NFL Week 13 reactions and futures

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A wild Week 13 was another rough one in Circa Survivor. You must feel for the people who had two of the top three selections in the Steelers and Jaguars who both lost their starting quarterbacks during brutal losses. Injuries were a major theme of the weekend and will ultimately affect the AFC Playoff race. Four of the teams who currently lead their division or are in a wild card spot are now missing their #1 QB with just five weeks left. All eyes will be on Trever Lawerance and his ankle heading into Week 14. Early reports are a sprained ankle, but it looked much worse on the field. We will see if he is able to go in a very important game in Cleveland this weekend.

The 49ers continued to dominate the top teams in the league and now have a full 3-point edge on every other team in my power rankings. It has been nearly four years since I team held a full field goal edge in my rankings over the rest of the league. Injuries will be the key for them down the stretch. At full health, they look like a juggernaut.

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Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games this week:

Move them up: Los Angeles Rams

While this team was winning with smoke and mirrors early in the season, they are now winning with a balanced offensive attack since the return of Kyren Williams. In two games since his return, he has over 300 yards total offense and three touchdowns. Cooper Kupp will be two weeks removed from his absence next week as well and should be back to full health. With all the pieces back in place, this offense has a good chance to keep humming this week versus a Ravens defense that has been gettable this season.

One note on this upgrade. The final score versus the Browns was better than it looked. The game was 20-19 late before a back-breaking interception from Joe Flacco, who played well outside of that throw. The Rams tacked on 14 additional points after that play with about five minutes left in the game.

Move them down: Kansas City Chiefs  

It’s time to drop the reigning Super Bowl champs in a major way for the first time all season. The offense has still not come around after twelve games, and now the defense is getting banged up. They will be down to the third-string linebacker this week and lost their second-best pass rusher in the game as well. This was the fifth straight week that they have failed to play a full 60 minutes. In each game, one half has been at expectation, but the other has fallen short.

This week’s matchup with the Bills now looms large. The Chiefs need to get right, but the Bills could not have asked for a better week when on a bye. With Pittsburgh and Cleveland losing and Jacksonville possibly out a QB, their 6-6 mark is now right in the mix despite the difficult schedule coming home.

 

Early Week 14 Plays

Back-to-back tough beats here with our teaser getting massive closing line value on Monday night only to see the Jags go down. We are now 7-5 on the season.

I was hoping to play the Under in Jaguars vs. Browns this weekend since it’s going to be awful weather, rain with 20-30 MPH winds, but the line reopened at 32. I’d still lean in that direction, but the weather can change, and we are late to the number now.

Instead, let’s play Under 37.5 in Carolina vs Saints. This is a game I played Under in the first matchup, and it’s only gotten worse for both of these teams. The Saints are out two quarterbacks, and now Winston will be starting at QB. The Panthers are starting to get healthier on the defensive side and still can’t move the football. I made this number 35 so happy to get a couple of points of value.

The bet: Panthers vs Saints u37.5

MVP Market

We have seen a complete flip in the MVP markets in just a week. Two players mentioned over the last few weeks have now ascended to the top of the board with Purdy and Prescott now sitting as your favorites with Hurts just behind.

This week’s game between the Eagles and the Cowboys acts as an elimination game between Hurts and Prescott. If the Eagles win, they should run the table, get the #1 seed and Hurts will be MVP. If they lose, he is most likely out of the running unless both Dallas and San Francisco stumble.

It is hard to recommend anyone down the board since both San Francisco and Philadelphia have rather easy schedules coming. Prescott seems like the least likely winner at this point since they do have a couple of difficult games left and would need to beat the Eagles this week.

Super Bowl Market

We are going to add another bet to the recap and look to the Super Bowl this time around. Right now, you can get -125 on the NFC to win the Super Bowl. I’ve got that number much closer to the -145 price right now, and when you look at the contenders, it’s easy to see why. All of the AFC teams have major flaws in them while the top three from the NFC, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Dallas, would all be meaningful favorites over any AFC team. I played this one for 3 units this week because if the match plays out correctly, you could see an NFC price at over -200 this year.

Season Long Bets Recap

Win Totals:

Titans u6.5 (bet after Week 1)

Jags +125 to win the AFC South (bet after Week 3)

Chargers to miss the playoffs -115 (bet after Week 4)

Jalen Hurts MVP +700 (after Week 5)

Cardinals u4.5 Wins (after Week 5)

Broncos u4.5 Wins +100 (after Week 6)

NFC to win the Super Bowl -125 for 3 units (after Week 12)