There are 107 days until the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys kick-off the NFL season. It might seem like an eternity, but football is right around the corner. In fact, we’re only 72 days away from the Hall of Fame Game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions.
Last week, we got our first taste of the NFL season with the schedule release. Following that, books across the country hung lines for Week 1 of the regular season. It is a great appetizer for football-starved fans in the early summer. It is also a great tool to use for your handicapping for the 2025 campaign.
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These betting lines are our first glimpse at how oddsmakers and the betting market views these teams. Money is scant in the market, but we do get some minor moves on the betting lines. Those betting into the market this early in the offseason are the ones we want to pay attention to. The general public will not be investing its money into Week 1 lines for over three months.
With these lines now out – as well as a plethora of other markets to guide our hand – we can take our first crack at crafting market power ratings.
Market power ratings are a nifty trick I picked up from our former colleague here at VSiN – and current author of the Figure It Out newsletter – Jeff Fogle. It’s a pretty simple concept: Find the difference between two teams on a neutral by removing homefield advantage and craft a set of power ratings.
The ratings crafted will give you a sense of how the betting market views these teams. When we get closer to the first week of the season these will be different. Preseason games will have been played, injuries will have occured and more money will be in the market. All of that will shape how these teams are rated.
Still, doing this so early does give us an idea of where oddsmakers are starting with these teams. Outside of injuries to a quarterback or skill position player that can shape a team’s rating, these should look somewhat similar by the time Week 1 comes around.
So, without further ado, let’s take a look at our first set of market power ratings:
87: Eagles, Bills, Ravens
86: Chiefs
84: Lions, Chargers
83: Packers, Commanders, 49ers, Bengals, Rams
82: Broncos, Buccaneers, Vikings
81: Cowboys, Texans, Bears, Steelers
80: Seahawks, Patriots, Cardinals
79: Falcons, Dolphins, Jaguars
78: Raiders, Colts
77: Giants, Panthers
76: Browns, Titans, Jets
74: Saints
Isn’t it beautiful? Our first look at how the betting market rates the 2025 NFL teams. Before we move on to the specific teams that stick out, we should cover a few topics.
In order to calculate the ratings for these teams you must remove homefield advantage from the betting lines. But, what number should be used for homefield? For this exercise I used 1.5 as the number.
Some reading this might be shocked by how low that number is. Either you believe the traditional three points is how you determine homefield. Or maybe you just think it should be 2.5 points. The truth is that actual homefield advantage likely differs from team-to-team. But, we can calculate a general homefield based on the results of last season.
In the 2024 regular season home teams went 131-121 in regulation. The median result was zero and the average margin of victory at home was just 1.61 points. Playing at home last season meant almost nothing. However, not every season is like the last, so I felt using 1.5 was a safe spot to start for homefield advantage. There should be some small edge to playing in your own venue, but we might learn this season it means nothing once again.
With that in mind, we get to calculating the separation between the two teams on a neutral field. Simply remove homefield from the betting line for Week 1 and you get your difference. For example, the Eagles are -7 across the board in their opening game against the Cowboys. That means the market believes there to be a 5.5-point difference between the two teams on a neutral field if we’re using 1.5 as homefield.
If you look at the ratings you will see I have the difference between the two teams as six points. Considering the market feels comfortable letting the Eagles sit on a key number, I deem that as a sort of tiebreaker to round up to a nice even number.
With that in mind, let’s start to dive into the ratings. There are quite a few teams that I believe the market is mispricing, and that could lead to some opportunities in the first week and beyond. Diving into the evaluation of these teams will also give you a better of idea of how this exercise works.
Pittsburgh Steelers
As I write this in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, Aaron Rodgers is a free agent. The betting market believes he is a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
For Week 1 Pittsburgh is laying a field goal on the road against the New York Jets. That would mean a 4.5-point edge on a neutral, but the fact that the market is letting a key number sit out in the open means we can round that up to five points. The Steelers are clearly being priced like a team that will have Rodgers on the field in New York. Even if that is the case, we can make the argument they are being rated too highly.
Right now, the Super Bowl futures market gives Pittsburgh very similar odds to win it all as Houston or Chicago. They should be rated at or near the same level as those teams. For this exercise that landed them on the 81 line for me. Just two points behind teams like the Commanders – which we will get to – 49ers and Bengals. Is there really that miniscule a difference between those teams and the Steelers?
One could argue that Pittsburgh should be moved down the ratings, but remember that we have a number between it and New York. So, if we move down the Steelers we must move down the Jets. Even if we move down Pittsburgh just a single point that would put New York just one point ahead of New Orleans, the perceived worst team in the league.
To me, that is too low. The Jets do have talent on defense and head coach Aaron Glenn will be able to get the most out of that unit. The offense is not devoid of talent either. This team is in much better shape than that of the Saints, Browns or Titans.
The conclusion for me, is that Pittsburgh is too high and New York is too low. These two teams should be much closer to one another. It is why I made my first bet of the NFL regular season last week: Jets (+3).
Washington Commanders
Look at how much respect Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are getting after a run to the NFC Championship game. They are just one point behind the Chiefs in this iteration of the market ratings and three points behind the Lions. Remember, Washington closed as 7.5-point underdogs in the postseason meeting in January!
The Commanders deserve an upgrade after last season, but how much is too much? Bettors will have to make that distinction by the time the regular season comes around. Remember too, because they are facing the Giants we get a sense of where New York is rated as well.
As of Tuesday, Washington is laying a full touchdown at home against its division rival. On a neutral that would mean a 5.5-point difference, but once again the market is letting a key number sit on the board so we can round up. That puts New York on the 77 line with Carolina. It also means that the Giants are being rated as better than the Browns, Titans, Jets and Saints.
Perhaps you agree with that, or you believe the Giants are just as bad or worse than those teams. If the latter is the case, then the Commanders could be the play for you Week 1. But just realize how this team is already being rated. It seems that there will be little value in playing the Commanders early in the NFL season. Unless, they turn into an absolute powerhouse capable of winning the Super Bowl.
Anything is possible.
Los Angeles Chargers
The matchup between the Chiefs and Chargers in Brazil was one of the most fascinating results. This is on a true neutral, so the math was easy. The betting market views Kansas City as 2.5 points better on a neutral field. The fact that this is under a field goal means there is no rush to lay a good number with the favorite, so we round down to just two points.
Think about that: The betting market believes Los Angeles is just two points worse. This makes this a very difficult couplet to rate.
For example, the Chiefs are a team which has nearly identical odds to win the Super Bowl as the Ravens. They should be rated somewhat near the Ravens, but since Baltimore has a slightly higher rating in the market when you factor in futures I felt comfortable putting Kansas City a point below.
Remember, the market is telling us that Los Angeles is two points worse, so we have to put it on the 84 line with Detroit. That means the Chargers are equal to the Lions and just three points worse than the Eagles, Bills and Ravens. It also means the market currently rates Los Angeles as a point better than the likes of the Packers, Commanders, 49ers, Bengals and Rams. Once again, that might be where you rate Los Angeles, but is not where I rate them.
This leads me toward another potential early play on the Chiefs. I am entering the 2025 season with the thought of playing Kansas City under its win total – I don’t believe they can continue to get the coin flips to land heads – but this power rating on Los Angeles is too high.
