NFL Week 15 best bets from the T Shoe Index

By
Tyler Shoemaker
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1572
 

NFL Week 15 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index

Welcome back to the game show known as, “Who’s playing quarterback for whom?” The Houston Texans saw star rookie QB CJ Stroud go down last week against the Jets, the Raiders are reportedly set to start Aidan O’Connell, the Jets are playing “will he or won’t he” with Zach Wilson, and Jake Browning is currently on a tear for the Bengals, to name a few QB situations that probably aren’t what those teams envisioned heading into the 2023 season. 

 

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Last week, the Bears somehow held the Lions to 13 points, killing our over bet; however, the Cowboys held up their end of our best bets and demolished the Eagles, 33-13. The slates honestly continue to get uglier as new QBs go under center, teams embrace tanking and others begin clinching playoff berths/seeds, making motivation a real factor in these handicaps. 

Let’s dig in to what my T Shoe Index indicates hold the best value this week:

NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups | Week 15 Hub | Expert NFL Picks

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5), O/U 37.5

The Patriots have been bad this season. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. So much so, that this week it was reported that the team intends to cut ties with head coach Bill Belichick after the season. Enter this game. What better way for the hoodie-wearing hall-of-famer to say “watch this” than to go out and beat the defending champs? TSI projects the Chiefs as 5.5 point favorites, so we’re getting decent value on the number through the keys of 6 and 7, but I also love the spot here for New England, a team I’ve admittedly tried to stay far away from this season. The Patriots are just No. 29 in my power ratings, going against the No. 5 overall team in Kansas City. Matchup wise, the Patriots defense ranks 8th in TSI, facing an underwhelming (by their standards) No. 14 offense. On the flip side, the Chiefs’ No. 2 defense will get the opportunity to play against the offense ranked dead last in TSI. What could go wrong?

Pick: Patriots +7.5 (Play to +7)

Cleveland Browns (-3) vs Chicago Bears, O/U 38.5

These are two teams that I’ve loved to bet overs on throughout the year, and now they’re facing off in a non-divisional game with a total set below 40 in a game that I project to total 45 points. The Browns’ offense is No. 10 in TSI, taking on the No. 26 defense of Chicago, while the Bears’ offense is up to No. 20 but will face the No. 11 TSI defense. Both of these teams have had a propensity to play high-scoring, wonky games, so I’m signing up for some chaotic and entertaining football here. With Justin Fields’ electric running ability and Joe Flacco being capable of throwing TDs to either team, I like points in this one.

Pick: Over 38.5 (Play to 40.5)

To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.

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