NFL Survivor Picks

If you are still alive in NFL Survivor, Week 14 is the most important week of the season. Every week is the most important week of the season, as it has been each time you advance. The question still remains, though, as to whether or not you deploy your best weapon now or save it because you may need it later. That conundrum grows and grows as you keep going and as the field gets smaller and smaller.

Way back when the season got underway, I talked about the internal debate of trying to go 1-0 every week or go 18-0 (or 20-0 for Circa Survivor and contests like it). Take stock of the teams you still have available. Are you set up for success the rest of the way or do you have some extremely difficult decisions with favorites that wouldn’t be at the top of your list otherwise? Do you have to take an untrustworthy team? By this stage, a lot of people probably do, so you aren’t alone.

 

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But it is still critically important to look at the team schedules the rest of the way and make sure that you are using the team in question at the most optimal time possible. The Survivor tools over at PoolGenius can help with that, and so can this week’s article.

Week 14 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5) over Carolina Panthers

The scheduling spot is not optimal for the Eagles coming off of a game against the Ravens with a matchup against the Steelers on deck. But, the biggest favorite on the board still appears to be the safest choice available.

My goal with this article at this time of the season is to try and use teams that those still alive in Survivor contests are likely to have available. I doubt Philly is available for most of them, but it is a pretty big no-brainer to give them a shot if they are, given that we don’t have another favorite bigger than -7.

The Eagles are the most likely favorite to win at 87% per PoolGenius.

Miami Dolphins (-5.5) over New York Jets

As I wrote about in my NFL best bets article this week, I really like the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense are humming at a high level and the defense has been better than average over the last few weeks. The strength of schedule has absolutely played a role, but it’s not like the Jets have a scary offense.

What is truly scary for the Jets is the way that the defense has played since Robert Saleh was relieved of his duties. That unit going up against the Dolphins with no serious weather considerations seems very favorable to those with Miami available.

I called for them in Week 11 as an article pick and I’m trying to take each team once, even though this “entry” was grounded before it even took off with the hapless Bengals in Week 1. Nevertheless, Miami is a great option if you have them.

PoolGenius is at 68% for the Dolphins to win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) over Las Vegas Raiders

The Bucs do have a hobbled QB in Baker Mayfield and I think that is a little bit of a red flag, but this also doesn’t seem like a game that Tampa Bay would lose. The Raiders have lost eight in a row since getting off to a 2-2 start and Aidan O’Connell has been sick this week and missed practice. That would put the ball in Desmond Ridder’s hands.

Bucky Irving is also pretty beaten up for the Bucs. Are there enough injuries to stay away? Maybe. The Bucs’ remaining schedule is Chargers*, Cowboys*, Panthers, Saints after this week, with the starred games on the road. They did get a real scare last week from Carolina, but that isn’t a bad Week 17 option to have if you make it to that point.

On the other hand, Carolina knows Tampa Bay well and Dave Canales knows Tampa Bay really well. Of course, the Bucs may also be playing for the NFC South title or something at that point, so they could be hyper-motivated. But, I do think most people still alive have the Bucs available, so I gave them a lot of thought.

PoolGenius has the Bucs at 68% to win this week.

Week 14 NFL Survivor Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) over Cleveland Browns

We just watched the Browns beat the Steelers in a snow globe a couple of weeks ago, but I fully expect Pittsburgh to get revenge here. The best part of the Pittsburgh offense is Russell Wilson’s ability to go downfield. That was limited due to the visibility and the stiff wind. Yet he still threw for 270 yards. The Browns were 1-for-10 on third down in that game, but 4-for-4 on fourth down.

The expectation should be for Pittsburgh to win the turnover battle based on what we’ve seen from Jameis Winston. The Browns haven’t swept the season series against the Steelers since 1988. They’ve had consecutive wins, including the playoff win in 2021 and the two-game winning streak that they’re on now, but they haven’t swept the season series in 36 years.

After facing Cleveland, the Steelers play the Eagles*, Ravens*, Chiefs, and Bengals. They play three games in 10 days with that Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs stretch. They do have some extra time before playing Cincinnati in Week 18, but a head-to-head win against Baltimore in Week 16 likely renders that game useless for Pittsburgh, unless home-field is up for grabs.

To me, this is the best place to use them. While the Browns are decidedly better on offense with Winston, they are still 22nd in EPA/play since he took over. The Steelers are 17th in that span. Also, since Winston took the helm in Week 8, Cleveland’s defense is 28th in EPA/play. Injuries haven’t helped, but I also feel like teams have figured out this Jim Schwartz defense and I fully expect Pittsburgh to adjust this week. And I can save the Bucs for down the line.

PoolGenius has the Steelers second in win probability at 73%.

Week 14 Survivor Pick: Steelers

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