The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 6. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

For Monday Night Football, the last 20 games featuring a home underdog have seen Under the total go 17-2-1 (89.5%), games producing just 35.5 PPG.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-NYG (o/u at 41) 

Pre-bye week system #7
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 28-7-1 SU and 24-11-1 ATS since ’09, 68.6%, +11.9 Units, 34% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-2 vs. JAX)

Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5-points or more have won just 17 games, going 17-110 SU and 49-75-3 ATS (39.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, NEW ENGLAND 

Post-bye week ROAD FAVORITE subsystem:
Road favorites vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 32-16 ATS since 2002, 66.7%, +14.4 Units, 30% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-3 at DEN)

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 15-39 SU & 12-38-4 ATS (24%) in game #4 since ’03.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (+1 at TEN)

The Lions have gone 15-5 Under the total in post-bye week games since 2004
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-DAL (o/u at 52)

NY Giants nine straight Unders on Sunday Night Football, scoring 11.3 PPG
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-NYG (o/u at 48)

*Favorites are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of SF-SEA series in Seattle
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5 at SEA)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS projections: DALLAS +3 vs DET (+5.2 difference)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic NFL betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Now, here are the NFL betting trend systems with updated language and records heading into the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, CHICAGO, TAMPA BAY, INDIANAPOLIS, PITTSBURGH, ATLANTA, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, BUFFALO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, TAMPA BAY, INDIANAPOLIS, ATLANTA, BUFFALO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, TAMPA BAY, INDIANAPOLIS, DENVER, ATLANTA, BUFFALO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY, INDIANAPOLIS, PITTSBURGH, ATLANTA, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, BUFFALO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, ARIZONA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) and 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, CINCINNATI, BUFFALO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, CINCINNATI

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2022 was 44.2. Last year, it dropped over a point to 43.0. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors rebounded incredibly in 2023, after going 28-53 ATS in 2022, they were. 44-24 ATS (64.7%) last year! We’ll see how that latter trend holds in ‘24.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING ALL): OVER – SF-SEA, WAS-BAL, ARI-GB, ATL-CAR, CIN-NYG
UNDER – DET-DAL

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, which is evidence of how rarely the betting public bets on the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-NE, LAC-DEN, PIT-LVR, ATL-CAR, DET-DAL

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in ’22 & ‘23 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): SF-SEA, JAX-CHI, WAS-BAL, TB-NO, IND-TEN

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of HANDLE has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): JAX-CHI, TB-NO, IND-TEN

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This NFL betting trend material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: SF-SEA(+3.5), HOU-NE(+7), IND-TEN(+1), ATL-CAR(+6))

– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 153-174-9 ATS (46.8%). Road/Neutral games – 175-155-8 ATS (53%).
System Matches: FADE HOME TEAMS – SEATTLE, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, CAROLINA

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 30-119 SU (20.1%) and 72-75-2 ATS (49%) when catching 7 points or more since 2013.
System Matches: FADE – NEW ENGLAND

– Ironically, it’s in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+6.5 to -6.5 lines) where rookie head coaches enjoy better point spread success rates. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 240-241-2 SU and 240-230-13 ATS (51.1%).
System Matches: PLAY – SEATTLE, TENNESSEE, CAROLINA

– Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2013: Divisional games 112-124-6 ATS (47.5%), Conference games 124-122-4 ATS (50.4%), Non-conference games 92-83-7 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches: FADE – SEATTLE, TENNESSEE, CAROLINA
SLIGHT PLAY – NEW ENGLAND

– In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 152-162-9 ATS (48.4%).
System Matches: FADE – SEATTLE, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, CAROLINA

– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins and keeping them together after losses. Rookie head coaches have been better at the latter. When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 193-184-6 ATS (51.2%) since 2014. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse, 133-141-11 ATS (48.5%).
System Matches: FADE – TENNESSEE
SLIGHT PLAY – SEATTLE, NEW ENGLAND, CAROLINA 

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: WAS(+6.5)-BAL, LAC(-3)-DEN, ATL(-6)-CAR)

– Like the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 80-114-1 ATS (41.2%). Road/Neutral games – 96-103 ATS (48.2%).
System Matches: SLIGHT FADE – WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA 

– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 81-64 SU but just 46-88-11 ATS, for 34.3%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 81-184 SU and 130-129-6 ATS (50.2%).
System Matches: FADE – LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA
SLIGHT PLAY – WASHINGTON

– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2014, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-136-7 ATS (39.6%), while in weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 87-81-10 ATS (51.8%).
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA 

– Since 2014, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 72-75 ATS (49%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 103-140-1 ATS (42.4%) in that same time span.
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA 

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These NFL betting trend systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie that started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), Drake Maye (New England), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road.

