Week 6 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 6. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Post-bye week system #7: Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-18-1 since 2021, 68.9%, +20.2 units, 34.8% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WAS (o/u at 49.5)
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-4.5 at MIA)
* TENNESSEE is 10-1 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-LVR (o/u at 41.5)
* In Monday Night Football games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-30 SU but 16-39-2 ATS (29.1%) in the last 57.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)
* NY GIANTS are 26-6 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYG (o/u at 40.5)
* Home teams have historically dominated the Browns-Steelers AFC North rivalry, going 20-7-1 SU and 19-8-1 ATS since 2012 (including seven straight SU and ATS wins)
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-5.5 vs CLE)
* In non-conference games, re-tread coaches have really struggled, going 43-60 ATS (41.6%) over the last decade, including 16-30 ATS (34.8%) over the last 3+ seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND
#1 Underpriced underdog according to the Makinen Bettors Ratings: NY JETS +7.5 vs Denver (projections have line at NYJ +2.9)
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(105) PHILADELPHIA (4-1) at (106) NY GIANTS (1-4)
* NY GIANTS are 15-26 SU but 24-15 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll boasts a decent 13-20 SU and 19-15 ATS record when coming off an outright loss since 2022
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 13-3 SU but 4-11 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-27 ATS (34.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-7 at NYG)
* NY GIANTS are 59-29 Under the total (67%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS are 26-6 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 23-9 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 11-2 Under the total in the last 13 games when coming off an outright loss
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 20-10 Under the total in his last 30 road games
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYG (o/u at 40.5)
(251) DENVER (3-2) vs (252) NY JETS (0-5)
* NY JETS are on an 8-23 SU and 7-23 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss since 2011
* NY JETS are 22-46 ATS (32.4%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 11-29 SU and 15-23-2 ATS (40.5%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.1, Team average PF: 19.7
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+7.5 vs DEN)
* DENVER is 25-35 ATS (41.7%) as a favorite since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-7.5 vs NYJ)
* DENVER is 102-68 Under the total (60%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-NYJ (o/u at 43.5)
(253) CLEVELAND (1-4) at (254) PITTSBURGH (3-1)
* CLEVELAND is 22-40 ATS (35.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+5.5 at PIT)
* PITTSBURGH is 31-18 SU but 14-33 ATS vs. poor offenses scoring <19 PPG since 2011
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is on an 8-1 SU and ATS run as a divisional home favorite
* PITTSBURGH is 24-32 ATS (42.9%) as a favorite since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of PITTSBURGH (-5.5 vs CLE)
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 22-13 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
* PITTSBURGH is 103-72 Under the total (58.9%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 35-12 Under the total vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG since 2013
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in CLE-PIT (o/u at 37.5)
(255) ARIZONA (2-3) at (256) INDIANAPOLIS (4-1)
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 6-3 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last nine games as a road underdog to the AFC
* ARIZONA is 32-22 ATS (59.3%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 31-19 ATS (62%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+7 at IND)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 25-19 ATS (56.8%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-7 vs ARI)
* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on 6-3 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ARI-IND (o/u at 46.5)
(257) LA RAMS (3-2) at (258) BALTIMORE (1-4)
* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is 8-6 SU but 4-9 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022
* LA RAMS are 26-15 ATS (63.4%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (-7.5 at BAL)
* LA RAMS are 53-43 Under the total (55.2%) since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-BAL (o/u at 44.5)
* BALTIMORE is 13-15 SU but 21-7 ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+7.5 vs LAR)
(259) SEATTLE (3-2) at (260) JACKSONVILLE (4-1)
* SEATTLE is 22-9 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2011
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 27-13 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (seven days) since 2019
* JACKSONVILLE is 41-33 Under the total (55.4%) since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in SEA-JAX (o/u at 47.5)
* SEATTLE is 36-25 ATS (59%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 23-16-1 ATS (59%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* SEATTLE is 38-28 ATS (57.6%) as an underdog since 2016
