some time for these coaches to find their footing in their new homes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LAS VEGAS, NEW ENGLAND
– Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 79-77 ATS (51%) record in their first seasons, including 29-24 ATS (54.7%) since mid-2022. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 137-175 ATS (43.9%) in that same time span.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW ENGLAND
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Dillon Gabriel (Cleveland), and Jaxson Dart (NY Giants).
(Games this week: MIN-CLE(+4.5), TEN(+7.5)-ARI, NYG(+1.5)-NO)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 138-126 ATS (52.3%) in home games but just 121-142 ATS (46%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 39-106 SU and 60-83-2 ATS (42%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5-points or more have won just 21 games, going 21-123 SU and 57-83-4 ATS (40.7%).
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as small road dogs
Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as small road underdogs, going 21-52 SU but 30-41-2 ATS (42.3%) when catching +4.5 points or fewer.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, non-conference matchups have been best for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 54-65 SU but 68-50 ATS (57.6%).
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS
– Since 2022, rookie QBs are 20-16 SU and 21-12-3 ATS (63.6%) versus non-conference foes.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 166 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 54-116 SU and 76-91-2 ATS (45.5%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, TENNESSEE
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are two different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Carson Wentz (Minnesota) and Geno Smith (Las Vegas).
(Games this week: MIN(-4.5)-CLE, LVR(+7)-IND)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of October
I just showed how these veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, these QBs have rebounded nicely in month of October, going 44-36 SU and 42-35-3 ATS (54.5%) since 2009.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, LAS VEGAS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 86-71 SU and 85-70-2 ATS (54.8%).
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last four years
Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 17-28 SU and 13-32 ATS (28.9%).
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
1) Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 28-36 SU but 38-24-2 ATS (61.3%) since 2012.
System Match (PLAY ATS): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI)
2) Teams off a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 15-21 SU and 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) in their last 36 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-1.5 at BAL)
DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
3) NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 21-36 SU but 37-20 ATS (64.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI), CINCINNATI (+10.5 vs DET)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played On Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 27-23 SU but 16-32-2 ATS (33.3%) in the last 50. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 and later are 44-27 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-7.5 vs SF)
· NFL home favorites of 7 points or more are on a 32-2 SU and 21-11-2 ATS (65.6%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-7.5 vs SF)
· There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 20-21 SU and 26-14-1 ATS (65%) record.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+7.5 at LAR)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· The biggest home favorites on Sunday nights, or those laying 7 points or more, have been solid of late, going 17-3 SU and 11-9 ATS (55%) in their last 20 tries. Prior to that, they were on a 5-13-1 ATS skid.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BUFFALO (-8.5 vs NE)
· Home field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 20-12 SU and 18-13-1 ATS (58.1%) record since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-8.5 vs NE)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-22-1 SU and 15-21-1 ATS (41.7%) in their last 37, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-9 SU and 22-15 ATS (59.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-8.5 vs NE)
· Strangely, the league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 14-9 SU but 6-17 ATS (26.1%) in their last 23 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE ATS): BUFFALO (-8.5 vs NE)
Good SNF Team Trends
Buffalo 8-2 SU since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO ML (-455 vs NE)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 14-19 SU and 17-15-1 ATS (53.1%) dating back to September 2021. The last 31 of these games have seen Under the total go 22-7-2 (75.9%) as well, games producing just 39.2 PPG.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 vs KC)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-JAX (o/u at 46.5)
· In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 21-20 SU and 25-16 ATS (61%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 vs KC)
· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 43-37 SU but just 30-48-2 ATS (38.5%) in the last 80 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 vs KC)
Good MNF Team Trends
Kansas City 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at JAX)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Buffalo 19-7 SU and 15-11 ATS primetime run
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-8.5 vs NE)
Kansas City 17-6 SU and 16-7 ATS in the last 23 road primetime games
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at JAX)