(Games this week: WAS(+6.5)-BAL, JAX-CHI(-2), HOU-NE(+7), LAC-DEN(+3))

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
 Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 177-305-2 SU (36.7%) and 230-248-6 ATS (48.1%). Furthermore, this past season saw the #1 pick, Bryce Young of the Panthers, guide his team to the worst won-lost percentage drop in his starts for any QB in the last 20 years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, CHICAGO, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 110-106 ATS (50.9%) in home games but just 94-115 ATS (45%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 32-94 SU and 52-72-2 ATS (41.9%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON, CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 17 games, going 17-110 SU and 49-75-3 ATS (39.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, NEW ENGLAND 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Scoring more than 17 points is a key benchmark for outright & ATS success for rookie quarterbacks
Since 2009, rookie starting quarterbacks whose teams have scored 17 points or less in a game are a brutal 28-256 SU and 57-220-7 ATS (20.6%), as opposed to 225-141 SU and 260-96-9 ATS (73%) when topping that point benchmark.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional & non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 41-92 SU and 54-75-4 ATS (41.9%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match (FADE): DENVER

Since 2018, rookie QBs are just 24-45 SU and 30-38-1 ATS (44.1%) versus non-conference foes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, WASHINGTON

Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 46-51 SU but 58-39 ATS (59.8%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QB’s
 In their last 138 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 45-93 SU and 61-75-2 ATS (44.9%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These NFL betting trend systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This year, there are two different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets) and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta).

(Games this week: ATL(-6)-CAR, BUF-NYJ(+2))

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 22-33 SU & 22-32-1 ATS (40.7%) in their L55 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 9-17-1 ATS (34.6%) in their L27 Monday Night contests.
System Match (FADE): NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 116-68 SU and 97-76-11 ATS (56.1%).
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 –Veteran QB’s have shown a tendency to lead their teams back well after losses
In their last 135 starts with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 73-66 SU and 77-59-3 ATS (56.6%). This trend dates back to 2016.
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 41-30 SU but 26-44-1 ATS (37.1%).
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games. 

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 33-35 SU & 39-27-2 ATS (59.1%) in the last 68.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5 at SEA)

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 23-20 SU but 14-27-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 37-25 SU and 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+3.5 vs. SF)

Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 4-18 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in their last 22, scoring just 14.5 PPG. In terms of totals, 16 of the L20 (80%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
System Matches: FADE SEATTLE (+3.5 vs. SF), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 49)

A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 17-16 SU but 13-20 ATS (39.4%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+3.5 vs. SF)

There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 17-18 SU and 23-11-1 ATS (67.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5 at SEA)

 Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last five seasons, going 24-30 SU and 19-34-1 ATS (35.8%).
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+3.5 vs SF)

More on totals, there have been 30 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 22-8 rate (73.3%).
System Match: PLAY UNDER in SF-SEA (*if the total gets to 50 or more, currently at 49) 

Good TNF Team Trends
Seattle 9-5 SU and 8-4-2 ATS in the last 14
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+3.5 vs. SF)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 17-19 SU and 21-13-2 ATS (61.8%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+3.5 vs CIN)

In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 25-22 SU and 17-28-2 ATS (37.8%) in the last 47. Under the total is also 26-13 (66.7%) in the last 39.
System Matches: FADE NY GIANTS (+3.5 vs. CIN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48)

SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 9-22 SU and ATS (29%) in their last 31 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-3.5 at NYG)

Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-20 SU and 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%) in their last 32, but those coming off a win are on a current 21-4 SU and 16-9 ATS (64%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+3.5 vs CIN)

Bad SNF Team Trends
Cincinnati 1-8 SU and 4-5 ATS in the last nine
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-3.5 at NYG) 

