NFL Week 16 Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

Here are my NFL Week 16 best bets:

 

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 48) vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys return home after cashing a rocking chair +3 for us last week, but this is a different beast. The ability to run the football was a huge positive for Dallas last week in Carolina, but it should not be available this week.

When the running game isn’t working for Dallas, it puts an abundant amount of pressure on Cooper Rush and this pass offense, especially in a negative game start, to push the football downfield. That is something Rush has struggled to do since being inserted as the starting QB.

On the other side of the ball, this Bucs offense matches up well against Dallas. Bucky Irving should be able to get the run game going, and Mike Evans has another positive matchup. The fact we are indoors for this game also favors the Bucs, who looked explosive in Los Angeles last week.

The main concern will be the pass rush of the Cowboys versus the offensive line for the Bucs. If Tampa holds up, they should be able to pick their score and force the Cowboys to chase. I do not see Dallas having success in that game state, so let’s lay it here with the Bucs.

NFL Week 16 Best Bets: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 45)

News came down today that Watt should be a go for this spot, and the market responded with a half-point move in the Steelers’ direction. George Pickens is still questionable to play, but reading between the lines, it seems like he is going to miss another week for Pittsburgh.

We saw the offense struggle last week against the Eagles when Pittsburgh stepped up in competition without Pickens, and this matchup concerns me as well. Without the big plays of Pickens, this offense is not efficient enough to sustain drives.

The Ravens should have success on the ground against a Steelers defense that has struggled against the run game over the past five weeks, which should open up the pass as well.

While I do not love laying it in the AFC North, especially against the Steelers, I am going to do so here since all the matchups point to the Ravens.

NFL Week 16 Best Bets: Baltimore Ravens -6.5

Prop Plays

James Conner Over 79.5 Rushing Yards
Carolina has struggled to stop the run all season, and I do not see why that changes here. Arizona is most effective when they run to set up the pass. All of this lines up for a big game from James Connor. Last week, Dowdle went for 6 yards per carry against this defense. Conner should have similar success. Let’s play the over and ladder up to 100+ rushing yerds.

Brian Thomas Jr. Over 71.5 Receiving Yards
Since Mac Jones took over as the starting quarterback, one thing has been consistent: Brian Thomas Jr. has been peppered with targets. Over those four games, he’s averaged just under 11 targets and 87 yards per game. This week’s matchup with the Raiders should not slow those numbers down. He’s another ladder candidate.

Other NFL Week 16 Best Bets:
Jayden Daniels Over 39.5 Rushing Yards
Malik Nabers Over 65.5 Receiving Yards

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