Over the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Kansas City 18-7 Over surge in road games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-JAX (o/u at 46.5)
Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
LA Rams 16-6 UNDER surge
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-LAR (o/u at 46.5)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 90-21 SU and 70-41 ATS (63.1%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3.5 vs TB)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 62-14 SU and 50-24-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs DEN)
NFL Streaks Betting System #9: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 22-64 SU but 52-32-2 ATS (61.9%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since ’03.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+7 at IND)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 63-38 SU but 41-56-4 ATS (42.3%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (*if they fall into this line range vs NYG, -2.5 currently)
Pre-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Pre-bye-week system #8
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 28-7-1 SU and 24-11-1 ATS since 2009, 68.6%, +11.9 Units, 34% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4.5 vs CLE)
Pre-bye week system #10
Play any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 15-2-1 SU and 13-5 ATS since 2008, 72.2%, +7.5 Units, 41.7% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4.5 vs CLE)
* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Houston Texans Pre-Bye-Week Game – 10/5 at Baltimore Ravens
· Houston boasts a 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS record in pre-bye-week games since its inception in 2002
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-1.5 at BAL)
· Houston has gone 8-1-1 Under the total in its last 10 pre-bye-week games, combined score 35.0 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-BAL (o/u at 40.5)
Minnesota Vikings Pre-Bye-Week Game – 10/5 vs. Cleveland Browns (London)
· Minnesota is on an 8-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye-week games vs. AFC teams
· The Vikings are on a 13-3 SU and ATS run in pre-bye-week games overall
Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4.5 vs CLE)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 2:45 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)
These are very good wrap-up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the ’25 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, CLEVELAND, INDIANAPOLIS, PHILADELPHIA, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE, DETROIT, LA CHARGERS, NEW ENGLAND, KANSAS CITY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, NEW ENGLAND
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, NEW ENGLAND
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MIAMI, DALLAS, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, DETROIT, LA CHARGERS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL consistently has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, DALLAS, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, NEW ENGLAND
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, NEW ENGLAND, KANSAS CITY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets have backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NEW ENGLAND, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in ‘25.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DAL-NYJ, LVR-IND, DET-CIN, WAS-LAC, KC-JAX
UNDER – SF-LAR, NE-BUF
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets have been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for handle has also produced a 74-62 (54.4%) record.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SF-LAR, MIN-CLE, MIA-CAR, TEN-ARI, WAS-LAC, NE-BUF
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): DAL-NYJ, LVR-IND, DEN-PHI, KC-JAX
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): LVR-IND
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE +1.5 (+3.0)
2. NY JETS +2.5 (+2.9)
3. NY GIANTS +1.5 (+2.2)
4. SAN FRANCISCO +7.5 (+2.0)
5. JACKSONVILLE +3.5 (+1.7)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+4.0)
2. ARIZONA -7.5 (+2.8)
3. LA CHARGERS -2.5 (+2.7)
4. INDIANAPOLIS -7 (+2.0)
5. BUFFALO -8.5 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JACKSONVILLE +3.5 (+3.3)
2. CAROLINA +1.5 (+3.0)
3. CLEVELAND +4.5 (+1.8)
4. NY JETS +2.5 (+1.7)
5. LAS VEGAS +7 (+1.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CHARGERS -2.5 (+2.1)
2. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+2.0)
3. SEATTLE -3.5 (+1.8)
4. HOUSTON -1.5 (+1.7)
5. LA RAMS -7.5 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-NYJ OVER 47.5 (+4.5)
2. MIN-CLE OVER 36.5 (+3.7)
3. NYG-NO OVER 42.5 (+2.0)
4. SF-LAR OVER 45.5 (+1.2)
5. MIA-CAR OVER 45.5 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TEN-ARI UNDER 42.5 (-1.2)
2. NE-BUF UNDER 50.5 (-1.0)
3. KC-JAX UNDER 46.5 (-0.8)
4. HOU-BAL UNDER 40.5 (-0.6)
5. DEN-PHI UNDER 43.5 (-0.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CINCINNATI +10.5 (+7.3)
2. BALTIMORE +1.5 (+5.8)
3. NY JETS +2.5 (+3.8)
4. SAN FRANCISCO +7.5 (+3.1)
5. JACKSONVILLE +3.5 (+2.4)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+3.8)
2. LA CHARGERS -2.5 (+2.5)
3. BUFFALO -8.5 (+1.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-CLE OVER 36.5 (+3.8)
2. DAL-NYJ OVER 47.5 (+3.1)
3. TB-SEA OVER 44.5 (+2.4)
4. MIA-CAR OVER 45.5 (+1.7)
5. LVR-IND OVER 47.5 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SF-LAR UNDER 45.5 (-2.9)
2. NE-BUF UNDER 50.5 (-2.8)
3. WAS-LAC UNDER 47.5 (-1.8)
4. DET-CIN UNDER 49.5 (-1.6)
5. KC-JAX UNDER 46.5 (-0.6)
Comparing Effective Yards Per Play Ratings to This Week’s Matchups
Here are the top 6 games for this weekend’s games, as far as differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home field advantage built into the differences.