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 8-17 SU and ATS (32%) as a road underdog. The average line was +7.2, Team average PF: 17.1
Trends Match: 3 PLAYS, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (+1.5 at JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE is 21-28 ATS (42.9%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS with his team coming off an upset win since 2022
* JACKSONVILLE is 10-49 SU and 16-42 ATS versus NFC foes since 201
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of JACKSONVILLE (-1.5 vs SEA)
(261) DALLAS (2-2) at (262) CAROLINA (2-3)
* DALLAS is 27-9 SU and 24-12 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS is 30-23 ATS (56.6%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
* DALLAS is 23-15 ATS (60.5%) in road/neutral games since 2021
* CAROLINA is 20-29 ATS (40.8%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is 21-33 ATS (38.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3 at CAR)
(263) LA CHARGERS (3-2) at (264) MIAMI (1-4)
* LA CHARGERS are on 27-10 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 16-3 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-MIA (o/u at 44.5)
* LA CHARGERS’ Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 32-11 SU and 29-12 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-4.5 at MIA)
* MIAMI is 61-32 ATS (65.6%) at home since 2014
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on a 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovalioa is 26-9 SU and 23-12 ATS (65.7%) in home games. The average line was -3.7, Team average PF: 25.1
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in his last 12 starts versus teams with winning records
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 2 FADES of MIAMI (+4.5 vs LAC)
(265) SAN FRANCISCO (4-1) at (266) TAMPA BAY (4-1)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 25-16 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-TB (o/u at 47.5)
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 15-9 SU but 7-17 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
* TAMPA BAY is 38-53 ATS (41.8%) at home since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-3 vs SF)
(267) TENNESSEE (1-4) at (268) LAS VEGAS (1-4)
* TENNESSEE is on an 8-32 SU and 9-30-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 34-49-1 ATS (41%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+4.5 at LVR)
* TENNESSEE is 10-1 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-LVR (o/u at 41.5)
* LAS VEGAS is 10-18 SU and 7-21 ATS vs. poor teams with point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2018
* LAS VEGAS’ Geno Smith is 7-11 SU but 10-8 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2013
* LAS VEGAS is 35-51 ATS (40.7%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 16-21 ATS (43.2%) as a favorite since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of LAS VEGAS (-4.5 vs TEN)
(269) NEW ENGLAND (3-2) at (270) NEW ORLEANS (1-4)
* NEW ORLEANS is 25-44 ATS (36.2%) at home since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs NE)
(271) CINCINNATI (2-3) at (272) GREEN BAY (2-1)
* CINCINNATI is 57-66 SU but 73-47 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI is 73-57 SU and 79-51 ATS when playing on normal rest (seven days) since 2012
* CINCINNATI is 25-18 ATS (58.1%) as an underdog since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+14 at GB)
* GREEN BAY is 93-20 SU and 72-39 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-14 vs CIN)
(273) DETROIT (4-1) at (274) KANSAS CITY (2-3)
* DETROIT is 19-5 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 11-11 SU and 18-4 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+2.5 at KC)
* KANSAS CITY is 18-9 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog since 2016
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on a 16-4 SU and 13-6 ATS surge in non-conference games
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 30-11 SU and 25-14 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DET)
* KANSAS CITY is 74-40 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on a 9-4 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC (o/u at 52.5)
(275) BUFFALO (4-1) at (276) ATLANTA (2-2)
* BUFFALO is 31-24 ATS (56.4%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)
* ATLANTA’s Raheem Morris is on a 13-17 SU and 11-19 ATS slide in home games
* ATLANTA is 21-37 ATS (36.2%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 15-34 ATS (30.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott is 27-14 Under the total when coming off an outright loss since 2017
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 35-21 Under the total on the road since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)
(277) CHICAGO (2-2) at (278) WASHINGTON (3-2)
* CHICAGO is 17-4 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WAS (o/u at 49.5)
* CHICAGO is 32-43 ATS (42.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 29-47 ATS (38.2%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 30-44-1 ATS (40.5%) as an underdog since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 26-15-1 ATS (63.4%) when coming off a SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 14-12 SU and 19-6 ATS when coming off an upset win since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs CHI)
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Dillon Gabriel (Cleveland), and Jaxson Dart (NY Giants).
