NFL Survivor Picks

Week 12 has arrived. If you are still alive in your Survivor pool, the end of the season is only seven short weeks away. It is also seven long weeks away. Those who have avoided what felt like an inordinate amount of landmines early in the season and have avoided the recent ones have to be happy with where things stand and the immense amount of options this week.

You really don’t have to look hard to find a Survivor team this week. They are everywhere. We have five favorites of a touchdown or more and two favorites of six points as of Thursday. It’s all about which of those teams you have available at this stage of the game.

 

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As I’ve said before, my goal here is to try and pick out a team that a lot of people have available or one that I haven’t used yet as the article pick.

Once again, we’ll consult the Survivor tools over at PoolGenius and look at this week’s options.

Week 12 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Detroit Lions (-7.5) over Indianapolis Colts

The newly-minted Super Bowl favorites are over a touchdown favorite against the Colts. I do think that this spread might be inflated a bit, as the Colts offense looked rather good with Anthony Richardson back at the helm and a gameplan that seemed to better fit what he does well. That being said, should we expect the Lions to lose to anybody with how they’re playing?

Even when Jared Goff throws five interceptions, they still win. Last week’s systematic beatdown of Jacksonville was impressive, regardless of opponent. It’s another indoor game for Goff, though it’s supposed to be 55 and sunny in Indy on Sunday. Everything’s coming up Lions, even the stuff that doesn’t pertain to the game!

It is crazy to think that as good as the Lions are, this might be their biggest remaining favorite role of the rest of the regular season except for Thursday. And that’s what you have to keep in mind. If Thanksgiving is its own week in your Survivor contest, the Lions are a better choice than anybody else on Thursday. If it is not, you can either take them on Thursday or take your chances with the remaining schedule of Packers, Bills, Bears*, 49ers*, and Vikings, with the starred games on the road.

The Lions are great, but a December 22 game at Soldier Field would terrify me, even if they’re going to be a clear road favorite.

PoolGenius has the Lions with a 73% win probability this week.

Washington Commanders (-10.5) over Dallas Cowboys

So, I actually took Washington for this article when they played Carolina. It was about as stress-free of a winner as you could get with the 40-7 triumph. For those who still have Washington available, either this week or next week are your weeks to do it.

The Commanders have dropped two in a row to the Steelers and Eagles, but the only team in the NFL with a bigger step down in class this week is the Chiefs. Washington battles a Dallas team on a short week with Cooper Rush and a lame-duck head coach going through the motions of the rest of the season with a very uninvested team.

Only the Lions, Ravens, and Bills have scored more points than the Commanders. The Cowboys have scored 16 points in Rush’s two starts and have allowed 68.

The Commanders have the second-highest win probability at 81% per PoolGenius.

Miami Dolphins (-7.5) over New England Patriots

DraftKings felt the pressure of holding on 7 and moved this to 7.5, while the rest of the market is holding 7 with extra juice. Either way, the Dolphins, who have the top passing offense by Dropback EPA since Tua Tagovailoa returned, are being viewed as a team that should handle its business this week.

The Patriots have a terrible offensive line. Drake Maye is doing everything he can to overcome it and he is having a truly admirable season. But, the team simply isn’t very good. The defense is a borderline bottom-five unit in some categories and it is not borderline in others. Full disclosure, I like the Dolphins -7, so I could totally get on board with picking them. The problem is I did that last week in this article. So, I won’t do it again, but if you have them, you certainly can.

As much of a dysfunctional disaster as the Jets are, this is the biggest favorite role for Miami the rest of the way with a schedule of Packers*, Jets, Texans*, 49ers, Browns*, Jets*. They also play four of six on the road after this.

PoolGenius has Miami at 74% this week and nothing higher than 60% after, so if you’re running low on good teams, this is a spot to consider Miami.

Houston Texans (-8) over Tennessee Titans

The Texans got Nico Collins back and unleashed the beast with Joe Mixon in the comfortable win over Dallas. It is a short week and the Texans haven’t had their bye week yet, so there are probably some banged-up bodies, but this should be as much of a layup as you can get in the NFL.

The Titans have only won two games and four of their last five losses have been by double digits. They’ve scored more than 20 points once this season. Even if you don’t love the Texans, you have to think CJ Stroud and his collection of weapons can get into the 20s. That should be all it takes.

The Texans are worth holding on to if you have the chance because they play Jacksonville next week. It’s on the road, but they’re a good option in a week with pretty limited options. If you’re like me, you’ve already used Washington and Denver, two of next week’s better choices.

Houston is 79% to win per PoolGenius.

Week 12 NFL Survivor Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (-11) over Carolina Panthers

It is Week 12 and I have not yet used the Chiefs in this article. That changes today. Honestly, Kansas City’s unconvincing wins and Pat Mahomes’ TD/INT ratio have been enough to give me pause. That’s crazy to say about a team that lost for the first time this year last week, but I never felt supremely confident in taking them.

If Thanksgiving/Black Friday don’t matter to you, then KC is the obvious pick. I’ve been using Circa Survivor rules since this started and I’ll be writing the article earlier next week (Tuesday or Wednesday) to include the Thanksgiving holiday. Because I structured this knowing the holiday mattered, I have both the Lions and Chiefs for next week.

So, I’ll roll with KC here because I want to save Houston for Week 13 and can use Detroit on Thanksgiving against the Bears. So, spoiler alert, but those are next week’s two picks barring injury.

The Chiefs off a loss against a very overmatched Panthers team doesn’t need a whole lot of explanation. This is one of the weakest home-field advantages in the NFL. KC should have a renewed sense of purpose off the loss. It’s pretty self-explanatory.

The Chiefs are 84% to win and the highest-ranked team in win probability per PoolGenius.

Week 12 Survivor Pick: Chiefs

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