1. (469) DENVER BRONCOS at (470) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Actual Home Line – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -4
Effective Play-by-Play Line – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +8.9
Difference: 12.9, Favors: DENVER BRONCOS
2. (481) WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at (482) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Actual Home Line – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -12.6
Difference: 9.6, Favors: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
3. (479) DETROIT LIONS at (480) CINCINNATI BENGALS
Actual Home Line – CINCINNATI BENGALS +10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line – CINCINNATI BENGALS +20
Difference: 9.5, Favors: DETROIT LIONS
4. (465) DALLAS COWBOYS at (466) NEW YORK JETS
Actual Home Line – NEW YORK JETS +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line – NEW YORK JETS -6.5
Difference: 9, Favors: NEW YORK JETS
5. (485) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at (486) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Actual Home Line – JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line – JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -1.9
Difference: 5.4, Favors: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
6. (461) MINNESOTA VIKINGS at (462) CLEVELAND BROWNS
Actual Home Line – CLEVELAND BROWNS +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line – CLEVELAND BROWNS -0.4
Difference: 3.9, Favors: CLEVELAND BROWNS
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(301) SAN FRANCISCO at (302) LA RAMS
* Underdogs are 8-5 SU and 11-2 ATS in the 49ers-Rams rivalry since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+7.5 at LAR)
(463) MIAMI at (464) CAROLINA
* MIAMI is 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS versus Carolina since 1998
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 at CAR)
(465) DALLAS at (466) NY JETS
* DALLAS is 4-1-1 ATS in matchups with NYJ since 2003
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-2.5 at NYJ)
(467) LAS VEGAS at (468) INDIANAPOLIS
* Road teams are 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in the Raiders-Colts series since 2010
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+7 at IND)
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the LVR-IND AFC series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LVR-IND (o/u at 47.5)
(469) DENVER at (470) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the DEN-PHI non-conference series since 1998
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs DEN)
(471) NY GIANTS at (472) NEW ORLEANS
* Under the total is 4-1 in NYG-NO h2h matchups since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-NO (o/u at 41.5)
(473) HOUSTON at (474) BALTIMORE
* BALTIMORE is on surges of 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in the series with Houston (avg margin of victory of 21.2 points in those six victories)
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+1.5 vs HOU)
* Under the total is 7-0-1 in the HOU-BAL series at Baltimore since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY): HOU-BAL (o/u at 40.5)
(475) TENNESSEE at (476) ARIZONA
* ARIZONA is 4-1 SU and 3-0-2 ATS in the last five meetings with Tennessee
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-7.5 vs TEN)
(477) TAMPA BAY at (478) SEATTLE
* TAMPA BAY is 5-1 ATS in the last six games versus Seattle
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 at SEA)
(479) DETROIT at (480) CINCINNATI
* Road teams are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the DET-CIN series since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at CIN)
(481) WASHINGTON at (482) LA CHARGERS
* CHARGERS are 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the last six cross-country meetings with Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-2.5 vs WAS)
(483) NEW ENGLAND at (484) BUFFALO
* NEW ENGLAND has covered all four meetings with AFC East rival Buffalo in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+8.5 at BUF)
(485) KANSAS CITY at (486) JACKSONVILLE
* KANSAS CITY is on an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS surge versus Jacksonville
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 vs JAX)
* UNDER the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the KC-JAX series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-JAX (o/u at 46.5)