(Games this week: PHI-NYG(+7), CLE(+5.5)-PIT, TEN(+4.5)-LVR)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
· The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 138-126 ATS (52.3%) in home games but just 122-144 ATS (45.9%) in road/neutral games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
· Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 22 games, going 22-123 SU and 58-83-4 ATS (41.1%).
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as small road dogs
· Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as small road underdogs, going 21-53 SU but 30-42-2 ATS (41.7%) when catching +4.5 points or fewer.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
– Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 49-107 SU and 65-86-4 ATS (43%) versus divisional opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS, CLEVELAND
– Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 54-66 SU but 68-51 ATS (57.1%).
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
· In their last 172 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 55-117 SU and 77-92-2 ATS (45.6%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS, CLEVELAND
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
· Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 21-23 SU and 28-14-2 ATS (66.7%) in their last 44 such tries.
System Match (PLAY ATS): NY GIANTS
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Joe Flacco (Cincinnati), and Geno Smith (Las Vegas).
(Games this week: CLE-PIT(-5.5), TEN-LVR(-4.5), CIN(+14)-GB)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of October
· I just showed how these veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, these QBs have rebounded nicely in the month of October, going 45-37 SU and 43-36-3 ATS (54.4%) since 2009.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, LAS VEGAS, CINCINNATI
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
· The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 126-82 SU and 108-89-11 ATS (54.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, LAS VEGAS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
· Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 86-72 SU and 85-71-2 ATS (54.5%).
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last four years
· Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 18-28 SU and 14-32 ATS (30.4%).
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
· In their last 57 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 29-30 SU and 23-35-1 ATS (39.7%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: DEN-NYJ(+7.5), SEA-JAX(-1.5), DAL(-3)-CAR, NE-NO(+3.5), CHI(+4.5)-WAS)
– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 27-116-1 SU (19%) and 70-74 ATS (48.6%) when catching seven points or more since 2017.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): NY JETS
– Since 2015, rookie head coaches have been solid in non-conference games, going 92-84-7 ATS (52.3%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE, NEW ORLEANS
– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse, going 46-69-6 ATS (40%) since December 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, DALLAS, NEW ORLEANS, CHICAGO
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: NE(-3.5)-NO, TEN-LVR(-4.5))
– As favorites since 2015, retread coaches have gone 92-68 SU but just 59-90-11 ATS, for 39.6%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS
– In non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 43-60 ATS (41.6%) over the last decade, including 16-30 ATS (34.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND
– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slowly at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2015, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 102-137 ATS (42.7%), while in Weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 81-74 ATS (52.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS
– When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 137-176 ATS (43.8%) since mid-2022.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 27-24 SU but 16-33-2 ATS (32.7%) in the last 51. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 44-27 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+7 vs PHI)
· Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 6-22 SU and 10-18 ATS (35.7%) in their last 28, scoring just 15.3 PPG. In terms of totals, 18 of the last 26 (69.2%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+7 vs PHI)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYG (o/u at 40.5)
· There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 21-21 SU and 27-14-1 ATS (65.9%) record.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-7 at NYG)
· Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last five seasons, going 27-34 SU and 23-37-1 ATS (38.3%).