Under the total SNF Team Trends
NY Giants nine straight Unders, scoring 11.3 PPG
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-NYG (o/u at 48) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 12-10 SU and 14-7-1 ATS (66.7%) dating back to September ’21. The last 20 of these games have seen UNDER the total go 17-2-1 (89.5%) as well, games producing just 35.5 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY NY JETS (+2 vs BUF), also PLAY UNDER in BUF-NYG (o/u at 41)

Home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 15-14 SU and 10-18-1 ATS (35.7%) in their L29 tries.
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (+2 vs BUF)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 33-31 SU but just 22-40-2 ATS (35.5%) in the L64 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (-2 at NYJ)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Buffalo 14-6 SU & 11-9 ATS primetime run
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-2 at NYJ)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends

NY Giants 4-22 SU since last b2b wins (12-14 ATS)
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+3.5 vs. CIN)

NY Jets 2-13 SU while going 4-11 ATS
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (+2 vs BUF)

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Seattle 9-4 Under in the last 13
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-SEA (o/u at 49)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following NFL betting trend systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 15-39 SU and 12-38-4 ATS (24%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (+1 at TEN)

The following systems and NFL betting trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.

Pre-bye week system #4
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 32-18-3 ATS since 2015, 64%, +12.2 Units, 24.4% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3 vs. DET)

Pre-bye week system #7
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 28-7-1 SU and 24-11-1 ATS since 2009, 68.6%, +11.9 Units, 34% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-2 vs. JAX) 

* Please note that the NFL betting trend systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Chicago Bears Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/13 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)

Chicago has been one of the league’s worst long run teams in terms of pre-bye week performance, 8-17 SU and 10-15 ATS since 1999, however, they did win last year.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-2 vs JAX)

The Bears are on an 8-4 Over the total surge in pre-bye week games since 2012.
System Match (PLAY OVER): JAX-CHI (o/u at 45)

Dallas Cowboys Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/13 vs. Detroit Lions

Dallas has won its last five pre-bye week games ATS overall after a 3-8 ATS skid prior – 4-0 ATS under Mike McCarthy
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3 vs DET)

The Cowboys are 6-3 Under the total in their last nine pre-bye week games
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-DAL (o/u at 52)

Post-Bye Week Systems and Trends

The following systems and NFL betting trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.

Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 107-45 SU and 90-58-4 ATS since 1999, 60.8%, +26.2 Units, 17.7% ROI, Grade 65)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CHARGERS (-3 at DEN), DETROIT (-3 at DAL)

Post-bye week road favorite subsystems:
Road favorites vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 32-16 ATS since 2002, 66.7%, +14.4 Units, 30% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-3 at DEN)

Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 22-18 SU and 25-13-2 ATS since 2015, 65.8%, +10.7 Units, 28.2% ROI, Grade 66)
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+8.5 at PHI) 

Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 40-18 SU and 33-23-2 ATS since ’99, 58.9%, +7.7 Units, 13.8% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-1 at TEN)

Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 27-18-2 since 2010, 60%, +7.2 Units, 16% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-DEN (o/u at 35.5) 

Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 19-9 SU and ATS since 2019, 67.9%, +9.1 Units, 32.5% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3 vs DET)

Post-bye week system #8:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 31-10 since ‘21, 75.6%, +20 Units, 48.8% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-DEN (o/u at 35.5), DET-DAL (o/u at 52)

Post-bye week system #9:
Play against teams coming off their bye week after a loss to a divisional opponent prior to the bye. (Record: 25-15 SU and 26-11-3 ATS since 2008, 70.3%, +13.9 Units, 37.6% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+3 vs LAC) 

Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 30-14-1 Under since ’92, 68.2%, +14.6 Units, 33.2% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-PHI (o/u at 42.5)

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Detroit Lions Post-Bye Week Game: 10/13 at Dallas Cowboys

· Detroit is 8-3-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012. However, one of the losses was a 24-6 decision at Dallas in 2022
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 at DAL)

· The Lions have gone 15-5 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 2004.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-DAL (o/u at 52)

Los Angeles Chargers Post-Bye Week Game: 10/13 at Denver Broncos

·The Chargers have gone UNDER the total in seven of their last 10 post-bye week games
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-DEN (o/u at 35.5)

· The Chargers are on a 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS skid in their last 11 post-bye week divisional games
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-3 at DEN) 

Philadelphia Eagles Post-Bye Week Game: 10/13 vs. Cleveland Browns

· Philadelphia is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven post-bye week games when favored by a TD or more
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-8.5 vs CLE)

