NFL Week 1 Best Bets and Predictions:

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4; 41.5)

Sunday, 1:00 pm. (FOX)

Dave Canales takes over the reins as Carolina head coach. Time will tell if Canales can be a leader of men, but he has proven to be a bit of a quarterback whisperer over the last two years as Geno Smith (Seattle) and Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay) both had their respective career years under his tutelage.

 

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Bryce Young had a terrible rookie season, and where his ceiling resides still remains a question mark. However, he has a little more help this season at receiver with the additions of Diontae Johnson (acquired via trade from Pittsburgh) and first-rounder Xavier Legette (South Carolina).

The Carolina offense’s biggest acquisition may be on the interior of the offensive line, with guard Robert Hunt coming in from Miami. Hunt ranked sixth overall in PFF’s grades at the offensive guard position and only allowed pressure on 1.4% of his 360 pass plays, which was the lowest in the league last season. Damien Lewis (Seattle) is also an upper-half ranked guard, so the protection should be better for a young quarterback.

Carolina’s defense under Vic Fangio disciple Ejero Evero also improved, allowing 31.0 points and 342.2 total yards per game in six games before the bye, but just 20.9 points and 267.6 total yards per game in the final 11 games.

Coaching should also be improved as Canales certainly is conveying more belief in Young than Frank Reich ever did.

Meanwhile, New Orleans continues its transition on offense. Derek Carr once again has a new offensive coordinator (Klint Kubiak) and is behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Former 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning has been kicked out to right tackle and rookie Tailese Fuaga (Oregon State) will start on the left side.

Carr is just 48-62-3 as a favorite (21-37-2 as a fav of 3 or more points), while Dennis Allen is just 8-16-1 ATS in that role.

Week 1 divisional underdogs are close to 70% ATS over the last ten years and Carolina is a bit undervalued coming into the season.

NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Carolina Panthers +4

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-6; 41.5)

Sunday, 4:05 pm. (CBS)

After 14 seasons, the Pete Carroll era has come to an end in Seattle. Yes, Carroll brought a Vince Lombardi Trophy (Super Bowl XLVIII) to the Emerald City, but it had been time for change for a couple of years now.

Enter Mike Macdonald, who is now the youngest head coach in the NFL. However, he seems wise beyond his 37 years. As defensive coordinator, Macdonald helped the Baltimore Ravens defense leap from 28th to seventh in DVOA in his first season there, then first last season. Expect a more aggressive group all around under Macdonald.

Offensively, Ryan Grubb, who was the offensive coordinator for the national runner-up Washington Huskies, stays in Seattle (after a brief detour to Alabama) in the same role for Geno Smith. Grubb appears to be a better fit for Smith than Shane Waldron was, as he can take advantage of his quarterback’s deep-throwing ability more.

On the other side, Bo Nix will start his first game as a rookie for Denver. Rookie QBs starting on the road in Week 1 have been just under 50% ATS since the 1970 merger.

Nix looked good in his limited reps during preseason, but now he tries to become the first rookie QB to win on the road in Week 1 since Sam Darnold in 2018.

Denver could end up being improved this season, but they still lack playmakers on offense especially at receiver (other than Courtland Sutton). Plus, while they showed gradual improvement from giving up a 70-burger at Miami last year, the defense lacks standout talent other than Patrick Surtain II at corner.

The market is sleeping on Seattle a bit this season, and the Seahawks should have them sleepless in Week 1.

NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks -6

Other NFL Week 1 Best Bets:
New York Jets +4.5 at San Francisco

Total of the Week:
Pittsburgh/Atlanta Under 42

Teaser of the Week:
Bengals -1.5/Raiders +9

For more NFL Week 1 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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