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+7 vs PHI)
Bad TNF Team Trend
NY Giants on a 0-8 SU slide
Trend Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+285 vs PHI)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 24-15 SU and 17-22 ATS (43.6%) in their last 39 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DET)
· In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 27-25 SU and 20-30-2 ATS (40%) in the last 51. Under the total is also 31-13 (70.5%) in the last 44.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DET)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC (o/u at 52.5)
· SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 12-26 SU and 13-25 ATS (34.2%) in their last 38 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DET)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-22-1 SU and 15-21-1 ATS (41.7%) in their last 37, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-10 SU and 22-16 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DET)
· Strangely, the league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 14-10 SU but 6-18 ATS (25%) in their last 24 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2.5 at KC)
Bad SNF Team Trend
Detroit 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS in the last 10
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2.5 at KC)
Over the Total SNF Team Trend
Kansas City 15-9 Over since 2016, combined avg. 51.5 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-KC (o/u at 52.5)
Under the Total SNF Team Trend
Detroit 8-1-1 Under in the last 10
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC (o/u at 52.5)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 15-19 SU and 18-15-1 ATS (54.5%) dating back to September 2021. The last 32 of these games have seen UNDER the total go 22-8-2 (73.3%) as well, games producing just 39.8 PPG.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)
· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-30 SU but 16-39-2 ATS (29.1%) in the last 57.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)
·In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 22-20 SU and 26-16 ATS (61.9%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs CHI)
· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 44-37 SU but just 31-48-2 ATS (39.2%) in the last 81 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL), WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs CHI)
Under the Total MNF Team Trend
Chicago 10-4-1 Under in the last 15
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WAS (o/u at 49.5)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Buffalo 19-8 SU and 15-12 ATS primetime run
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Chicago 4-14 SU and 6-12 ATS in the last 18
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4.5 at WAS)
NY Giants 4-25 SU since last back-to-back wins (12-17 ATS)
Trend Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+7 vs PHI)
Washington 14-23 and 13-23-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs CHI)
Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Atlanta 15-2 to the Under in the last 17
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 43-15 SU and 34-22-2 ATS (60.7%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 63-38 SU but 41-56-4 ATS (42.3%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE ATS): LAS VEGAS (-4.5 vs TEN)
Pre-Bye Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Pre-bye week system #5
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 35-22-3 ATS since ’15, 61.4%, +10.8 units, 18.9% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+7.5 vs LAR)
Pre-bye week system #6
Play on any road team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 26-18 SU and 29-13-2 ATS since ’96, 69%, +14.7 units, 35% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)
Pre-bye week system #8
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 29-7-1 SU and 25-11-1 ATS since 2009, 69.4%, +12.9 units, 35.8% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)
Pre-bye week system #9
Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 42-7 SU and 34-14-1 ATS since ’08, 70.8%, +18.6 units, 38.8% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+7.5 vs LAR)
* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/12 vs. Los Angeles Rams
· Baltimore is just 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 pre-bye week home games
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+7.5 vs LAR)
· The Ravens are on an 8-4 Under the total run in pre-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-BAL (o/u at 44.5)
Buffalo Bills Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 10/13 at Atlanta Falcons
· Buffalo is on a run of 14-4 Over the total in pre-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)
· The Bills have lost eight straight pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes while going 2-5-1 ATS. They have also gone Over the total in six straight games while allowing 32.2 PPG in that scenario
Trend Match (FADE): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)
Post Bye-Week NFL Betting Trends and Systems
The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 25-21 SU and 29-15-2 ATS since 2015, 65.9%, +12.5 units, 28.4% ROI, Grade 66)
System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY (-14 vs CIN), ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)
Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 45-18 SU and 36-25-2 ATS since ’99, 59%, +8.5 units, 13.9% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)
Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 28-18-2 since 2010, 60.1%, +8.2 units, 17.8% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-PIT (o/u at 37.5)
Post-bye week system #5:
Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 18-8-1 ATS since 2014, 69.2%, +9.2 units, 35.4% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-14 vs CIN)
Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 24-13 SU and 26-11 ATS since 2019, 70.3%, +13.9 units, 37.6% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4.5 at WAS)
Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-18-1 since 2021, 68.9%, +20.2 units, 34.8% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WAS (o/u at 49.5)
Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after yielding 35+ points before the bye. (Record: 23-11-1 Under since 2014, 67.6%, +10.9 units, 32.1% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-GB (o/u at 44.5)
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons Post-Bye Week Game: MON 10/13 vs. Buffalo Bills
· Atlanta is on a 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS run in its last 21 post-bye week games but did lose last year
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)
· The Falcons are 12-4-1 Under the total in their last 17 post-bye week home games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)
Chicago Bears Post-Bye Week Game: MON 10/13 at Washington Commanders
· Chicago is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 post-bye week games, including a loss to Washington on a game-ending Hail Mary pass last year
· The Bears haven’t won a post-bye week road game since 2013, going 0-5 SU and ATS since
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4.5 at WAS)
Green Bay Packers Post-Bye Week Game: 10/12 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
· Green Bay is 15-4 Under the total in the last 19 post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-GB (o/u at 44.5)
· The Packers are on a 14-1 SU and 10-4-1 ATS post-bye week run when favored by 3 points or more
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-14 vs CIN)
Pittsburgh Steelers Post-Bye Week Game: 10/12 vs. Cleveland Browns
· The Steelers are on an eight-game post-bye week game-winning streak, as well as a 5-game ATS winning streak in such games
· Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS in its last 13 post-bye week games when favored
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-5.5 vs CLE)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)
These are very good wrap up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY JETS, PITTSBURGH, INDIANAPOLIS, LA RAMS, SEATTLE, NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS, SAN FRANCISCO, CINCINNATI, DETROIT
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, LA RAMS, SEATTLE, NEW ENGLAND, CINCINNATI, DETROIT, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DENVER, LA RAMS, DALLAS, LA CHARGERS, NEW ENGLAND, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, SAN FRANCISCO, CINCINNATI, DETROIT, CHICAGO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SEATTLE
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ARI-IND, SEA-JAX, DAL-CAR, SF-TB, DET-KC, BUF-ATL
UNDER – CHI-WAS
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets have been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for handle has also produced a 74-62 (54.4%) record.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DEN-NYJ, ARI-IND, SEA-JAX, LAC-MIA, TEN-LVR, CHI-WAS
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): LAR-BAL, DAL-CAR, CIN-GB, DET-KC, BUF-ATL
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): BUF-ATL
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +2.5 (+2.6)
2. BALTIMORE +7.5 (+1.5)
3. MIAMI +4.5 (+1.4)
4. CAROLINA +3 (+1.0)
5. ATLANTA +4.5 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON -4.5 (+3.4)
2. PHILADELPHIA -7 (+1.8)
3. NEW ENGLAND -3.5 (+1.3)
4. INDIANAPOLIS -7 (+1.1)
5. DENVER -7.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +5.5 (+1.8)
2(tie). NY GIANTS +7 (+1.7)
BALTIMORE +7.5 (+1.7)
4. CAROLINA +3 (+1.3)
5. NY JETS +7.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON -4.5 (+4.0)
2. BUFFALO -4.5 (+0.6)
3. LA CHARGERS -4.5 (+0.3)
4. JACKSONVILLE -3.5 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-WAS OVER 49.5 (+3.0)
2. CLE-PIT OVER 37.5 (+2.8)
3(tie). PHI-NYG OVER 40.5 (+1.6)
DEN-NYJ OVER 43.5 (+1.6)
5. LAR-BAL OVER 44.5 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 4 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUF-ATL UNDER 49.5 (-2.8)
2. DET-KC UNDER 52.5 (-0.8)
3. SF-TB UNDER 47.5 (-0.3)
4. SEA-JAX UNDER 47.5 (-0.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS +7.5 (+4.6)
2. ARIZONA +7 (+4.0)
3. BALTIMORE +7.5 (+3.2)
4. CINCINNATI +14 (+2.1)
5. SAN FRANCISCO +3 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -7 (+3.2)
2. LA CHARGERS -4.5 (+2.0)
3. LAS VEGAS -4.5 (+1.3)
4. WASHINGTON -4.5 (+0.8)
5. BUFFALO -4.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-WAS OVER 49.5 (+2.2)
2. LAR-BAL OVER 44.5 (+1.9)
3. TEN-LVR OVER 41.5 (+1.6)
4(tie). DAL-CAR OVER 49.5 (+1.2)
LAC-MIA OVER 44.5 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SEA-JAX UNDER 47.5 (-2.6)
2. SF-TB UNDER 47.5 (-1.7)
3. BUF-ATL UNDER 49.5 (-1.3)
4(tie). CLE-PIT UNDER 37.5 (-1.0)
DET-KC UNDER 52.5 (-1.0)
Comparing Effective Yards Per Play Ratings to This Week’s Matchups
Here are the top six games for this weekend’s games, as far as differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home field advantage built into the differences. Starting in Week 4 of the 2025 season, these plays are 6-6 ATS (50%).