· Philadelphia is 7-2 Under the total in the last six post-bye week games vs. AFC foes
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-PHI (o/u at 42.5) 

Tennessee Titans Post-Bye Week Game: 10/13 vs. Indianapolis Colts

· The Titans have won eight straight post-bye week games while going 7-0-1 ATS
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+1 vs IND)

· Tennessee is 12-4 SU and 11-3-2 ATS in its last 16 post-bye week home games
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+1 vs. IND)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +3 (+4.3)
2. DENVER +3 (+2.7)
3. CLEVELAND +9 (+2.0)
4. NY GIANTS +3.5 (+1.3)
5(tie). INDIANAPOLIS +1 (+1.1)
NY JETS +2.5 (+1.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA -6 (+2.6)
2. BALTIMORE -6.5 (+1.3)
3. CHICAGO -2 (+1.2)
4. GREEN BAY -5 (+1.1)
5. HOUSTON -7 (+0.3) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER +3 (+4.1)
2. SEATTLE +3.5 (+2.4)
3. NY GIANTS +3.5 (+2.0)
4. INDIANAPOLIS +1 (+1.8)
5. NY JETS +2.5 (+1.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA -6 (+2.4)
2. CHICAGO -2 (+1.6)
3(tie). BALTIMORE -6.5 (+1.2)
GREEN BAY -5 (+1.2)
PITTSBURGH -3 (+1.2) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARI-GB OVER 47.5 (+1.9)
2. TB-NO OVER 41.5 (+1.3)
3. BUF-NYJ OVER 41 (+1.0)
4. HOU-NE OVER 38 (+0.7)
5. PIT-LVR OVER 36.5 (+0.6)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-DAL UNDER 52 (-3.0)
2. CIN-NYG UNDER 48 (-2.7)
3. SF-SEA UNDER 49 (-2.5)
4. IND-TEN UNDER 43 (-2.1)
5. JAX-CHI UNDER 44 (-1.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +3 (+5.2)
2. INDIANAPOLIS +1 (+4.1)
3. NY JETS +2.5 (+4.0)
4. CLEVELAND +9 (+2.6)
5. JACKSONVILLE +2 (+2.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA -6 (+2.7)
2. PITTSBURGH -3 (+2.5)
3. BALTIMORE -6.5 (+2.4)
4. SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 (+1.6)
5. TAMPA BAY -3.5 (+0.7) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PIT-LVR OVER 36.5 (+3.3)
2. HOU-NE OVER 38 (+2.9)
3. ARI-GB OVER 47.5 (+1.8)
4. IND-TEN OVER 43 (+1.6)
5. BUF-NYJ OVER 41 (+1.4) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CIN-NYG UNDER 48 (-2.6)
2. ATL-CAR UNDER 47 (-2.5)
3. SF-SEA UNDER 49 (-1.9)
4. TB-NO UNDER 41.5 (-1.8)
5. JAX-CHI UNDER 44 (-1.6) 

Here are 19 top NFL betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter: 

* Jared Goff (DET) is 28-25 SU but 37-16 ATS (69.8%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +1.5, Team average PF: 24.1
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 at DAL)

* Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 18-3 SU and 13-7-1 ATS (65%) as a home favorite. The average line was -7.4, Team average PF: 30.7
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-9 vs. CLE)

* Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS (86%) as a home underdog. The average line was +2.6, Team average PF: 27.6
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+2.5 vs. BUF)

* Justin Fields (PIT) is 10-26 SU and 13-21-2 ATS (38.2%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.3, Team average PF: 19.3
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-3 at LVR)

* Trevor Lawrence (JAC) is 3-11 SU and ATS (21.4%) in non-conference games. The average line was +3.7, Team average PF: 16.7
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+2 vs. CHI)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* ARIZONA is 27-19 ATS (58.7%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 25-17 ATS (59.5%) as an underdog since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+5 at GB) 

* ATLANTA is 32-56 ATS (36.4%) as a favorite since 2014
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-6 at CAR) 

* BALTIMORE is 49-56 ATS (46.7%) as a favorite since 2015
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-6.5 vs. WAS)

* BUFFALO is 26-21 ATS (55.3%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-2.5 at NYJ) 

