NFL Week 1 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my NFL Week 1 best bets:
Cleveland Browns (+5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
2024 was the year of the road favorite in the National Football League as road chalk went 80-28 SU. Even with that lopsided record for road favorites, it is difficult to trust the notoriously slow-starting Bengals in that role. Joe Burrow is 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in the first two games of the season.
Burrow has also had his struggles vs. the Browns defense as he is just 3-5 against Cleveland. The Browns can get after the passer, and the Bengals offensive line still has question marks with a rookie (Dylan Fairchild) starting at left guard and two players (LT Orlando Brown and RG Lucas Patrick) returning from finishing 2024 on the IR.
Cincinnati’s defense also ranked 25th in the league last year in both total and scoring defense.
Understandably, it is hard to get excited betting on 40-year-old Joe Flacco, but this is the time to do it with a divisional home dog with Week 1 divisional home underdogs going 23-7 ATS since 2010, and 10-2 ATS since 2018.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +5.5
Atlanta Falcons +1.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are looking to win five consecutive NFC South division titles this season. Despite sweeping Tampa Bay last season, Atlanta had to settle for second in the division. This year, Atlanta’s QB of the future is now as Michael Penix, Jr takes over the reins.
While Tampa Bay comes into the season as the rightful division favorite, the Bucs do not come into the season exactly in peak form as they have several key injuries to begin the 2025 campaign, including LT Tristan Wirfs and WRs Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan OUT for this game.
Baker Mayfield did not regress with the departure of Dave Canales like many, including me, thought he would. He put up even bigger numbers with Liam Coen as the OC. Now Coen is gone to Jacksonville and Josh Grizzard, promoted from within, becomes Mayfield’s third OC in three seasons.
Atlanta has attempted to reinvigorate their defense with youth as they drafted Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr on the edge along with safety Xavier Watts. Meanwhile, the Bucs defense could be starting to show signs of age.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +1.5
Green Bay Packers -130 ML vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions swept the Packers last year and are 6-2 against the Pack since Jared Goff arrived in the Motor City.
It looked like it was all right there for the Lions last year as they went 15-2 and had home field throughout the playoffs. It was all right there until it wasn’t as Detroit laid an egg at home to the Washington Commanders in the divisional round.
Sometimes teams can be victims of their own success, and the Lions could find themselves in that spot this season as both of last year’s coordinators – OC Ben Johnson (Chicago) and DC Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) – are now head coaches elsewhere. In their places are DC Kelvin Sheppard, who was promoted from within but is a first-time play-caller and OC John Morton, who hasn’t called plays since 2017 for the Jets. This is a drop-off from what the Lions had.
In addition, Frank Ragnow retired, and Kevin Zeitler left via free agency, so you have three different positions on the offensive line that have changed. The Lions’ new interior offensive line will be tested immediately by Green Bay’s newest acquisition, Micah Parsons.
Despite the return of Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit is banged up all along the defensive line with Levi Onwuzurike out for the season, plus both Alim McNeill and Josh Paschal out for four weeks.
While Green Bay did lose both games to Detroit last season, both were close, and the Lions were 6-for-7 on fourth down, including scoring four touchdowns on said downs. That is due for some regression.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -130 ML
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Las Vegas Raiders/New England Patriots Over 44
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Atlanta Falcons +7.5/Chicago Bears +7.5 (6-point teaser)
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