NFL Week 12 reactions and futures

By
Mike Somich
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418
 

 

 

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Week 12 will go down in the books as a very fun and interesting week. Favorites dominated, we had our 50th starting quarterback of the season, and we lost a second coach.

The AFC playoff picture is becoming more clouded with Cleveland, Buffalo and Houston losing while the Colts and Steelers got wins. Cleveland is going to be a very interesting team to make numbers moving forward. The injuries keep coming for them, losing Amari Cooper, Myles Garrett and Dorian Thompson-Robinson during the game versus Denver this week. Denzel Ward also missed the game and the Broncos picked on Greg Newsome in his absence. Keep an eye on the injury report and the beat writers in Cleveland this week. I find it hard to believe the Browns will go back to PJ Walker at QB, which means the return of Joe Flacco may be imminent.

NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups

Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games this week:

Move them up: Green Bay Packers

This one should not come as a surprise after they absolutely thumped the Lions on Thanksgiving! Jordan Love has now played his best two games in back-to-back weeks, and it’s no surprise that those games coincide with a healthy Christian Watson. Other weapons have started to step up too for this Packers offense. Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed are now making plays on a weekly basis, and, prior to his IR stint, Luke Musgrave blossomed at tight end. Injuries are still a concern for this offense, but with playmakers on the outside and a scheme that has pushed the ball down the field the last two weeks, they can put points on the board.

This week’s game versus the Chiefs will be an interesting measuring stick in the market for them. With this adjustment, I made the game Kansas City -6, and I am on market with this Chiefs team based on the last couple of weeks. If we see a +7 pop for the Packers, I’ll take a slice.

Move them down: Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals         

Yes, we are dropping quite a few teams this week and for a variety of reasons.

The Seahawks are the first team featured in this section in back-to-back weeks, and the reason is simple. This offense is broken. They cannot put the football in the endzone. Seattle managed just two field goals of offense on Thursday and have struggled to score in the red zone all season. To amplify the problem, Jason Peters saw meaningful snaps for them on the offensive line. He is just not good, and the fact that he is the best available tells you all you need to know about a unit that had upside heading into the season.

The Jets and Bengals get downgraded for the same reason. The backup QB was simply worse than I thought. Tim Boyle is a downgrade, and a pretty decent one at that, from Zach Wilson (ouch) and Jake Browning just is not ready to play in the NFL. The Bengals only scoring drive of the game featured a play where the ball was deflected and should have been intercepted but made its way into JaMarr Chase’s hands, and he was brilliant after the catch.

Early Week 13 Plays

Week 12 provided the worst beat of the year for this section. Two pick-sixes in the final minute of the first half, including one on a Hail Mary and two touchdowns in the final five minutes of a blowout sent the Dolphins and Jets Over the 42 total. With 28 points scored in those six minutes and the total only getting to 47, we were on the right side and came up short. We fight on, now sitting at 7-4 here for the year.

It’s teaser time! I want to make sure to get out front of two games that are sure to move and push 9, if not 10, by kickoff. The Cowboys are laying 8.5 at home versus the Seahawks and that awful offensive line. Dallas should extend Thanksgiving a week and absolutely feast on Geno Smith and that offense.

Monday night, another downgraded team, the Bengals, travel to Jacksonville. The Jags offense should be able to pick a number in this one and move the ball all over a Cincinnati defense that allowed the Steelers to go over the 400-yard mark for the first time in 58 games.

The bet: 6-Point Teaser – Cowboys -2.5 / Jags -2

MVP Market

Well well well, we are sitting on a nice ticket with Hurts at +700 to win the MVP, and he is now the clear favorite in the market at +125. To be honest, that is a little short. He could very easily lose the next two games vs. San Franciso and at Dallas and be back to the +400 range in the blink of an eye.

The problem is there really is not anyone else who has a clear path to overtake him. I’m still not a believer that Mahomes can win the award based on his stats this year vs. last year. I mentioned Dak at +1500 last week; he’s been bet down slightly from there and probably has the most realistic way to win. If the Eagles lose the next two games and Dallas wins, they would be tied for the division and possibly the #1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers would be in the mix as well, but I still believe Shanahan gets the lion’s share of the credit for their success.

I already bet the 49ers this week at -1.5. Make sure you are watching the Handle from 6-7 p.m. PT on Sunday to get all the early bets and line reactions for the next week. I went a little larger than normal since I am sitting with a Hurts ticket for MVP.

Season Long Bets Recap

Win Totals:

Titans u6.5 (bet after Week 1)

Jags +125 to win the AFC South (bet after Week 3)

Chargers to miss the playoffs -115 (bet after Week 4)

Jalen Hurts MVP +700 (after Week 5)

Cardinals u4.5 Wins (after Week 5)

Broncos u4.5 Wins +100 (after Week 6)

 

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