* CAROLINA is 14-27 ATS (34.1%) at home since 2019
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+6 vs. ATL)

* CHICAGO is 25-42 ATS (37.3%) in road/neutral games since 2016
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-2 vs. JAX)

* CINCINNATI is 51-29 ATS (63.8%) in road/neutral games since 2015
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-3.5 at NYG)

* CLEVELAND is 12-8 ATS (60%) vs. non-conference foes since 2020
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+9 at PHI) 

* DALLAS is 27-19 ATS (58.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+3 vs. DET)

* DENVER is 94-59 Under the total (61.4%) since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAC-DEN (o/u at 35.5) 

* DETROIT is 38-16 ATS (70.4%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3 at DAL)

* GREEN BAY is 29-17 ATS (63%) at home since 2019
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-5 vs. ARI) 

* JACKSONVILLE is 10-33 ATS (23.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* JACKSONVILLE is 34-23 UNDER the total (59.6%) since 2021
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+2 vs. CHI), also PLAY UNDER in JAX-CHI (o/u at 44)

* LAS VEGAS is 30-43 ATS (41.1%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (+3 vs. PIT)

* NEW ENGLAND is 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+7 vs. HOU) 

* NEW ORLEANS is 26-18 ATS (59.1%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 21-38 ATS (35.6%) at home since 2017
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs. TB)

* NY GIANTS are 48-23 UNDER the total (67.6%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in CIN-NYG (o/u at 48) 

* NY JETS are 18-31 ATS (36.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
System Match: FADE NY JETS (+2.5 vs. BUF)

* PHILADELPHIA is 14-26 ATS (35%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-9 vs. CLE)

* PITTSBURGH is 20-29 ATS (40.8%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 96-62 UNDER the total (60.8%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-3 at LVR), also PLAY UNDER in PIT-LVR (o/u at 36.5)

* SAN FRANCISCO is 19-14 ATS (57.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5 at SEA)

* SEATTLE is 33-21 ATS (61.1%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 32-22 ATS (59.3%) as an underdog since 2016
Systems Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+3.5 vs. SF)

* TAMPA BAY is 24-34 ATS (41.4%) when coming off SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY is 32-46 ATS (41%) as a favorite since 2014
Systems Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-3.5 at NO)

* TENNESSEE is 23-19 ATS (54.8%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (-1 vs. IND)

* WASHINGTON is 20-9 ATS (69%) when coming off a SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 39-31 UNDER the total (55.7%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+6.5 at BAL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 51.5)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action: 

(105) SAN FRANCISCO at (106) SEATTLE
* FAVORITES are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the SF-SEA series in Seattle
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO ATS

(267) ARIZONA at (268) GREEN BAY
* The last four games of the ARI-GB series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(281) ATLANTA at (282) CAROLINA
* UNDERDOGS are on a 7-1 ATS run in the ATL-CAR series
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS

(285) CINCINNATI at (286) NY GIANTS
* UNDERDOGS are on a 5-0-1 ATS run in the CIN-NYG series
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS

(273) CLEVELAND at (274) PHILADELPHIA
* HOME TEAMS have won the last six ATS in the CLE-PHI series
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(283) DETROIT at (284) DALLAS
* ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the DET-DAL series
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(269) HOUSTON at (270) NEW ENGLAND
* HOME TEAMS are on 11-3 ATS run in the HOU-NE series
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS

(275) INDIANAPOLIS at (276) TENNESSEE
* FAVORITES are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the IND-TEN series at Tennessee

(263) JACKSONVILLE vs. (264) CHICAGO
* FAVORITES are on a 5-1 ATS run in the JAC-CHI h2h series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(277) LA CHARGERS at (278) DENVER
* DENVER is on a 5-2-1 ATS run hosting LA Chargers
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(279) PITTSBURGH at (280) LAS VEGAS
* The last four games of the PIT-LVR series went UNDER the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(271) TAMPA BAY at (272) NEW ORLEANS
* ROAD TEAMS are on a 7-1 ATS run in the TB-NO series
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY ATS

(265) WASHINGTON at (266) BALTIMORE
* UNDER the total is 5-2 in the WAS-BAL series since 1997
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total(287) BUFFALO at (288) NY JETS
* UNDERDOGS are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the BUF-NYJ series at New York
System Match: PLAY NY JETS ATS

For more NFL Week 6 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 6 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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