NFL Week 12:

Another week has come and gone in the NFL and those results shape the betting markets for the following week. Week 12 is light on marquee games, but could be quite interesting in the gambling arena. There are six teams on a bye, so we only have 13 games and eight of them feature road favorites, including one double-digit road favorite.

Of the four favored home teams, three are laying more than a touchdown. So, yeah, we don’t have a lot of headline-grabbing games, but we have a lot of fascinating spreads and totals.

 

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Here is the Week 12 NFL Odds Report:

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 39.5) at Cleveland Browns

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon)

Everybody will point to the difficult spot for the Steelers, who stopped a game-tying two-point conversion attempt to beat the Ravens in Week 11. But, every spot seems difficult for the Browns, who really felt like they quit in the second half against the Saints. It is a short week for a bad team and one that has nothing to play for the rest of the way. The lookahead markets had this in the 3 or 3.5 range. It’s a little surprising to not really see it move. Maybe bettors will move it on Monday or Tuesday.

Detroit Lions (-8, 50.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The move to go back to Anthony Richardson paid immediate dividends for the Colts, who went to the Meadowlands and upset the Jets. The Lions put presumably the final nail into Doug Pederson’s coffin with a 52-6 laugher against the Jaguars. I’ll be very curious to see how this line moves as the week goes along. The Colts looked very competent on offense and have been a pretty good defense all season. But, it seems like public bettors will lay any number with Detroit. This line was adjusted up from 7 to 8, a move I’m not sure I agree with given that the Jags stink and the Colts had a more impressive win.

Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5, 41.5) at Carolina Panthers

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Can we trust the Chiefs to win a game by margin? They haven’t really done it this season, but the Panthers are really, really bad. This is not an ideal spot for KC coming off of the Buffalo game, plus Carolina is off of a bye. And, yet, early action hit KC in the lookahead markets to leave the line at 10.5 going into the weekend. I guess we’ll see if any brave souls are willing to take the Panthers.

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 39.5) at Chicago Bears

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Bears looked shockingly competent with new OC Thomas Brown against the Packers, but ultimately lost when their game-winning FG attempt was blocked. It was the best data point for Caleb Williams in quite some time, if not all season, but the game still ended with a loss. The Vikings, meanwhile, took advantage of a bad Titans team to scoop another win. Outside of a 98-yard coverage mistake, Minnesota dominated the game. My guess is that this shapes up as one of those Pros vs. Joes games with sharp bettors willing to try the Bears based on the difference in Williams’ play, while public bettors are influenced by all the negative press on Chicago into backing Minny.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 43) at New York Giants

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The rare NFC vs. NFC game on CBS features teams that were on bye weeks in Week 11, so there isn’t much to say about this one. The line hasn’t moved at all from the lookahead number because there were no developments to force an adjustment. As bettors start thinking about these two teams again, the line has moved to 4 at some shops and sits 3.5 at others after being -3 when it opened.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-7.5, 45.5)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Rams racked up 7.9 yards per play against the Patriots defense and the Dolphins scored 34 points against the Raiders, so there’s a chance we could see this line tick up a bit. At the same time, market confidence doesn’t seem high in the Dolphins, even with Tua Tagovailoa back. Books at 7.5 will have definite teaser exposure on Miami with the attractiveness of moving them down to 1.5, so that will be something to keep an eye on as well.

Denver Broncos (-4.5, 40.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

After completely dismantling the Falcons at home, the Broncos head to Vegas to take on a Raiders team that nobody believes in. This also feels like a large coaching mismatch between Antonio Pierce and Sean Payton. That said, the Raiders did jump out to a 10-0 lead in the first meeting…before losing 34-18. Bo Nix is playing way better than he was at that point in the season and that could lead to some more Denver money, even though the lookahead line was 3 here and that has clearly been adjusted.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-1, 47.5)

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Seahawks gave it their all against the 49ers in a very physical game, while the Cardinals enjoyed their bye week. Arizona has been the benefactor of some outstanding coaching from HC Jonathan Gannon and OC Drew Petzing. Seattle had a thoroughly impressive win over San Francisco and didn’t get much love for it based on this line. I’ll be curious to see if they do early in the week as bettors update their numbers and start attacking.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 47)

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Likely the game of the day on Sunday, the 49ers are a team that bettors seem very interested in right now with Christian McCaffrey back. The Packers blocked a game-winning field goal attempt from the Bears after taking a lot of money last week to grow into a bigger favorite. They did not reward bettors at all and you have to wonder if they’ll find any of the same love from those putting out their hard-earned money. The 49ers were originally favored in the lookahead market, but that is not the case now after their loss to Seattle.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 47.5) at Los Angeles Rams

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

The Eagles are on the half-bye here, as they beat the Commanders on Thursday Night Football to take control of the NFC East. The Rams went all the way out to New England on a short week after Monday Night Football and took care of business in a road favorite role. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua fully engaged now, they’re definitely a much different team. This is a pretty good game for Sunday night and one that will draw a big betting handle and a whole lot of attention. These games with a lot of fantasy football players draw a ton of player prop action as well.

Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The “Harbowl” is quite a Monday Night affair. The Ravens lost to the Steelers and their offense looked very pedestrian, which is going to be the part of this game under the microscope because the Chargers defense has been playing at a very high level, especially with generating sacks and pressure since their bye. However, we’d be talking about Baltimore in a different light if one-time automatic kicker Justin Tucker wasn’t missing field goals. I’m excited to see where this line goes.

Also, with the total at 47 or 48 in the market, it is worth noting that the Chargers went into Week 11 with one game over 40 total points.

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