NFL Week 15 Betting Splits Systems Update:

The DK Betting Splits have taken off this season in their popularity. They have always been one of the most touted links on the VSiN.com website and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors.

If you’re not familiar, these are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In preseason articles published in the 2024 Football Betting Guides, I outlined different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed during the 2022 season for both college and pro football.

 

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the HANDLE has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. The record for this year has been 34-28 AYS, including 21-9 ATS backing road teams. It’s hard to see this one continuing. We will continue to recommend that if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in a NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.

System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, MIAMI, NY JETS, CINCINNATI, CAROLINA, DENVER, LA CHARGERS, ARIZONA, GREEN BAY, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority HANDLE bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. So far in 2024, this is 20-17, but the bulk of the season’s 96 divisional games are still yet to come.

System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of BETS staked its side in a NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%), but 20-15 ATS in ‘24.

System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023 & 2024, DK majority NUMBER of BETS groups have actually been quite sharp, as this majority group is 60-50 ATS (54.5%), performing at nearly the exact same level in each season. This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two less non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, LA CHARGERS, ARIZONA, ATLANTA

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the ’22 season, when the majority number of BETS has backed ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog. HOWEVER, this system is 28-18 ATS for ’24, a major factor as to why bettors are doing well overall. I suspect if (or when) this turns, DK will regain the advantage.

System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, NY JETS, CINCINNATI, BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY, GREEN BAY, ATLANTA

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of BETS was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September ‘22. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain”, they can do well.

System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): MIAMI, DALLAS, PITTSBURGH

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority HANDLE & number of BETS have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) & 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.

System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the HANDLE has backed the team with less season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, CAROLINA, PITTSBURGH, BUFFALO

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The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority HANDLE has backed a team in a MONEY LINE wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in ’24, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, a ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.

System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON ML, CAROLINA ML, PITTSBURGH ML, BUFFALO ML

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority HANDLE bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on MONEY LINES. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, a ROI of -43.1% in ‘24. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.

System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON ML, CINCINNATI ML, BALTIMORE ML, KANSAS CITY ML, DENVER ML, ARIZONA ML, MINNESOTA ML, ATLANTA ML

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #11: Majority NUMBER of BETS groups have been at their best in ’24 on MONEY LINES in the Sunday AFTERNOON games when backing small favorites (4-points or less, and approximately -220 or less). These groups boast an impressive 33-10 record for +18.93 units of profit & a ROI of +44%! These include the games in the 1:00 PM ET-4:30 PM ET starting slots, and with more choices at these times, bettors are faring well.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON ML, NY JETS ML, DETROIT ML, LA CHARGERS ML

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These next systems cover totals…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since ’22, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tick higher. Since mid-2023, majority HANDLE bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November ’23, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WAS-NO, BAL-NYG, DAL-CAR, IND-DEN, CHI-MIN

UNDER – PIT-PHI

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the HANDLE has been on the UNDER in a NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for NUMBER of BETS has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CIN-TEN, ATL-LVR

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for super majority on HANDLE for betting OVER’s was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the OVER looks too obvious, it usually loses.

System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): WAS-NO, MIA-HOU, BAL-NYG, DAL-CAR, BUF-DET, TB-LAC

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the OVER trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of HANDLE has been on the OVER, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the OVER. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.

System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-HOU, DAL-CAR, BAL-NYG

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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