Super Bowl LIX Futures Market Value Plays

Before we officially close the book on the NFL before the draft, let’s look ahead to next year and the possible Super Bowl LIX futures, including one I already have in my account. Before jumping in, my main goal in betting this early is to get the best number possible. I am looking at teams that I believe could gain some steam based on the offseason and see a change in the odds.

Super Bowl LIX: Teams that Will Adjust Lower

Green Bay 20-1/Detroit 12-1
Both teams fit the bill for Super Bowl future darlings that I think are priced correctly. Jordan Love has the chance to be this offseason’s Justin Fields, who we saw bet down in the MVP market all summer last year. Now, Love is way better than Fields, and his offensive weapons should take a step forward. But with the Packers already at 20-1 and Love at 12-1 in the MVP market, that improvement is already baked into the numbers. With the Packers, I would rather bet the division than the Super Bowl. They still have kicking issues that need to be addressed, and they will have a new defensive coordinator next season. I also do not see any move they can make that would compel me to want to jump in at a lower number. Their roster is fairly set, and I do not see them as players in the free agency market.

 

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The Lions are an interesting case as well. They return everyone, including Ben Johnson, whom no one expected to stay. The offense should be elite again next season, but the defense needs to be addressed, specifically the secondary. I believe 12-1 is a fair price, assuming they bring in one or two cornerbacks. However, that is not a given. If we see them make a move for secondary help, I could be a buyer if the price doesn’t adjust.

The Longshot

Los Angeles Rams 35-1
This was one of the two numbers that surprised me on the board. The Rams were in a tight game against the Lions in the playoffs. Had they won, there would have been a path for them to be champions this year. Now they have a full offseason to address the defense and they are not in the same cap trouble we saw last year. McVay got this team to overperform all season long, and now it is not just the Cooper Kupp show. I’m tempted to play them now at this number, but I do want to see if they can bring in some help before I jump at it. With San Francisco in the division, I doubt you see any adjustment to the odds in the short term. Once the draft is over, I’ll reassess.

The Bet in My Account

Kansas City Chiefs +750
It’s important to shop around in the Super Bowl market. You will see prices that vary from book to book, and on the Monday after the Super Bowl, I did just that and locked in Kansas City +750 to three-peat. Normally, I would not play a future that is sub 20-1 when I am tying up my money for a year, but I do not expect to see the Chiefs over 7-1 again unless we get it in-season next year. One of the main reasons I put this in the account was because I am projecting the Chiefs to add a wide receiver in free agency. If that happens to be Ridley or Tee Higgins, they will be launched up the board to the favorite. I wanted to get ahead of that move. They also will be a year better on the defensive side of the ball and only have two FAs who will affect the team, Sneed and Jones, who I expect will both be back.

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