1. (277) CHICAGO BEARS at (278) WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Actual Home Line: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS -18.4
Difference: 13.9 – Favors: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
2. (253) CLEVELAND BROWNS at (254) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Actual Home Line: PITTSBURGH STEELERS -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PITTSBURGH STEELERS +6.6
Difference: 12.1 – Favors: CLEVELAND BROWNS
3. (271) CINCINNATI BENGALS at (272) GREEN BAY PACKERS
Actual Home Line: GREEN BAY PACKERS -14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GREEN BAY PACKERS -25.3
Difference: 11.3 – Favors: GREEN BAY PACKERS
4. (275) BUFFALO BILLS at (276) ATLANTA FALCONS
Actual Home Line: ATLANTA FALCONS +4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ATLANTA FALCONS -6.3
Difference: 10.8 – Favors: ATLANTA FALCONS
5. (259) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at (260) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Actual Home Line: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +8.6
Difference: 10.1 – Favors: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
6. (267) TENNESSEE TITANS at (268) LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Actual Home Line: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -15.9
Difference: 9.4 – Favors: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(105) PHILADELPHIA at (106) NY GIANTS
* Under the total is 5-1 in the PHI-NYG NFC East rivalry in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYG (o/u at 40.5)
(251) DENVER vs (252) NY JETS
* Under the total is 3-1 in the DEN-NYJ series since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-NYJ (o/u at 43.5)
(253) CLEVELAND at (254) PITTSBURGH
* Home teams have historically dominated the CLE-PIT AFC North rivalry, going 20-7-1 SU and 19-8-1 ATS since 2012 (including seven straight SU and ATS wins)
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-5.5 vs CLE)
(255) ARIZONA at (256) INDIANAPOLIS
* Under the total is 6-1 in the Cardinals-Colts series since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ARI-IND (o/u at 46.5)
(257) LA RAMS at (258) BALTIMORE
* Baltimore is on a 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS run versus LAR since 2007
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+7.5 vs LAR)
(259) SEATTLE at (260) JACKSONVILLE
* Home teams have won and covered all six meetings between cross-country foes Seattle and Jacksonville since 2001
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (-1.5 vs SEA)
(261) DALLAS at (262) CAROLINA
* Favorites are on a 6-1 ATS run in the DAL-CAR series
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3 at CAR)
(263) LA CHARGERS at (264) MIAMI
* Miami is 4-2 SU and ATS versus LAC since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 vs LAC)
(265) SAN FRANCISCO at (266) TAMPA BAY
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the 49ers-Bucs cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-TB (o/u at 47.5)
(267) TENNESSEE at (268) LAS VEGAS
* Road teams are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in the TEN-LVR series since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+4.5 at LVR)
(269) NEW ENGLAND at (270) NEW ORLEANS
* New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in the series with New England since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs NE)
(271) CINCINNATI at (272) GREEN BAY
* Road teams are 4-1 ATS in the CIN-GB series since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+14 at GB)
(273) DETROIT at (274) KANSAS CITY
* Over the total is 7-1 in the Lions-Chiefs series since 1996, although it did go Under in the last matchup
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-KC (o/u at 52.5)
(275) BUFFALO at (276) ATLANTA
* Road teams are 4-1 ATS in the BUF-ATL non-conference series since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)
(277) CHICAGO at (278) WASHINGTON
* Washington is on a 12-4 SU and ATS surge in the last 16 games versus Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs CHI)
